Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-19 22:56:00

Constituency Profile











   Hon Glenn Thibeault

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):80840

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13296 39.35%
4663 13.80%
14274 42.24%
1212 3.59%
OTHERS 348 1.03%
Total Transposed 33793

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed33793

Federal Election Result (2015):

Paul Lefebvre
Paul Loewenberg
Fred Slade
David Robinson
Jean-Raymond Audet
Elizabeth Rowley
J. David Popescu


5/28/2018 NJam101
A definite victory for Jamie West and probably by a large margin. Thibeault is finished as the Liberals may not even achieve official party status.
LISPOP is alway within 4 seats on their results...124 seats and their average is 120 correctly called... Sudbury has been declared NDP by LISPOP
18/05/2018 Dr. Bear
There seems to be a complete Liberal collapse in the north and a PC slide, all favoring the NDP. True that poll numbers for the north can be inaccurate due to small sample sizes, but I'm inclined to believe them in this case. In worse years the NDP have been able to win this seat, and that is why I am giving the nod to team orange. Never the less, the specter of a PC steal is possible provided that cuts to services aren't a thing. Everyone in the north knows that when Toronto talks cuts to services, it's going to be us who get it first.
15/05/2018 westham
Not sure how credible LISPOP is. They are saying Doug Ford's seat in Etobicoke North is 'too close to call'. Really?
LISPOP lists Sudbury has pick up for the NDP ....and it will not be close
13/05/2018 Joe
This has been a solid NDP seat for long and won't be about to change this time around.
06/05/2018 A.S.
Despite a recent pattern of abysmal also-ran results in Sudbury, count me in with the 'watch the PCs' crowd--and that's largely due to the same dynamics that have historically made Sudbury more NDP-phobic than the Nickel Belt which surrounds it: more of a service-town 'middle demo', etc. Though that might requite tempering Ford populism with a touch of 'Jim Gordon' moderation--but if the Libs still have their byelection stink on top of everything, and if the NDP still have to live down their Cimino chicken-out, wayward voters have to go *somewhere*. Certainly, a return to at least the Harris-era high 20s levels is more on-radar than many might guess...
GT is too closely linked to the Liberal regime which is going to be swept out and Jamie West is a very well chosen candidate and will take the riding
01/05/2018 Educated voter
I see the NDP having a good chance winning this riding because the Liberals ticked off the student vote at the college & university campuses, and the city poverty rates are higher then expected. I think most of the ridings in Northern Ontario are going to go NDP to be honest, because of the native vote, student vote, the workers who are unionized wont vote for the conservatives due to the job cuts.
28/04/2018 NJam101
This is a tough one at this point. I want to think that the the NDP candidate Jamie West seems set to win but Sudbury has benefited immensely with the Liberals in power. The amount of provincial dollars going to the city has made other Northern cities quite jealous. Glenn Thibeault still isn't a bad name to many Sudburians unlike elsewhere in the province. That's something that many Ontarians don't realize. So I say it's a toss-up here still between Thibeault and West.
24/03/2018 Innocent bystander
This seat would have gone NDP in 2014 under the 2018 map. Now, with the Liberal vote collapsing in the North to the point they're battling it out with the Greens for third place, Sudbury should be an easy NDP gain.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Thibeaut wins thanks to the NDP/PCs splitting the protest vote.
To add: I don't see the NDP winning this after the Cimino affair. They could have been supporting a Loewenberg incumbency and now they're running some guy from the labour council. Yawn.
11/03/2018 Craig
Too close to call. In fact, this is potentially a 3-way race. All three parties have strengths and weaknesses here.
Liberals: They have incumbency advantage (even if that was tainted) and have traditionally been strongest here. But their leader is very unpopular among working class voters and can they win a general election?
PC's: Without Doug Ford, they'd be irrelevant here. But he seems to be able to reach the same working class voters left behind in the economy like no one else can. There are many of them in this riding - upset potential? He drew a large crowd at a campaign rally in Sudbury.
NDP: There is still a lot of bad blood here from the by-election and perceived opportunism. They have history here, but they have a potential to be undercut by both the Liberals and PC's on the Doug Ford polarization. Unions will surely endorse them though, and they may be a 'safe' alternative.
In a nutshell, this is a seat that is impossible to call. So many conflicting factors - PC's have leader demographics but no history here, Liberals have incumbency but hated leader, NDP have history but poor fundamentals. Glenn Thibeault has to be nervous, but this has the potential to be a weird result...
03/03/2018 The Jackal
Given the numbers here I will call this one an NDP pick up.
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
The local poll has NDP ahead, just barely. I can tell you the Liberal party, out of the three, seems least likely to win. I can also tell you the PCs are damn close, and it could very easily tip in their favor. Nevertheless, I think the NDP are going to slip by on this one, simply because there is the least amount of stank currently associate with this party.
10/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
The NDP will pick this back up.
G.T. will take a lot of flak for hydro, overall fatigue, and sour grapes from past betrayals.
All the NPD need is a decent candidate and a solid ground game, It will be impressive to say the least if G.T. holds on.
27/12/2017 R.O.
the Oracle poll said this riding was a 3 way race and realistically its unlikely to be decided until late in the campaign, possibly even the final days .
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Oracle did a poll here showing a three way race so any of the three parties have a chance. If I had to pick one, I would choose NDP as they have traditionally done well here and with the taint of the scandal as well as unpopularity of Hydro One privatization which Glenn Thibeault oversaw he is probably more of a liability than asset. The PCs have a former NHL player running and despite their poor showing in 2014, it was not too different than in Sault Ste. Marie which they snatched in a by-election, still the left of centre tilt in this riding probably makes a PC win here unlikely and if they do they will probably win a landslide provincially.
05/12/2017 PJ from Oxford
The province-wide picture looks good for the NDP and they should narrowly regain an area which is often close between them and the Liberals.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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