Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Victoria-Swan Lake

Prediction Changed
2017-05-02 20:22:05

Constituency Profile



Costigane, David

Fleming, Rob

Maxwell, Christopher Alan

Piercey, Stacey

Victoria-Swan Lake
Rob Fleming

Population (2014):51569
Deviation from average:-2.90%
Geographical Area:18 sq km
2013 Election Result
Victoria-Swan Lake
Rob Fleming*
Spencer Alexander Malthouse
Christina Bates
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


06/05/2017 Saanich resident
Fleming should win this riding, but I think it will be a lot closer than people suspect. Maxwell is running a strong campaign for the Greens in this riding and winning over a lot of liberal & ndp supporters, as well as those who don't always vote.
30/04/2017 Another Islander
Honestly, I think the TCTC call at this point is pretty fair. While, as someone mentioned below, Fleming did win this riding by 7000 points in 2013, Andrew Weaver next door won his riding with almost 8500 votes more than what the previous Green candidate in Oak Bay-Gordon Head garnered in 2009. While Chris Maxwell doesn't have the same profile that Weaver has, with the Greens surging enough to the point of leading on Vancouver Island, and with a strong leader in the neighbouring riding, I certainly see a Green win here as a possibility. That being said however, Rob Fleming is certainly a strong incumbent. But that doesn't necessarily mean that this is going to be an easy race for him this time around.
30/04/2017 JoshMartini007
That 7000 vote win was in 2013, things are a bit different now. In 2013 the Greens finished with 21% on the island in ridings they field candidates in while the NDP finished with 44%. Today they are statistically tied and given that they perform better in the Greater Victoria area it's not hard to see why we are giving them a decent chance here. To be fair the two Victoria ridings (along with Horgan's riding) will likely be the last ones in this region to flip. If I had to make a choice today it would be NDP, but I can see why it is TCTC now.
Farcical that this website would list Victoria-Swan Lake as too close to call. Fleming won by a whopping 7000 votes. Even in a scenario where the Greens make gains it won't be here.
29/04/2017 Tommy
My riding, my candidate. No talk at all in my neighbourhood about going Green. Fleming has a much better public profile and has worked hard for the riding.
Dreaming Green here is just that...dreaming!
24/04/2017 South Islander
I earlier thought that this would be an NDP cakewalk unless the Greens overtook the NDP. Well, they are leading the NDP on the Island and their support is concentrated in the south. At those support levels, they are probably going to have to win 1 or 2 seats in Victoria in addition to OBGH and SNI. Their gains won't be obvious or even seem likely at all based on prior results - just be the least implausible ones. The Green candidate here is one of their strongest, and the Greens finished with a very solid 23% last time. The party will likely win at least 1 of Saanich South, Esquimalt-Metchosin, V-BH and this district, but could potentially win any or all of them if the NDP are caught by surprise. This might be the toughest of the lot for the Greens, but I'm far from confident about an NDP win anymore.
16/04/2017 JoshMartini007
This riding is looking to be a lot closer than what others are saying. Assuming the polls are correct the Greens are statistically tied with the NDP on the island with the Greater Victoria area holding a more concentrated level of support. We saw that in 2013 where the Green candidate performed better than average to other Green candidates on the island and unlike the other Victoria riding this one did not have the then current leader. In a more neutral setting I would expect the Greens to take this, but Fleming is a very strong candidate and likely makes the NDP the favourite right now. I can see the Greens finishing in the high 30s to low 40s and in a three person race that would at least make Fleming sweat a bit.
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
One of safest NDP ridings in province. The race is for second place.
17 03 08 South Islander
No chance for the BC Liberals and not one of the priority ridings for the Greens on the South Island. Only if the Greens pull ahead of the NDP could this be in play.
17 01 14 Pundit79
Not a chance that Rob Fleming will lose this seat for the BCNDP.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
One of the safest seats in the province for the NDP this only went Red in 2001 when the NDP was so unpopular and only then it went for the Liberals by about 800 votes. Barring a complete meltdown Fleming holds this.

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