Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-06 11:39:49

Constituency Profile



Green, Arthur Alexander

Henshall, Michael

Lali, Harry

Tegart, Jackie L.

Jackie Tegart

Population (2014):34034
Deviation from average:-35.90%
Geographical Area:34830 sq km
2013 Election Result
Jackie Tegart
Harry Lali*
John Kidder
Michael Beauclair
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
Mainstreet poll gives the BC Liberals a 24 point lead for this riding and that type of margin is way too much to be wrong or overcome. It looks like the environmental wing has won out over the blue collar wing and this is good news for the NDP in Vancouver proper, South Island, and inner suburbs, bad news in the interior.
08/05/2017 South Islander
Projections were just updated in a number of districts including Fraser-Nicola, Delta North, and Surrey Fleetwood. It's probably due to the Mainstreet riding polls in these districts. The one here shows Tegart getting double Lali's vote!
20/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
Harry Lali is the type of career politician that people get really tired of. He's won four times and been defeated twice in this riding, it's his seventh time running. I don't think he's gotten better with age and over his career and his party hasn't done him any favours with an increasingly urban-issues platform. I too am unconvinced that Lali is any sort of asset for the NDP in this riding and in fact I get the sense he has become a liability, evidenced by the increasingly fractious NDP nomination meetings that have become a regular feature in this riding. Without a Conservative candidate here, and with whatever boost the Greens might have, what is so different from last time that Harry is going to surmount his 5-point deficit from 2013, with his local riding association divided? I actually still believe this is one of the last remaining swing ridings in the Interior -- but the NDP has got to get rid of Harry Lali if they want to get back into contention here.
06/04/2017 South Islander
Contrary to Crystal Ball's prediction, I think Lali's nomination seals the deal for the BCLs in this riding. This territory is not naturally that favourable to the NDP:
1991 - Lali won Y-L by less than 5% against a SoCred incumbent when the NDP beat the SoCreds by more than 16% (there was no BCL or any other candidates on the ballot in this district).
1996 - Lali held with 41% due to a vote split (BCL and Reform won combined 54%, plus PDA another 4%)
2001 - Y-L went BCL by a bigger margin than the province as a whole 60/17 vs 58/22 (though Lali did not seek reelection).
2005 - BCL incumbent is not on the ballot, and Lali retakes it by 8%. The BCLs did poorly in much of the interior due to cuts, also losing both Cariboo ridings that most thought they would hold.
2009 - BCL tread water in the Cariboo-Thompson, managing to retake Chilcotin. The whole election was a rematch of 2005 with very few changes. People in the interior were still mad at Campbell for his first-term cuts.
2013 - NDP absolutely collapsed in Cariboo-Thompson. They were expected to reduce the BCL to just Kamloops-South Thompson but ended up getting completely shut out. They seemed to be running an urban/environmentally-focused campaign that helped them in the Burrard Inlet and the South Island, but hurt them everywhere else.
2017 - There is no indication that the NDP have either improved in the interior or changed their approach. They are still clumsily trying to balance the environmental and the labour vote, while the BCL use wedge issues to knock them off balance. BCL should now get a slight incumbency boost. Lali may be a veteran, but he is still a veteran who lost last time and who is now clearly out of favour with the NDP leadership. If the NDP want to retake the Cariboo districts or make a play in Kamloops, it seems unlikely that the NDP would deploy resources to try to get Lali his seat back. Right now, BCL and Cons have a combined majority of support in the interior, but the Cons have no money, no leader and 6 candidates to date.
If the NDP manage win this election big and improve in the interior, they could take this one back. I just don't see any of that happening when the latest poll only has them at 36% among decided and leaning voters 2 weeks before an election.
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
This riding should comfortably come back to NDP. Experienced veteran NDP candidate.
17 03 07 South Islander
NDP nomination disputes are front and centre. Horgan is trying to pave the way for Lower Nicola Band Chief Aaron Sam against a 16-year former incumbent Harry Lali. No matter who ends up as the NDP candidate, the well will be poisoned. The NDP have also reaffirmed their opposition to pipelines, which won't help them win this one back.
17 01 13 BCer
This was a surprise pick-up for the BC Liberals in 2013, with municipal councillor Jackie Tegart defeating long-time NDP incumbent (and former leadership contender) Harry Lali, who had represented the riding for 18 years (2005-2013, 1991-2001). Despite this record, Lali never won the seat by more than 10% and it was always viewed as one that could swing.
Since 2013Tegaart has proved to be a strong caucus performer, and should she win again, will has a very strong chance of being appointed to cabinet. Tegart is running again, although who she faces is the real question.
Lali is indeed back, running for the NDP nomination against Aaron Sam, a local First Nations chief. My suspicion is that Sam would perform better in the provincial election then Lali would, and many NDPers know that Lali's time has passed. Still, machine politics in nominations are hard to predict, so either could end up as candidate.
Also running is Arthur Green for the BC Green Party. The Greens have performed relatively well here in the past, consistently hitting around 8-10%. Green is also an experienced campaigner, having run in the last federal election. With the Greens up province wide, expect to see them preform strongly here, perhaps even getting 20% or so.
However, they will not win. Tegart will most likely be re-elected, but if Sam is the candidate and the NDP win government, this could be one of the first seats to go there way of the night. Still, a likely BCL Hold.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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