|It will be a close race since the Liberal candidate is well known. However Vincent Ke, the PC candidate, secured his nomination in this riding over a year ago. My guess is he's had a lot of time to mobilize his team which by most accounts should point to a PC victory.|
|Carroll is a solid candidate with a lot of experuience in elected public office capacity. |
|Campaign Research poll of Toronto has PCs up 18 on Liberals in Don Valley North, with NDP trailing.|
|Shelley Carroll is a good candidate for the Liberals, but I just can't see how they'll win this seat with their current polling levels.|
|Finally a fresh Toronto poll. North York, compared to 2014: |
|The budget bounce for the Liberals lasted less than a week, and they've fallen back below where they were. |
The Toronto breakdown polling is getting a little stale, but the Tories led the Liberals by better than 2:1 in North York ... when you consider that North York included most of the Liberal strongholds of DV East and West, the north of 401 ridings should all go PC.
|Shelly Carol is interesting because she actually supports more of the mayor's agenda then people realise - see her work on the local police board. If you look at how she votes on council, she is very much about procedure. She's more blue Liberal then people who only read the tabloids think.|
She has a lot of name recognition in the riding & beyond, with her being a local radio staple on talk radio for years. Most importantly, she has a formidable ground game in place from running for councillor for so many years. Having had to beat Rob Davis in a tough race, she kept that same team going for the last 15 years.
The Tories hope here is a complete meltdown of the Libs - the local PC candidate isn't that well known. I would say, though, that they have a much more diverse volunteer base here then in much of the city. This will help but their ground game is going to get pummelled by Carrol who has been pounding the pavement locally for 18 months now.
The NDP? If the candidate gets known, good for them - they usually parachute. Their only hope is a Jack Layton in Quebec like result.
||Not Non-Partisan |
|Shelley is the most 'New Democrat' Liberal in existence. She always votes with the N-Dippers at City Hall. I don't know how she can call herself a Liberal. This round is the 'populist' round and that's not really her. But maybe. Somebody's got to pick up the pieces, Humpty-Dumpty style. She'd be a good rebuilder.|
|Hmm. No incumbent and the PCs are actually tied with OLP in Toronto according to this poll - https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2018/03/15/Doug-Fords-PC-Party-Set-to-Win-Big-in-June|
I think it is a safe assumption this will tilt towards the PCs, barring a major change in polling.
|In effect, provincially speaking, DVN is the resurrected Oriole--the former Caplan family Liberal stronghold--but with ethno-demographic voting trends and all, north of the 401 seems to me tilting into being more conservative than the south. (And what was once Oriole's Tory stronghold, Shaughnessy Heights, is now relatively moderate against the big picture.). Carroll's an excellent candidate, of course; but against what's happening, one wonders if she's meeting the fate of her ward precursor Paul Sutherland (who bombed for the Tories in DVE in 2003). Maybe not *that* bad, but...|
|Don Valley North has exceptionally high proportion of Chinese voters/residents. While the Chinese community has supported Liberals since the elder Trudeau days, that loyalty has been gradually eroding over the past decade. The community's social and fiscal conservative values are generally more aligned with right-wing candidates. |
During the PC Leadership, Mainstreet used Chinese speakers to poll Chinese speaking members, and Ford scored 52.4% (compare to 21.67% among English speakers, and 5.26% among South Asians). He clearly has a strong following in the Chinese community.
In the 2015 elections, the most Chinese ridings in GTA and in Greater Vancouver both elected Conservative MPs, while the rest of the regions went overwhelmingly Liberal.
Toss-up at best, likely PC leaning at this point. Shelley Carroll decades of work in the Chinese community may not be enough to save her.
|If one of the Don Valley ridings goes PC, this is the one that will flip. For now, I'm going to say TCTC until we see the full platforms and see if Patrick Brown can appeal to Toronto voters in ways his predecessors couldn't.|
|I think the recent federal Scarborough Agincourt by election and 2016's by election in Scarborough Rouge River showcase the inroads right wing parties have made with GTA orientals. In the 2015 federal election the CPC still got close to 40% despite running a disaster of a candidate. I would so far as to argue that if the PCs win one seat in Toronto, it will be this one.|
|As an affluent 416 suburb a lot will depend on whether the PCs breakthrough into the 416 or the Liberals continue to dominate it. Earlier polls suggested this would go PC, but now they suggest the Liberals might hold this. At this point too early to tell as a lot can happen between now and election day so anything from a narrow PC win to a comfortable Liberal win is possible.|