Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

York Centre

Prediction Changed
2018-03-11 20:57:00

Constituency Profile










    York Centre
   Monte Kwinter

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):100277

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14556 48.12%
9333 30.85%
4953 16.37%
984 3.25%
OTHERS 425 1.40%
Total Transposed 30250

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    York Centre

Total Transposed30250

Federal Election Result (2015):

Michael Levitt
Mark Adler **
Hal Berman
Constantine Kritsonis


29/05/2018 Pedro
Did a very unscientific bike ride with my kids to count signs...wanted to see how many in a 100 for each party
PC - 92!
Lib - 8
NDP - 0
Only one neighbourhood in riding but I think this is going PC
5/28/2018 Brett
If the NDP had any chance to win this riding. They don't anymore after the Hitler post.
23/05/2018 DarkFlare
LISPOP lists this riding as to close to call with no party having a lead above 5%.
Due to similar neighbouring ridings of Humber River-Black Creek and York South-Weston showing leads for the NDP along with the serious increases in the NDP overall I think they have a really good shot at taking this riding and shouldn't be counted out just yet. Also Andrea Vasquez Jimenez has proven to be a very charismatic candidate.
17/05/2018 DarkFlare
My new home riding for this election couldn't be more complex and honestly I think needs to be switched to 'to close to call'
Liberals: This has been a long stronghold for the Liberals but Wynne's unpopularity and the fact that the incumbent isn't seeking re-election makes this one iffy.
PC: Have a great shot and probably would be my pick to take it but they picked Doug Ford. Ford doesn't trend well with the high Jewish population. In the mayoral election the riding went strongly to John Tory. So no 'ford nation' points to be won here.
NDP: Wildcard. I'm honestly not counting out the NDP right now due to a big rise in the polls well ahead of the election. Wynne and Ford are both very hated so even a very established battleground like this. Also from what i've seen Andrea V
07/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The budget bounce for the Liberals lasted less than a week, and they've fallen back below where they were.
The Toronto breakdown polling is getting a little stale, but the Tories led the Liberals by better than 2:1 in North York ... when you consider that North York included most of the Liberal strongholds of DV East and West, the north of 401 ridings should all go PC.
16/03/2018 MF
Not sure why this is marked PC pickup but Scarborough-Agincourt is TCTC? I would say the latter is a higher on the list of Toronto pickups for Doug Ford's PCs.
Ford underperforms with Jewish voters also (though admittedly not as badly with Russian Jews), though it's possible he makes up for it by doing better with Italian and Filipino voters than a generic PC leader would.
15/03/2018 North York Election Guru
It astounds me how this riding is predicted to go PC. I have direct inside knowledge of the workings of the one of the Liberal Nomination Candidates and her chances will blow any conservative out of the Water.
With the Liberal nomination to replace Monte Kwinter probably being scheduled in the upcoming weeks, if Louise Russo wins, she will easily carry the riding in the general election.
Louise Russo carries extremely strong positive and sympathy name recognition in the riding. 14 years ago she was shot and paralyzed by accident at a sandwich shop with her daugther by some italian gang. The story blew up (a lot of news coverage) and since then, she has been a tireless advocate for preventing game violence. For her advocacy, she has recieved awards from the Governor General, the Queen and even has a city park named after her.
Louise will strongly carry the Italian vote in the southwest of York Centre and will do very well in the other areas of the riding as well.
With the election of Doug Ford as PC Leader, the information the Russo campaign is getting is that the Jewish population finds Ford very distasteful and their chances of going strongly for PC are diminishing by the day. Without the Jewish vote, the PCs are done in this riding.
Provincial and Federal are two different animals. Monte has had a strong base and with a star candidate for the Liberals like Louise Russo, there is no way this riding turns PC. Liberal it will stay.
18/03/2018 A.S.
What nobody's raised is that there are two 'halves' to York Centre--the more 'familiar' Jewish-dominated eastern half (Ward 10); but also Ward 9 (Downsview), which is more of a traditionally 'Italianate Liberal' piece with York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek. And as such, naturally, far more Ford National. Though if the Liberals still seek hope in small places, this is worth noting from a vote-split POV: former Tory candidate (and Ford Nation Council endorsee) Igor Toutchinski is running for the Trillium Party.
