Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-29 09:39:00

Constituency Profile











   Hon Liz Sandals

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):121688

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

22014 41.52%
11048 20.84%
9385 17.70%
10230 19.29%
OTHERS 348 0.66%
Total Transposed 53025

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed53025

Federal Election Result (2015):

Lloyd Longfield
Gloria Kovach
Andrew Seagram
Gord Miller
Alexander Fekri
Kornelis Klevering
Tristan Dineen


06/06/2018 seanmitc
Conservatives running a very poor ground game. As a Liberal canvasser, what I am hearing is not that people really hate Wynne, and that people respect her concession of the election. But due to prevailing trends, people will strategically vote Green (hard to believe I'm typing that). I doubt that the Liberals will fail to get 14% of the vote, but don't expect anything more than that. Any poll showing the NDP at >25% is distorted due to polling methods and their inability to take into consideration all the nuances of Guelph.
Try as Horwath and Mlynarz might, Guelph is not about to swing NDP. they came in fourth last election, and they don't have the base to do the ground work that the Liberals and the Greens do. Admittedly, Mlynarz suffers from a bit of agism, but overall the sentiment is that she is not the strongest candidate and wouldn't be the best representative for Guelph, regardless of party affiliation.
Most strategic voters recognize that a vote for the Greens this time around won't be a wasted ballot, and even if it is, it won't result in Ferraro getting in.
06/06/2018 Marco Ricci
There's a conflict over Guelph developing between Mike Schreiner and Andrea Horwath.
Horwath stopped by Guelph earlier this week and told people they should vote NDP. Horwarth and the NDP candidate basically said the Greens were a wasted vote.
Mike Schreiner objected to this and released a statement to the media saying that the Greens are ahead in independent polling and that Horwath and the NDP candidate are misrepresenting the race in Guelph.
It will be interesting to see whether the Green and NDP vote gets divided and ends up helping the Conservatives here.
05/06/2018 PM
As I posted earlier this election, if the Liberals & PC's were to shoot themselves in the foot, Mike would win this riding. Well, Wynne admits defeat & Ford is being sued by his sister in-law. Bang Bang. This will be a Green pick up come June 7th.
04/06/2018 AR
The stars have aligned with the Greens this time around. In the last election, Mike Schreiner was an outsider but he's been in campaign mode ever since. This combined with the fact that the liberals are deeply unpopular and do not have an incumbency edge; the PC's have an appointed candidate rather than someone chosen by the grassroots; and the NDP's politically inexperienced candidate gives the Greens the edge here.
03/06/2018 Paul
Call me sceptical as well... The Greens poured all they could in this riding four years ago and did not crack 20 percent. Now with the NDP running high I do not think that there will be a switch from NDP to the Greens especially for a possibility to run Ontario. Can the greens win with 25 percent? 30? 4 years ago the Liberals were a lock for this riding and some NDPs voted green as a protest vote. They will come home. It will be close...
03/06/2018 Aaron
As an outsider (I live in Germany) I've been interested in and following the '18 election very closely.
So far in Guelph, it has been a three-way race for the most part since the Liberals' almost complete implosion even before the start of the campaign. The Greens and the NDP have been trading places within the margin of error, while the Progressive Conservatives have mostly been a half step behind.
Considering that the Green Party has poured large amounts of its campaign money into this riding, and considering the recent stagnation of both the NDP and PCs in the province-wide polls, it looks like the seat will either go to the NDP or the Greens, but since the New Democrats have been stalling as of late I would cautiously predict the Greens to win the riding in 2018.
02/06/2018 Marco Ricci
I'm not 100% convinced that the Greens are going to win Guelph. I've been a poster on this site for many years and there have been many elections in the past in which people have predicted that the Greens would win here and yet it hasn't happened.
It started a decade ago with the 2008 federal by-election (later cancelled by Harper). Since that time, there have been predictions of a Green win at both the federal & provincial level, with the Greens always falling short.
It's possible that this year will be different. The Liberals are polling at a lower level than usual, and incumbent Sandals has retired. The Federal Greens did eventually elect Elizabeth May in British Columbia, and several provincial Greens have been elected in the Maritimes. So the Greens are showing some progress at electing people in Canada.
