Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Wellington-Halton Hills

Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:03:00

Constituency Profile








    Wellington-Halton Hills
   Ted Arnott

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):115880

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14120 29.32%
22450 46.61%
6804 14.13%
3550 7.37%
OTHERS 1241 2.58%
Total Transposed 48165

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Wellington-Halton Hills

Total Transposed48165

Federal Election Result (2015):

Michael Chong **
Don Trant
Anne Gajerski-Cauley
Brent Allan Bouteiller
Harvey Edward Anstey


25/05/2018 ML
Very safe PC seat, with an increasing NDP vote nipping into the Liberals' reasonably sized voter base in the last election.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
Despite the rise of the NDP as the main challenger to the DoFo & Co party, and the orange wave that's starting to churn in the SW, I do not think Wellington-Halton Hills will be changing hands. Ted Arnott has enough personal appeal to win this on his own.
06/05/2018 A.S.
Re the leadership race: DoFo presumably had a way of capturing the Escarpment/Greenbelt/Moraine McMansion vote (as in Dufferin-Caledon next door, or northern York Region)--also, while the W-HH rep is Red Tory, the ReformAlliance (or beyond that, CHP/FCP) undercurrent is reasonably strong too (hey, it *is* mainly rural Ontario), it's just that they all happened to be married by convenience. One thing I'd wonder about in this presumed snoozer of a race is, in case Mike Schreiner ups his profile through debate appearances et al, how well GPO might do--the riding's wedged between the party's Guelph and DuffCal strongholds, after all...
Doug Ford will blow it or else he will be kept quiet by his party executive
19/03/2018 jeff316
Poor Ted Arnott is gonna be so so awk as a backbencher in a Ford government that you almost have to feel sorry for the guy. But he knows who breads his butter and will be a good boy and so you don't feel too sorry for him in the end.
12/03/2018 MF
Funny that Ford actually won this riding in the PC leadership that has a reputation for being a bastion of Red Toryism. Either way, it should stay PC. There's probably enough 'but Kathleen Wynne' sentiment even among more moderate Tory voters.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Despite its proximity to Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, and the outskirts of the GTA this is a largely rural and deep blue riding. As an added bonus both their MPP Ted Arnott and federal MP Michael Chong are extremely popular and both are Red Tories too. This is one of five ridings federally where the Tories got over 50% in Ontario in the last federal election although to be fair some were probably personal Michael Chong votes as opposed to Tory ones but still even without these it almost certainly would have gone Tory albeit by a smaller margin.
05/12/2017 Christopher L
No matter what kind of campaign Patrick Brown runs, this is a safe Tory seat. It's a naturally Conservative area and Arnott is a popular local MP. The only question is whether he gets back over 50% of the vote (he dropped to 47% last time, but that was in the context of an awful Tory campaign).

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