Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Prince George-Mackenzie

Prediction Changed
2017-04-20 18:28:21

Constituency Profile



Crowley, Hilary

Deepak, Bobby

Morris, Mike

Prince George-Mackenzie
Hon. Mike Morris

Population (2014):46894
Deviation from average:-11.70%
Geographical Area:20511 sq km
2013 Election Result
Prince George-Mackenzie
Mike Morris
Bobby Deepak
Karen McDowell
Terry Rysz
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


20/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
TC has got it -- as long as the ecological wing of the NDP is authoring the party platform, you can kiss Prince George goodbye, which as he points out, the NDP effectively did 20 years ago. This race is a re-match featuring the incumbent cabinet minister versus the guy who lost last time with the message 'we don't want no stinkin' LNG jobs here!' Well guess what? His party is running with the same message this time, and the problem for the NDP is that people very much want those LNG jobs, (whether they ultimately materialize or not.) I would expect another Liberal win in the area of 20 points.
19/04/2017 South Islander
The BCL are leading in the interior, with about 15% undecided. But in BC, undecideds usually aren't true undecideds trying to decide between the two biggest parties - most are '10-second SoCreds' who aren't willing to admit or haven't accepted the fact that they will once again vote for the non-NDP option. Once bellwethers, the PG ridings are now BCL bastions. They only went NDP due to vote splitting (Mount Robson in 1991 was the only exception, but there was no BCL candidate). Of the precursor districts, Omineca never went NDP and PG North only ever went NDP with under 40% because the BCLs, SoCreds, Reform and/or PDA split the vote. The deadline to appear on the ballot has passed, and there are only 2 candidates here. The NDP simply cannot take this district when they're only at 35% in the interior and there is no viable centre-right alternative. Time to call this.
Correction: Hilary Crowley will be on the ballot here for the Greens. So there will be somebody splitting the centre-left, but not the centre-right.
13/04/2017 Physastr Master
Why is this TCTC while Kamloops, Penticton, the Cariboo and Vernon are all called for the liberals? They are much more likely ridings to flip. This could conceivably go NDP, but they'd need to be approaching 45% support in the province and are no where near that right now. At that point, the NDP would have about 2/3 of the ridings in the province at least, which, while possible, doesn't seem at all probable.
12/04/2017 David
The incumbent Liberal candidate, Mike Morris has a lock on this riding. I just put a Mike Morris sign on my own lawn.
Mike has grown politically in the last four years, and he will be difficult to unseat.
Bobby Deepak is the better of the two local NDP candidates, and he has chosen to run again after his defeat in 2013.
This should be a safe BC Liberal seat.
17 03 11 T.C.
The last time BC NDP won a Prince George area riding was 21 years ago back in 1996. Back then, the BC NDP was pro-resource development. Since then and especially since the 2013 election with the ?Kinder Morgan Surprise?, the BC NDP has moved to more of an anti-resource development, anti-fossil fuel/climate change stance. This stance seems geared toward SW BC voters - not interior BC voters who are mostly resource dependent.
Prince George is the hub/service centre of northern central interior BC - forestry, mining, proposed natural gas pipelines to LNG terminals on the NW BC coast, etc., and the BC Liberals hold pro-resource development stances.
Back in July, 2016, 2013 BC NDP candidate herein, Bobby Deepak (also local BC NDP constituency president) alluded that he would not run again and that BC NDP was actively looking for candidates. Apparently no other candidates stepped forward so Bobby Deepak stepped in again and was acclaimed as the 2017 BC NDP candidate. A signal right there that the BC NDP does not even seem to think that they will win this seat in 2017.
The BC Liberal incumbent won by a 21% margin in 2013. In addition, the BCCP received 4.5% here in 2013, which likely will flow to the BC Liberals as the BCCP is leaderless, insolvent, involved with in-fighting, and has no candidates nominated. Safe BC Liberal seat in 2017.
17 03 07 South Islander
I visited this riding about a week before the last election. At the time, I was expecting an NDP landslide and for the Liberals to lose either or both of the PG seats. Locals I talked to who planned to vote NDP seemed confident that the NDP didn't have a chance at either riding. And they were right. Newcomer Mike Morris held the riding by over 21%. Now with the incumbency advantage, I can't see him losing this unless the BC Liberals implode. This just isn't a bellwether anymore.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Prince George is a more favourable region for the NDP but the last time they won either of these seats they formed the Government and current polling suggests they have improved a tiny bit from last time but it's not enough to win this seat.

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