But the Greens have never won a seat in Ontario. That doesn't mean it won't ever happen in Ontario. Mike Schreiner did run here in 2014. But it's possible that the Greens have a ceiling of support that they are not able to get beyond. So far it has been hard for the Greens to get much beyond 20% of the vote at both the provincial and federal level.
The difference this year is that the Greens are ahead in a couple of the local polls that have been conducted, plus Schreiner has received The Toronto Star endorsement. So this could finally be the year that the Greens do it.
The question is whether enough voters will actually carry through with voting for the Greens and coalesce behind the Greens here for the first time. It will be one of those times where we have to tune in on Election Night to see whether it will actually happen!
31/05/2018 PM
Still a week to go but the Greens in Guelph keep slowly trending upward. The NDP are running strong here but may have peaked (both in Guelph & Ontario). The Liberal vote in Guelph has completely disappeared except for their hard core base who will vote Liberal no matter what. PC's are in the mix still and depending on their platform (whenever that comes out) and how Doug handles himself moving forward, might make this interesting come June 7th. Guelph is leaning Green for now............
31/05/2018 QuebecCityOliver
LW - It isn't a conspiracy - it is incompetence.
Hanlon's razor is an aphorism expressed in various ways, including:
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Always assume incompetence, ignorance or stupidity before deliberate intention. It will make things make more sense particularly when considering government actions.
I think, to be honest, that Aggie and the NDP will win this one. Momentum matters more because most voters are willfully ignorant of data, facts and policy.
29/05/2018 LW
I have never believed in conspiracy theories until this election.
How could the three major parties have nominated such incredibly
weak candidates unless there was a tacit agreement that the Greens deserved a seat.
29/05/2018 QuebecCityOliver
To claim that this is going green based on one poll with a lead of 3.7% (well within the margin of error - which is actually 7.5%, 19 times out of 20) is ludicrous.
It is also too early to make accurate predictions about a vote that will take place a week tomorrow - though, I suppose, some votes have already been cast - in a riding this close. Some predictions could have been made a year ago, this is one to watch but I doubt the Green Party will win it.
29/05/2018 MF
Mike Schreiner will make history in Guelph as the first Green MPP in Ontario. He's pulling enough from both former Liberal voters (the Liberal vote has totally collapsed) and from the types of people who would be voting NDP elsewhere, plus he already has a 20% base from last time. Meanwhile the PCs are too far behind and Ford isn't a good fit for a crunchy university town like Guelph.
5/28/2018 MIC
I am going to change my earlier projection. I had originally said NDP, but I have been focusing more and more on the local campaigns.
The NDP campaign in Guelph is asleep. Poorly organized, poorly implemented. I think this will be a brutal embarrassment with the NDP losing Guelph even if they form government.
I am not a Green supporter, but I think Guelph might go Green this time.
5/28/2018 Gabriel
I think this is a 2 way race between the NDP & Green. Libs are toast here based on the most recent poll at only 11% & the candidate is not well known to most, although she has a respectable position in the community. The Greens are going all out here to elect their first MPP & their leader. He has been doing great work in the riding & not neglecting it as it seems the Greens are targeting it as a winnable riding. I live here & haven't seen so much signage for Green before. I'm a card carrying PC, but the candidate & leader are ineffective. I voted Green this time & I think this riding will surprise, but will be a close race with the NDP while the PC & Libs fight it out for third.
5/28/2018 OrangeTory
As reported by AM570 in Guelph on May 25:
Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research, is calling a win for Guelph
26/05/2018 Persecki
I've been living in Guelph for the last 11 years. It's a Liberal city by default. However, in this election, Liberal Party has no chance. People want change. Right now, I think NDP is ahead of other parties. If the Green Party gets around 25%, then PC may have a chance as well.
My prediction is that NDP candidate will be elected thanks to the rise of NDP in the province.
