Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-04-29 10:09:34

Constituency Profile



Corke, Lorna

Heappey, James

Merryfield, Andy

Munt, Tessa

James Heappey

2016 EU Referendum (Remain vs. Leave)
46.37 % vs. 53.63 % (Est.)

2015 Election Result
Heappey, James
Munt, Tessa*
Hims, Helen
Inchley, Chris
Cousins, Jon
Arnold, Paul
83 .2%
Dobbs, Dave
81 .1%
Watkins, Gypsy
76 .1%
2010 Election Result (2010 Prediction)
Munt, T.J. Ms.
Heathcoat-Amory, D.*
Merryfield, A.
Baynes, J.
Boyce, H.
Briton, C.
2005 Election Result (transposed)


12/05/2017 The Guardian
Somerset: secret Lib Dem voters could give Theresa May a fight
As comfortable as Heappey?s majority seems, the Tories are not as confident as they might be. Their expectations of retaining the seat suffered a blow at last week?s local authority elections, when Munt took the seat of the Conservative county council leader John Osman in the city of Wells by 95 votes. If they weren?t taking the fight seriously before, the Tories are now.
Their campaign in Wells is bound to be complicated, for this constituency is a sprawling, diverse one. Its stretch of coastline includes sandy beaches, holiday parks and the resort of Burnham-on-Sea. Further east there is hugely varied countryside, including the Cheddar Gorge, the Mendip hills and part of the Somerset Levels.
Munt, too, is echoing Farron by making the case that May is bound to be PM, so her constituents should vote for a party that will form an effective opposition ('This is not North Korea,' is one of her lines) and for the person that will make the best local MP.
By and large, though, while the area voted to leave the EU, few people immediately bring up Brexit when asked what issues bother them. They talk about poor mobile phone signals, the patchiness of broadband, the lorries that trundle to the Hinkley Point nuclear power plant site from the quarries in Cheddar, the possibility of fracking in the Mendips, the closure of banks in Glastonbury, schools funding, GP waiting times, cuts to bus services, plans to extend a traffic-free path along the old Strawberry Line rail track route.
05/05/2017 JC
Former Liberal Democrat MP Tessa Munt got herself elected to local council, defeating Conservative council leader John Osman. This is while the Conservative Party took 35 out of 55 seats (gain of 6) to retain control of Somerset County Council with an increased majority. However the local result generally does not bold well for Lib Dem. Lib Dem retained only 12 of its 18 seats. Given UKIP's collapse, it is even more difficult for Munt to make up the 13-point gap. If they are going to regain any seat, it will likely be Yeovil, not this one.
27/04/2017 Jack Cox
13 percent Tory victory here last time. They'll hold it easily.

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United Kingdom General Election - 2017
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