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United Kingdom General Election - 2017

Bermondsey and Old Southwark


Prediction Changed
2017-04-27 20:45:29
 

Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Baillie, Siobhan
Clarke, James
Coyle, Neil
Hughes, Sir Simon
Jones, Elizabeth
Tyson, John

Incumbent:
 Neil Coyle

2016 EU Referendum (Remain vs. Leave)
73.95 % vs. 26.05 % (Est.)

2015 Election Result
Coyle, Neil
2214643.1%
Hughes, Simon*
1765734.3%
Floru, JP
605111.8%
Beadle, Andrew
32546.3%
Lavin, William
20233.9%
Abrams, Kingsley
142 .3%
Hall, Lucy
72 .1%
Cole, Donald
59 .1%
Freeman, Steve
20 .0%
2010 Election Result (2010 Prediction)
Hughes, S.H.W.*
2159048.4%
Shawcross, V. Ms.
1306029.2%
Morrison, L. Ms.
763817.1%
Tyler, S.J.
13703.1%
Chance, T.
7181.6%
Kirkby, A.D.
155 .3%
Freeman, S.
120 .3%
2005 Election Result (transposed)
11645
4689
17336
Other2742


  

07/06/2017 A
70.35.100.50
With Labour polling at 35-40% and the Lib Dems stuck in a rut, I see no reason why now incumbent Coyle would lose, given his 4.5k vote majority
 07/05/2017 Teddy Boragina
157.52.14.77
As I explained in my Twickenham projection, the maths involves are closer to multiplication than addition. The LibDems can be expected to, roughly, double their vote (in reality, this works out to maybe 1.5 times the pop-vote share they took last time) and that puts this seat clearly in the LD column.
 27/04/2017 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
9% Labour win here last time, with the Lib Dem vote bouncing back and Simon Hughes running again coupled with the Labour polling numbers crashing the Lib Dems pick this up.

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United Kingdom General Election - 2017
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