25/05/2018 Joe P
Mainstreet Research new riding poll has Schreiner winning this by 3.7% with the NDP candidate as the runner-up. Liberal support is
25/05/2018 agp1989
This might be the closest election in the 2018 contest. I think it is going to be a narrow, narrow Green win; however it is equally possible with the vote split, that any party takes this riding, minus the Liberals. It will come down to the ground game on election day, and all Green resources are focused here, versus that of the PCs and NDP.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
Oddly I would suggest that the PCs do have a chance at winning Guelph. Only because of a three way split on the left. However without a liberal incumbent and with the current collapse in OLP support, I suspect many of that 41% will swing Green or NDP. If the NDP look poised to form government, I expect bandwagon effect to tilt this orange. If the outcome is looking to be a PC win, probably a stronger Green showing. Still, TCTC is the best bet for the time being.
23/05/2018 Joe
The ruling government won here with barely over 30% in 2014 and are very weak now...NDP is going up but probably still can't catch the PC base here, add that to the three-way left wing vote split and there's far more than enough room for the PC candidate to cut through.
22/05/2018 Marc Cohen
I think this riding could have been an NDP pick-up if a previous strong nominee such as James Gordon were to have been nominated long before the election. Additionally, I think the PC's could have been more of a threat if they nominated their candidate much earlier. It also seems that Ray was not terribly well regarded after his stint on city council, where he was unable to retain his seat twice. I'm not convinced that province-wide trends can be easily translated to the local context.
The Greens have been pumping a lot of time and energy in to the riding and the leader has been very active around the community for some time. I think this is a likely Green marginal pick-up with each of the four parties in the 20-30% range.
21/05/2018 prognosticator15
I watch with sad amusement how Green activists try to win this riding every election to create an Ontario stronghold for ecofascist ideology, although I suggest this year British Columbia pipeline experience will make even like-minded Liberals pause before switching votes and will help OLP keep most in their camp - there is some brand differentiation now, for good or not. The NDP is not strong enough to win this riding, and generally in University-dominated areas with large University-based public employment Liberal support tends to be more stable - and is often linked to pecuniary interests. I still expect Liberals to lose soft votes in all directions, including some to PCs but to perform above provincial average - anywhere in 25-37% range would not be surprising. The question remains how much they keep and where the Greens hit the ceiling. This will decide the election as PCs will also hit the ceiling below their provincial average, at perhaps, around a third of the vote due to riding demographics. Too close to call until the end, but it is mostly a two-way PC-Liberal race with Greens having a small chance and NDP likely to come third or fourth, no matter what provincial polls say - and riding polls are often small and unreliable. NDP may still take a chunk of Liberal vote, but I expect it to be small, and the change compared to last time may be less drastic than expected.
18/05/2018 The Jackal
This is definitely a riding to watch as all four major parties are in play here. The feeling here is that a three way centre left/left wing vote split will allow the PC candidate to win here.
18/05/2018 Brian J
Some call Guelph a bellwether riding, and I would tend to agree. Ford needs Guelph to go PC in order to win, and Horwath needs Guelph to go NDP in order for the NDP to form government. Right now, due to its position in S/SW Ontario, I'd give the prediction that the NDP will win here. The only certainty though is that the Liberals won't win here.
17/05/2018 Observant
Guelph is either going PC or NDP.
The Liberal vote is collapsing. In the last 2 weeks of the campaign you will see a big chunk of strategic voters switch NDP.
The question is who takes it. I'd bet there will be less than 5% between 1st and 2nd, but for sure it will be PC or NDP. The Greens and Liberals have no chance in this election.
15/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
I think the Greens spoil the party for the left. Schreiner does not have the profile of an Elizabeth May or an Andrew Weaver. He has enough profile to get enough of the vote to split the 'progressive' vote with the NDP and Liberals but just as Guelph went PC in the rising blue tide of the Harris years, I would look for a PC win. The 'throw the bums out' vote is clearly going to be with the PC's all over the province, and you need past Liberal votes to win this riding. The harder you shake the Liberal tree, the more of those votes that shake loose fall into the PC basket.
PC 33%
GR 27%
LIB 22%
NDP 18% or thereabouts
15/05/2018 WestHam
It is conceivable that the Tories win this riding. If the Tory vote rises above 25%, and the Greens do well but not well enough, and the anti-Tory vote doesn't coalesce around the Libs or NDP, then it's Tory by a hair.
I don't know what the Greens are saying in this riding, but perhaps they just have to be unprincipled with a slogan of 'take a chance on me', 'put a spotlight on Guelph, vote Green'.
They can tell Tory voters that the Tories are going to win the province but not Guelph, so go with something really different.
