Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Kootenay East

Prediction Changed
2017-02-05 11:08:00

Constituency Profile



Komar, Keith D.

Macnair, Randal

Prest, Yvonne Marie

Shypitka, Tom Glenn

Kootenay East
Hon. Bill Bennett

Population (2014):40466
Deviation from average:-23.80%
Geographical Area:13210 sq km
2013 Election Result
Kootenay East
Bill Bennett*
Norma Blissett
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
Bill Bennett no doubt got a lot of personal votes so I expect things to tighten up a little bit, but a 25 point lead in the interior where the BC Liberals are well ahead, that is way too big a gap to overcome.
10/04/2017 EVR
With the retirement of Bill Bennett, this riding reverts to a swing riding. Tom Shypitka will do well in Cranbrook as Randall McNair is not well known there. In the Elk Valley, in 2013, Bill Bennett took 61% of the popular vote. Prior to 2001, the Elk Valley with its large number of unionized workers was an NDP stronghold, however, Bennett's strong support of hunting and fishing garnered him a large following, which Shypitka has attempted to pick up on. McNair has the support of the United Steel Workers, but he does not have a strong union background himself, nor a hunting background. The riding will be much closer than in 2013, but should likely remain Liberal.
17 03 09 South Islander
This used to be an NDP stronghold along with the rest of the Kootenays until Bill Bennett, who only narrowly held on in 2005 and increased his margins since then. Bennett is uniquely popular because he is both an outspoken maverick and a cabinet minister (and has been for much of his time as MLA). I disagree that this district has moved to the right so much as Bennett developed a loyal base. Without Bennett, I'm not convinced that the BCL have any natural advantage. This might be the NDP's best opportunity for a gain in the province - and I say that as someone very bullish on the BCL overall.
17 01 29 T.C.
The major regional centre in Kootenay East is Cranbrook, which has always been centre-right in its voting habits along with the surrounding environs.
The other key area is the Elk Valley (Fernie, Sparwood, Elkford), which contains Canada's largest concentration of high-quality metallurgical coal mines, which is utilized for steel-making in Asia.
At one time several elections cycles back and previously, the unionized USW workforce voted for the BC NDP. But those voting habits have taken a sharp 180-degree turn with the BC Liberals capturing up to 74% popular vote share in the polling stations contained within the Elk Valley in 2013.
A likely underlying reason is the BC Liberals pro-resource development stance while the BC NDP has moved to more of an anti-resource development, anti-fossil fuel/climate change stance.
Even during the 2015 federal election, the federal CPC garnered up to 75% in polling stations in the Elk Valley.
Over several election cycles, the riding has morphed from a somewhat swing riding into a safe BC Liberal seat - with or without Bill Bennett at the helm who obtained a 26% winning margin in 1113.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
This is an interesting riding, despite Bill Bennett's big wins here the last two times, this remains a swing riding for all intents and purposes. Bennett is not running this time, in his place is Tom Shypitka a city councillor from Cranbrook against Randal Macnair the Former Mayor of Fernie, expect this to become clearer as the months go on.

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