Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-04-28 10:41:00

Constituency Profile








   Catherine Fife

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):103192

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13248 30.17%
11964 27.24%
16137 36.74%
2211 5.03%
OTHERS 357 0.81%
Total Transposed 43917

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed43917

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bardish Chagger
Peter Braid **
Diane Freeman
Richard Walsh
Emma Hawley-Yan


19/05/2018 Sebastien
Yes, I think its Catherine Fife because she's a wonderful, competent and helpful MPP for our riding. She does amazing work for Ontario every day. Orange is visible in our riding.
21/04/2018 PM
NDP win. Past Liberal voters who are bailing this time, will go to that way, with a few to the Greens and PC's. Liberals finish 3rd.
Without Mike Harris the Tories cannot win here...Fife is high profile in the riding and has the support of teachers.
With Harris out this makes Fife odds on favourite to win
Dan Weber, and not Mike Harris Jr., took the PC nomination for this riding. Without the Harris name, it certainly feels like Fife has a good chance here.
Keep in mind though that Postmedia reports that there was a record turnout for this nomination vote, so it's not quite clear if something else has changed in this riding in four years.
05/04/2018 OgtheDim
First, a quick reminder that the last Fife win was also in June - school being out doesn't matter here.
Weber winning plays into her hands as this election is going to get polarizing real quick & a non star candidate ain't going to cut it here.
Ridings that will go anti-Ford are going to choose the obvious candidate soon & in red Tory Blue Liberal Waterloo - that's Fife.
03/04/2018 Stephen B
I can't see the Tories taking this, even with a star candidate in the form of Mike Harris' son (who will be polarizing for some). The support the Liberals lose here will be more likely to go to Fife than Harris Junior. This isn't the kind of riding in which Ford will be popular- probably the least friendly riding in Waterloo Region for him.
Fife is fairly well-liked, and the habit here is not to kick out the incumbent: Witmer first won in 1990 after the Liberal incumbent retired (she had lost to him previously). She then held on for more than twenty years through varying Tory fortunes province-wide. In turn, Fife lost to Witmer once before winning the riding after Witmer herself retired.
01/04/2018 Dr. Bear
The 'Ford Juggernaut' is starting to look a lot like Patrick Brown's party (in terms of polling numbers). PC 39%, Lib 20%, NDP 32% in SW Ontario, according to the latest Forum poll. Contrast that to the poll numbers just before the 2014 election: PC 42%, Lib 27%, NDP 24%. With PC support flat and Liberal support swinging (apparently left), this will safely staying the orange column.
27/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
There is enough collapsing Liberal vote to give this to the Tories, especially if the Ford Juggernaut is as real as it looks. The suggestion that this is 'a Fife riding, not an NDP riding' is bogus. Also, as Alice Cooper said, 'School's out for summer'.
Looks as though the NDP have to edge out on this one. Unfortunately for the liberals, taking this riding back to the red column is going to be harder than ever. Catherine Fife is doing ok in terms of holding the door and getting constituents to stay NDP. I believe it's really between the PC's and NDP. The PC nomination is in April, and the star candidate is Mike Harris Jr. He expressed interest and is now a contender. If he gets the PC nomination, (likely will), then this riding will be a very close battle. The problem for them is just pure logistics. Their numbers here have not been to great but still not bad. People may still feel a bit rusty at the prospects of re-electing another PC MPP from the last time in 2007. Still, they could finally win this area with a surge in popularity. But at the time being, NDP looks to re-capture Waterloo.
20/03/2018 Stevo
I wonder, following the recent launch of Waterloo's local light-rail line, if the Liberals' stated commitment to high-speed rail between Toronto and K-W will help them here? Probably not, too far gone at this point, but the transit message did seem to help in Barrie and the GTA last time.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Fife has pray that there is no last minute anti-Ford strategic voting rush or else the NDP will be deprived of its next leader.
19/03/2018 A.S.
Cynical urban NDP progressives might claim they were thrown under the Horwathian bus all on behalf of stunting Fife into Queen's Park and keeping her there--and hey, who can't blame them for being cynical; the sleight-of-hand that made it all possible now seems a relic of the pending-Mulcair-majority era. Not that it doesn't still have legs, though it'll now require even more sleight-of-hand with the Kitchener polls distributed away. But an interesting twist now is talk of Mike Harris Jr. (not to be confused with neighbouring MPP Michael Harris) as the PC candidate for Waterloo. Maybe not what anyone had in mind re the seat returning to its Witmerian allegiances; but, worth noting.
16/03/2018 MF
Waterloo is a Catherine Fife riding not an NDP riding. It's also the least working class of the K-W ridings and hence less likely to succumb to Ford's populist appeal. The progressive vote should coalesce around the NDP. Catherine Fife is also very much likely to run to succeed Andrea Horwath as the leader of the NDP.
16/03/2018 Craig
Almost by default, Catherine Fife should be safe here. The student vote will be strongly on her side, while the white collar vote will likely default to her as the best anti-Ford option unless the Liberals surge, even though they aren't traditionally an NDP demographic.
Had Elliott or Mulroney won the PC leadership, they'd be in good position here, but a highly educated riding with a lot of technology employees and students is NOT going to go to Doug Ford. Hence you can cross the PC's off right away. As for the Liberals, they are polling in the dumps right now, and aren't in a position to pick up many (if any) seats. If this seat was open, I could see a rare Liberal pickup, but Fife is too strong.
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
This should be an easy hold for Catherine Fife now. I'll be honest, unless turnout gets real low, the PCs can expect exactly zero pick-up from the NDP in just about any district, barring something specific to certain ridings.
Here, this was going to be an uphill battle BEFORE Brown's campaign fell apart. Locally, Catherine Fife is very popular, even among those that might not vote typically NDP. With little confidence in the PCs, a lot of people sick of the Liberal government are going to see and easy protest in returning Fife to office. This riding will stay with her.
01/02/2018 Dr.Bear
I don't see why the NDP would lose this seat. While the numbers suggest a possible three-way race, my thoughts are:
1) With Liberals being in the dumps in SW Ontario (have been for some time; since before last election), newly-dissatisfied Liberal voters are more likely voting NDP.
2) Incumbent advantage for the NDP.
3) PC are not a viable alternative at the moment. Poll numbers don't seem to suggest the PC overcoming the vote gap (funnily though, pre-Brown and post-Brown polls seem consistent for the PC).
4) University town with a sizable Millenial population, who tend to vote more progressively. If the PC party select someone from the grumpy old-man branch of the party, we'll see them coming out in droves to support the NDP.
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, the PC would have a shot in winning this. With the PC in implosion mode, all anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP, which make this an easier seat to defend.
03/01/2018 seasaw
This is a riding that doesn't usually kick the incumbent out. They did do it in the last federal election, but that was a rarity and isn't likely to happen twice in a row. The previous poster keeps referring to the last federal election, which means nothing provincially. If you look at the history of the riding, in the '60's right through to '90's, the riding first had an NDP and after his retirement, a Tory MP, but a Liberal MPP, after the MPP's retirement, Elizabeth Witmer was their MPP, and they had a Liberal MP
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Any of the three parties have a realistic chance here. It went heavily Liberal federally and the Liberals only lost by four points in the 2011 federal election disaster so they are strong here and could pick it up even if they lose provincially. While not an NDP riding, this is one where local candidates can win even if not favoured as Elizabeth Witmer held this despite the demographics pointing to this as a swing or lean Liberal and even though the PCs lost. Also with a strong core of 30% the PCs only need a slight uptick and strong splits to pull this off.

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