They can tell Lib and NDP voters that the Tories are going to win the province, so why vote for an opposition backbencher. Let's go with something really different, put Guelph on the political spotlight in the province.
14/05/2018 Some Guy From Vancouver Island
While I absolutely cannot comment on the current ground game in Guelph (or anywhere in Ontario, for that matter), I think that it's worth considering how Greens from other parts of the country were able to win their seats. In BC, Elizabeth May and Andrew Weaver both won in right-leaning districts with a boost from personal popularity (Weaver wasn't even the leader of the BC Greens at this point). On PEI, Peter Bevan-Baker won a practical landslide in his riding, despite having run in the same riding in the previous election with less than 10%, and in what was arguably the most bipartisan province in the country. In New Brunswick, David Coon won his seat with only 30%, in a four-way race in a bellwether district.
Schreiner's case in Guelph is clearly most similar to Coon's, although there are a few notable differences. Schreiner will probably benefit from the Liberals' growing unpopularity more than Coon did from the PCs in New Brunswick, and Guelph appears to be less conservative than Fredericton South. However, the Ontario NDP are a much stronger force than the New Brunswick NDP, and if the NDP begin to consistently overtake the Liberals in the provincial polls, Schreiner may have less of a chance here from a left-leaning vote split.
Another race that this is worth comparing to is the 2015 federal election result in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. The Green candidate, Paul Manly, arguably had the best ground game, and a decent number of people thought he would win the seat. He ended up coming in fourth - but with nearly 20% of the vote. The NDP candidate ended up winning with only 33%. Since anti-Harper sentiment was strong on Vancouver Island, many voters were concerned about the vote split from FPTP and voted NDP, even if they preferred Manly. This was especially so since this riding was created from parts of Nanaimo-Alberni, which had an extremely conservative MP for a long time.
In short, Schreiner's chances depend on how much Guelph voters are against Wynne or Ford. If they specifically dislike either of them more than the other, voters will be more concerned about the vote split, and a good NDP campaign here will make that a lot worse. If Schreiner can alleviate his supporters of these concerns and push for local popularity as a candidate, he can certainly win Guelph, but he may have a harder time than what Weaver, Bevan-Baker and Coon had.
12/05/2018 MIC
I love the enthusiam of Green supporters. But lets get real. In this election people have the choice to hand Ford a majority or prevent one. With Liberals and Greens down in the polls. The people of Guelph wont be wasting what could be a critical choice between NDP and PC to waste it on the Greens.
This election belongs to the NDP. Liberals and Greens, who are not fanatical, will go NDP this time. If anything Greens will be down from their 19% last time. Definitely not up.
11/05/2018 PM
How open are the people of Guelph to vote green? While support for Mike & the Greens keeps increasing each election, is there a ceiling? Hopefully not. If there was a time for people in Guelph to say 'Ok Mike, lets see what you got', this is it. Between people tired of the Liberals and not 100% sold on Doug Ford, people are looking outside their normal voting patterns this election across Ontario. That is good news for the NDP and Greens.
09/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Too close to call, and the anomalous strength of the Greens limits the usefulness of regional polling, except that the Tories are up, and the Liberals are down.
But note that the students have gone home for the summer, and, there are virtually no farms in the riding.
03/05/2018 Stephen Best
Guelph is a genuine four-way race. It's quite possible that the new MLA from Guelph will win with less than 30% of the vote. Of the four parties, the Greens have, by far, the best ground game, so far at least. The PCs have been canvassing a little, but not much is happening in the Liberal or NDP camps, that I can tell. That could and is likely to change soon. Of the candidates, Mike Schreiner has worn out the most shoe leather, as he's been campaigning hard out for, at least, the last three years, including canvassing door-to-door on local issues. By now, there aren't too many voters in Guelph who don't know Schreiner. Few people in Guelph know the other parties' candidates. If hard work decided elections, Schreiner would win in a landslide.
01/05/2018 Educated voter
Greens have it in the bag because the greens have been working the vote for a very long time, and the farmers , the students like the greens.
29/04/2018 PM
Everyone agree's that the Liberals will lose votes in Guelph but how many is the question. If they manage to get still get 25% of the votes on June 7th, then they are in the thick of it. However, if they drop down to 20%, then we'll have a fun night ahead. Regardless this is a 4 party race. The winner may not even break 30% of the total vote. This will be tight to the end unless Wynne or Ford say/do something dumb and cost their own party votes.