01/02/2018 Dr.Bear
I withdraw my earlier PC prediction. While this is, and should be, a continued PC target, the loss of Patrick Brown, and the GTA-centric campaign he was running, make this riding less certain. Let's see who the PC pick to run....
09/01/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
I believe this is one of the Toronto ridings that the Liberals will almost surely lose. I know the riding well, have worked in it in a political capacity, and have canvassed around it. Here are my reasons:
1. In the last federal election, the riding was the closest in the city. The Liberal candidate, on a massive 13.6% swing, won it by less than 1,300 votes. There is a robust PC/Fed. Tory voting base here.
2. The longtime, well-known, and widely liked Liberal MPP, Monte Kwinter, who never lost an election and who has held the seat in its many incarnations since 1985, is not running again due to severe illness. The Libs will need a very strong candidate to have any shot at all. No one has been nominated yet, with 6 months to go.
3. The PC candidate is a young, energetic and ambitious lawyer who has been involved locally for many years, is generous, and capable of holding down a decent group of volunteers. Roman knows the riding inside out, is curious and open-minded, and is close to Patrick Brown. Roman will work very hard to win this riding and is fully aware of the strategic advantages he has and that overall momentum is on his side. He will be ferocious in his determination to win.
4. Minorities here are open and generally receptive to the PC brand. Mark Adler, the previous Tory M.P. was particularly liked by the Filipino community. There are many Russians that Roman Barber will aggressively pursue in the northern periphery of the riding and Roman speaks Russian. The riding's massive Jewish community will also be crucial and Roman is of the Jewish faith as are Kwinter, Adler, and Levitt.
5. A puerile local NDP machine and destitute voting base means that the change market will be that much wider open to the PCs.
6. Again, no Liberal candidate. This is a bad sign. The election is less than 6 months away and without a very robust candidate, strategy, team, and constant volunteer base pounding the pavement, the Liberals will have a very, very slim chance of holding the seat.
7. Apathy among the youth. This riding flipped red because Michael Levitt (Fed. Lib) seized thousands of younger, Millennial voters who never voted before and who were likely fond of Trudeau and core Lib campaign promises of pot legalization/electoral reform/EI support. It is highly improbable that such a wave of youth support will back a provincial Lib. candidate for a wide variety of reasons.
Having written out my reasons, I am now essentially 100% certain that the Liberal party will lose this seat unless they find an incredible candidate, and fight to the death while simultaneously maintaining a solid province-wide showing overall.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Open Toronto seats are usually a hot commodity for Liberal nomination candidates. Haven't heard anything yet about a candidate. current polling gives to PCs.
19/12/2017 seasaw
Longtime MPP and I believe the oldest person serving in the legislature, Monte Kwinter is retiring. Unlike what previous posters believe, this riding isn't that ripe for the Tories. It's true that federal this riding was very close, but this is provincial and the two are totally different animals. The Tories strong showing here and in Eglinton-Lawrence was due to PM Harper's foreign policy which favoured Isreal. The two ridings have a significant Jewish population. That's not an issue this time and one must keep in mind that the Liberals have won every provincial election here often with greater than 50% support. Nothing will change this time.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Monte Kwinter was popular enough he would have held this had he offered up again, but with him stepping down, this makes this riding open to a PC pickup. Lets remember the federal Tories only lost this by a couple of points and it was one of two 416 ridings (Eglinton-Lawrence is the other) where they got above 40% of the popular vote so if the PCs get all federal Tories and pick up a few swing votes, they will be nearing the 50% mark. So Liberals still could hold this, but if they lose any 416 seats to the PCs, this will be one of the first to fall.
12/12/2017 Dr.Bear
With an incumbent not running and numbers as they stand, I say this will be a PC pick up. I will reassess this riding in a few months, but for now I say a win for team blue.
11/12/2017 Ruth
Longtime Liberal MPP is retiring at a time when this riding has gone steadily bluer and the PC's have a strong candidate. I see a PC landslide.
Kwinter not running again combined with mega unpopular Liberals, I see this as an easy PC pick up.

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