Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Kamloops-South Thompson

Prediction Changed
2017-04-17 20:43:35

Constituency Profile



Bepple, Nancy

Bradshaw, Jessica Lea

Cavers, Donovan

Klossner, Beat

Stone, Todd Graham

Kamloops-South Thompson
Hon. Todd Stone

Population (2014):56410
Deviation from average:6.20%
Geographical Area:2436 sq km
2013 Election Result
Kamloops-South Thompson
Todd Graham Stone
Tom Friedman
Peter Sharp
Brian Arthur Alexander
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


Kamloops North is a battleground riding. Kamloops South is not. Bar some sort of political calamity for the Liberals they'll hold this riding even if Horgan forms government.
14/04/2017 South Islander
I'm surprised this was switched to TCTC. The NDP are just not strong enough in the Interior to take this riding. Polls have them behind the BCLs by between 5% and 19%. A significant number of voters are still indicating that they will vote for the Conservatives, who have only nominated 3 candidates in the interior, still have no leader and have until the end of the long weekend to find candidates.
People often called Kamloops (the precursor) a bellwether. However, the NDP's best result was just over 44% in 1996 when the BCL, Reform and SoCreds got more than 50% combined, and the PDA another 5%. Their 1991 result was close at just under 44%, but the BCL and SoCreds had a combined 56%. The NDP also won in 1972 with under 33% due to the SoCreds, BCLs, and PCs perfectly splitting over 67% of the vote. In 2013, Stone won this district as an open seat with over 57% of the vote (and a 225 margin), despite facing a Conservative opponent splitting the centre-right but no Green splitting the centre-left! As an incumbent cabinet minister running against an New Democrat, a Green but no Conservative (or so it appears at this point) in a district where the centre-right parties have always won a combined majority, he will easily win reelection. Kamloops may still be a be a bellwether, but a centre-right vote split has been essential to every NDP win both here and province-wide. The conditions simply do not exist for such a win.
If the NDP are able to improve in the interior (which I don't think they will) and Thompson Cariboo, they could win back Fraser Nicola and maybe Cariboo North. Chilcotin or the open KNT would be extremely ambitious, but not impossible for the NDP if the BCL somehow completely collapsed in the interior. In each of these four districts at least (or their precursors), the centre-left parties have all at least at some point in history won a combined majority of the vote. But KST is just a pipe dream.
23/03/2017 Crystal Ball
Could potentially go NDP. BC Liberals are stuck with a core around 30% but are struggling to pick up undecided voters. Too many issues such as tax dollars wasted on SCC legal fees fighting teachers for no reason. Poorly run hospital in Kamloops. Also frustration with $$$ wasted on tv ads.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Kamloops has only been won by the NDP when they've formed Governement, they also have to overcome a 22 point deficit against Todd Stone, I suspect this seat will be held.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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