23/04/2018 seasaw
@jeff316, earlier you had asked how many of the 22,000 Liberal voters will switch. Looking at the past history you'll know that the Liberals lost about 45% of their support between 1987-1990, the NDP was the beneficiary of most, also NDP lost a similar proportion between 1990-1995, PC's got all those votes and then some. So, answer to your question is anywhere between 0-10,000, and the PC's will be the beneficiary of most if they win.
If the Liberals win, they may even get more votes than the last election
The liberal vote is collapsing here...a vote for the Greens is way for unhappy Liberals to support along with others who want a different spin at QP
21/04/2018 seasaw
This is my riding and in my opinion the most interesting riding. The PC candidate is Ray Ferraro, the brother of Rick, Liberal MPP from 1985-1990. Ray is also a former Liberal. It's going to be interesting to see how many Liberal supporters he can woo to the PC camp. Many longtime Liberals are saying that if Harry Worton was alive today, he wouldn't be supporting the Liberals. An accurate prediction can be made the week before the vote
21/04/2018 jeff316
Provincial polling numbers are not indicative of Guelph. Liberal strength is in urban areas just like Guelph. So in reality, the number of Liberal voters switching is much lower ~ 5000. The Green win examples are perfect. None of them needed to move > 15000 votes. In PEI and Fredericton, they only needed < 2500. Local races with small voters are easiest to win. Schreiner has to move > 20000 and that's not even counting shifts to the PCs who have a huge headstart. People who work elections know that parties focus on shifting votes on the margins because shifting votes is like shifting rocks. It's easiest to move the fewest possible and, once in a while, pushing a few gets you a landslide. In Guelph, Schreiner is right in the middle - he needs to move a lot of rocks and there is no Green wave coming.
20/04/2018 PM
There will be a shift in votes this election as this premier is just so unpopular. Maybe the people of Guelph are finally going to give Mike his chance. It will be close regardless. Should make for an exciting election night.
2018-04-1 Kyle H
re: jeff316 'how many voters are really going to change!' commentary
So true, hence why the PCs are still in power in Alberta, the NDP never won more than Mulcair's seat in Quebec, and late 1980s/early 1990s there was never a Liberal wave then a NDP wave then a PC wave in the span of three elections.
Also, there were never any come-from-nowhere wins for the Greens in Fredericton South, Kellys Cross-Cumberland, Oak Bay-Gordon Head or Cowichan Valley where the margins between the Greens and the leading candidates in the previous elections were far larger than the one between Sandals and Schreiner in 2014. Nevermind the huge boosts Greens have never gotten in ridings in the past like Central Nova, BGOS provincially, Saanich-Gulf Islands, many of them versus incumbents, unlike here where there is none and also its versus a government struggling to win re-election...
Given that none of this happened, I completely agree with you Jeff. Impossible!
jeff316 - based on the last Mainstreet poll provincial numbers, and the last election:
22,014 * (38.65 - 23.9) / 38.65 = 8401
8,401 Guelph voters would switch their vote.
And most disaffected Liberals seem to be going to the PCs.
09/04/2018 jeff316
You have to ask yourself: how many of the last election's voters are going to switch their vote? In the case of Guelph, how many of the 22 000 Liberal voters are likely to vote for another party? Have the events of the last four years really turned off that many of those voters? Unlikely. With Wynne doing a similar left-deke again in this election and the spectre of Doug Ford on the horizon, the answer is easy: not enough to put Schreiner in. Which is crushing, because if Schreiner can't win here, he can't win anywhere.
07/04/2018 A.S.
What's interesting about the whole Brown-to-Ford PC leadership debacle/distraction is how it's blown Mike Schreiner off-radar--but a caveat here: not out of contention, just off-radar. Big difference. Oh, a memo to Not Non-Partisan: in practice, the presence of students or lack thereof makes little or no difference--thanks to professors, supporting staff, etc, 'university town' economies tend to be a year-round thing these days. And of course, the last provincial election, where the Tories were locally snarled with Green & NDP, also happened to be in June.
