Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-01-14 13:59:37

Constituency Profile



Babcock, Kevin

Kyllo, Gregory James

Lindgren, Sylvia Jean

McCormack, Kyle

Greg Kyllo

Population (2014):56352
Deviation from average:6.10%
Geographical Area:8610 sq km
2013 Election Result
Greg Kyllo
Steve Gunner
Tom Birch
Chris George
Johanna Zalcik
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


02/05/2017 James C
Last election, the Liberals won handily even with a strong Conservative candidate siphoning some votes away. This time, the NDP are running a much stronger candidate, but the Liberals have no opponent splitting their vote. Kyllo is an incumbent, well-liked, and this riding has become increasingly conservative over the last ten years.
Signage is very heavy for Kyllo. Despite his complete lack of advocacy on behalf of his riding, locals will continue to vote against their interests and re-elect him handily.
The last poll from two different companies had the NDP pulling even with the Liberals in the interior. If things continue we could potentially see the next tier of Liberal ridings approach the TCTC zone. Lucky for the Liberals most of those ridings are filled with cabinet ministers, though Shuswap is an exception. Kyllo does have a few advantages, namely he is now an incumbent and there is no Conservative candidate in this riding. The riding is probably a longshot right now for the NDP and they won't need it to form government, but I see this riding as the most likely 'safe' Liberal interior riding to flip.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
Greg Kyllo won by a decent margin in 2013, he should do better this year

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