Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-27 01:16:00

Constituency Profile








    Kenora-Rainy River
   Sarah Campbell

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):32987

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

995 18.74%
639 12.03%
3479 65.50%
198 3.74%
Total Transposed 5312

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Kenora-Rainy River

Total Transposed5312

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bob Nault
Howard Hampton
Greg Rickford **
Ember C. McKillop
Kelvin Boucher-Chicago


5/28/2018 NJam101
No doubt that it will be a huge NDP victory here.
26/05/2018 Shakhtar Donetsk
Why is a riding that the NDP won by almost 40 points last election TCTC when they are polling far better this time around? Bizarre
With NDP support in Northern Ontario now at 41% (according to IPSOS), this riding will definitely go NDP on June 7th!
26/05/2018 Sam
Should be an NDP hold if they are gaining anything near what they should. It doesn't appear that either of the other parties have gained traction here.
25/05/2018 MK15
I like to click through the province and check out the TCTC ridings, and reading up on this one, I really don't know why it's in this column. This riding is solidly NDP in the past, NDP poll numbers are surging, particularly in Northern (and Southwest) Ontario.
It would be very surprising if this didn't go NDP.
5/22/2018 The Lobster
It's with some considerable reluctance that I need to revise my earlier prediction. While I continue to believe that this *could* be a major shocker, buck the provincial trend, and vote Liberal for all the reasons I said below, there comes a point where province-wide trends begin to affect even the most unique of ridings (such as this one). It's pragmatically hard to see the NDP losing any of the seats they currently hold.
07/05/2018 Political Outsider
'Sioux Lookout, most agree, is in urgent need of 200 long-term care beds but has just 20. Additionally, (Liberal candidate Doug) Lawrance says, services such as a detox centre and treatment facilities for substance abuse are essentially non-existent. There
The FN vote will put the NDP over the top....the PC vote will not increase enough to contest the riding ...
15/04/2018 A.S.
The superficial certainty here is that even in the event of a DoFo wave this is the least likely seat in Northern Ontario to go PC--though a candidate like Bull is a sporting enough way to push against that certainty. In the end, when it comes to FN compatibility with right-of-centre politics, the sad fact is that this is Ontario, not Oklahoma.
07/04/2018 The Lobster
I'll go out on a limb and say this will be the one riding in the province where the Liberals pick up this time. A few reasons:
1) As others have observed, the amount of votes (in terms of numbers -- not percentage) that have to be swung to win this riding are fairly small;
2) This riding is 68% Indigenous, almost all of First Nations. First Nations voters tend to be loyal to persons more than parties and there is no incumbent running to whom to be loyal;
3) Doug Lawrance, Mayor of Sioux Lookout, is running for the Liberal nomination. He should get it. Sioux Lookout has become a hub for servicing the First Nations, and has been at the forefront of settler-Indigenous relations (contra Red Lake);
4) Clifford Bull, a former Chief, is actually a formidable candidate for the PCs, but this just isn't PC territory;
5) No NDP candidate yet is concerning; and
6) This confluence of factors reminds me of Gary Meratsy unseating Jeremy Harrison in Northern Saskatchewan in 2006.
I concede this is not a slam dunk. Liberals are kind of hated outside Toronto (and the old city at that) and will have a hard enough time keeping their two seats in Thunder Bay. But there are enough factors working together that make me think this will be like Renfrew--Nipissing-Pembroke in 2003. (A cynic would say that they set up the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission to win this riding but that's a topic for another day...) This could change depending on who the NDP candidate is.
05/04/2018 C. H.
This area has been safe NDP territory for a long time and there is little reason for that to change in 2018.
25/03/2018 Innocent bystander
Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk-James Bay may well depend more on the local candidate than any other riding in the province. Low populations, large areas, low turnouts and no incumbents mean that any one could win, given the right candidate.
The NDP start off with an edge, but there's no telling until nominations close.
24/03/2018 NJam101
This electoral district voted so heavily NDP in the last number of election that I just can't see that changing. It has a majority Indigenous population. Only the PC candidate has been nominated so far and he won't do well. A Liberal candidate could do well but I can't see many voting Liberal this year.
The riding is the hardest one to travel around in with so many fly-in only First Nations. Many of the provincial issues concern social services and travel which gives the NDP an advantage.
19/03/2018 jeff316
NDP support here is wafer-thin. Liberals should be able to count on the FN vote to get this one past the line, particularly if the southern communities split PC-NDP.
15/03/2018 Teddy Boragina
NDP as a default. I'd say about 10% of the electorate of this riding will turn out just to vote NDP. If a popular local candidate runs, that will, of course, upset this balance, and they could win regardless of the party.
However; at this time there is no evidence of that; so, default to NDP.
13/03/2018 Demarcoa
This riding is new and that does open up a sense on unpredictability, but it's not like these voters emerged out of nowhere. I predict, based on the transposed results and the history of this area, this riding will go NDP.
28/01/2018 Craig
New riding, low population and difficult to campaign in. This should be a very interesting race, that could result in strange results. It will only take a few thousand votes to win, and First Nations make up most of the riding.
I'd say the NDP is the frontrunner, but if the bands decide to coalesce around the Liberal candidate, the PC candidate or someone else altogether, then he or she cannot be counted out. For that matter, if they find a strong candidate and a message that resonates, the Greens could pull it off, or an independent/small party could find room for a breakthrough. What happens province-wide will mean very little here, as far removed from the Toronto establishment as you can get.
03/01/2018 Dr. Bear
With a riding that is new, has a low population, and has an abysmal turn out rate, I have to agree with R.O. that this race could be a toss up. My instincts say that this will ultimately go to the NDP, but if the other two parties get off their duff, find good candidates and put the effort, they could win this. Being small, it takes fewer converts to shift this from one party to another.
22/12/2017 R.O.
This riding remains highly unpredictable for a number of reasons, first off its never existed before under these boundaries and population smaller than a normal riding. secondly its mostly made up of small isolated first nations communities, types of places where they come out in large numbers for band council elections but sometimes provincial elections get overlooked. as the first nations are more used to voting for the person than party as in the case during band council elections . I could see the potential for an independent candidate here although its likely to go with one of the major parties this year.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
As a large First Nation's riding this should be an easy NDP win. Liberals are strong in the urban areas of Northern Ontario, quite weak outside and the PCs only do well in the very southern portions of Northern Ontario so this too far north for them to have any chance.

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