07/04/2018 OntarioEye
The Green Leader will win his seat, and be the first elected Green MPP in Ontario history.
05/04/2018 C. H.
With Liz Sandals retiring, Wynne's unpopularity, and Guelph being a university town where Ford won't play well, Mike Schreiner definitely has his best-ever shot at this riding. However, the Liberals are probably still the favourite here (though not a big one) given their 20-point victory in 2014, and the PCs can't be counted out if they do as well as they're polling. Probably a three-way TCTC race between the Liberals, PCs, and Greens.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
Ever since Liz Sandals retired, I've thought this pretty consistently - Mike Schreiner will win Guelph on June 7, becoming Ontario's first Green MPP. Honestly it's an article of faith for me at this point.
Let me explain my reasoning in a simple 3-point format:
1. We already know this is one of the strongest Green ridings even without the leader running there. As far back as 2003, the Greens were getting results well above their average in the riding both provincially and federally. It isn't just a core of students, either, though that certainly helps; the city's core is chock full of Green demographic targets, the comfortably middle-class voters-with-a-conscience that dance around the left of the spectrum, in addition to it being a very white riding with an educated population. Guelph is essentially a clone of places where the Greens have won before - Saanich, Oak Bay, heck even Fredericton, and it has that without the complicating government worker group. In Ontario, this is *the* riding for the Greens.
2. In addition to being demograhics-wise one of the most Green ridings, it has that laid-back, small-town feel that plays well to Green sensibilities, in addition to *also* being affluent enough to play to the Ontario Green's particular quirks (they're generally more to the right than you'd expect, more Liberal-lite). It also helps that Schreiner is a local and he's already run here - he knows the community and he knows what the voters want, and he'll be playing up to that.
3. Sandals may have kept the riding for the Liberals, but she's gone. Sly Castaldi is a good candidate but she won't benefit from incumbency in what's looking like a wave election, especially outside of Toronto. The PC candidates offered so far are people you couldn't pick out of a line-up, and the NDP's Broscombe (only name I've seen so far) is little better. Maybe if one of those two parties get a strong candidate, they can win this - but if not, Schreiner has the name recognition, the organization, and at this point (a month before campaigning starts) the best chance to grab anti-Liberal momentum than anyone else - this isn't a Ford or Horwath riding. Frankly, it's just time as well; Greens have been making waves BC, PEI, NB, even Manitoba nearly elected one in 2016, very simply its Ontario's turn to put up a good Green showing.
Schreiner will win this, mark my words.
27/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Look for a Tory star candidate to emerge here. There are few UofG students around by June 7.
22/03/2018 MF
A more crunchy granola Kingston closer to the GTA orbit, the Liberals have emerged as the default anti-Conservative option in Guelph. If the Liberals are reduced to one SW Ontario seat, it'll be this one. It will be interesting to see how Mike Schreiner does - will the Greens receive more votes than the NDP again?
22/03/2018 ML
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the PCs win Guelph. I think with the Green Party putting on a strong campaign in this riding, the centre-left/left vote will be split between the Liberals, NDP and Greens, and the Conservatives coming up the middle (figuratively, not politically).
20/03/2018 seasaw
Guelph Today, the online newspaper here, just conducted a poll, and the results were PC: 42%, Lib: 25%, NDP: 19% and Green: 15%. Now I don't think this poll is very accurate and it's not a scientific poll, but it speaks volumes about the discontent with the current government. Other posters have mentioned facts from previous federal elections, but you have to stop and ask, what do federal elections of 7 and 10 years ago have to do with today's provincial election? Yes 10 years ago the riding bucked the trend and elected a Liberal, that wasn't because the Liberals were popular, it was because the Tories had nominated a candidate democratically, but the party brass felt that he wasn't the right candidate and installed their own, a move which angered all the local Tories, most of whom refused to support them in the next election. As I mentioned before, whom ever wins the next election will win this riding as well
19/03/2018 Stevo
The Kingston of southwestern Ontario. University town, but more greeny/dippy than its eastern Ontario twin. The Harper Conservatives tried mightily to dislodge this seat from the Liberals' grasp to no avail. Right now the Wynne Liberals are approaching fringe party levels in southwestern Ontario but I feel that most of their residual strength in the region is centred right here in Guelph. They'll have to fight but I predict they hold this as the lone Liberal seat in southern Ontario west of the GTA.
11/03/2018 Stephen B
I live in KW but have done some work on campaigns in Guelph, and believe this will be a Liberal hold even if they lose government fairly badly. Obviously Sandals had name recognition, but she is not fantastically well-liked in the riding (another submitter noted that), and her departure won't be a huge disadvantage for the Grits. I also think that her departure (unlike others') will not be seen by constituents as a rat leaving the sinking ship, so much as a normal retirement. She is in her 70s.
Others have predicted a Green victory here. I believe they will increase their share of the vote (unless locals perceive an extremely close Liberal-Tory race provincially, in which case the Liberal share will increase even if they lose province-wide). This will NOT come at the expense of the Liberal candidate, though: Sandals' share of the vote was static for the last four elections. The Green share went from around seven percent to almost twenty percent when Mike ran, and almost none of this came from the Liberals. Nearly all of it came from the Tories and the NDP, and if Mike earns another five percentage points, it will again.
My (I think) radical prediction will be that the Greens come in second here...but still with barely half the vote-share that the Liberals have.
As an aside, since today is The Day After, nobody in Guelph who didn't vote for Hudak in 2014 will vote for Ford in 2018. But that won't be a big part of the mathematics that lead to a Grit hold here.
14/02/2018 seasaw
The Liberal candidate, Sly Castaldi is a very well respected member of the community, she can win this if she was running on her own the problem is that she's Wynne's candidate and Wynne's even less popular here than Donald Trump. The Greens, they don't have much of a chance since their ceiling is 20%. The PC's can win this, and they don't have a ceiling of 30%, they've gotten higher than 50% here, but they will have to have 5 things. A good platform, a good candidate, a good campaign team, a leader who doesn't put his/her foot in the mouth and last but not least money. As I mentioned earlier, we have to wait and see how the campaign goes before predicting a winner
07/02/2018 R.O.
I actually think the Green Leader has more of a chance here than he did in 2014 . first off the incumbent Liz Sandals is retiring and it looks like the new liberal candidate is someone named Sly Castaldi . the pc
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
I'm leaning to green on this one. I live in the riding and with the LPO not very popular, the PC leadership having just sustained a complete collapse, and the leader of the green running here, I think Mike stands a decent chance of taking this one. We'll see. TCTC might be the 'correct' choice right up until election day.
16/12/2017 Christopher L
I'd say Guelph is likely to stay Liberal, although it could be at risk to either the PCs or maybe even the Greens if the OLP runs a really brutal campaign. I grew up in Guelph and have watched it become a significantly more progressive, centre-left sort of place over that time. It's certainly not the bellweather it once was - federally it was one of only 11 Ontario ridings to stay Liberal in 2011 (although part of that was due to the personal popularity of Frank Valeriote). So that makes it a very challenging place for the PCs to win - everything has to go right. Also, it's important to note that Liz Sandals, despite being a 4-term MP, has no real personal popularity - she's a colourless figure and I don't know anyone who particularly likes her. So having to run a new candidate won't be a problem for the OLP. I think they hold the riding.
14/12/2017 Tory in Dixie
This riding will need a pretty hefty Tory swing to actually go blue ... as best and as brief as I can summarize Guelph has bucked provincial and federal trends historically and probably will do so in the future. For a time in the 1980s and 1990s it was a bellwether riding but increasing growth has made the riding trend more Liberal - (very much in evidence federally in 2011, but I believe same dynamics could hold provincially). Perhaps somewhat ironic that for a good portion of the 1950s - 1980s when the Tories dominated Queen's Park the riding was consistently Liberal due to a more southwestern Ontario rural character of the riding at the time - Ontario provincial Liberals in those days being more along the lines of small-l rural liberals - the Nixons, Farquhar Oliver, Eddie Seargant and in Guelph, Harry Worton. Bottom line, Patrick Brown will need a big swing his way to turn Guelph blue, or there is a marked vote split with the left-of-centre parties.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is an interesting one. It is Mike Schreiner's riding and considering that many people seem to like the idea of at least one Green MP, I would not be the least bit surprised if they pick this up. That being said as a university town and with today's millennials being more progressive than younger people in the past and the Liberals running on a leftish platform I could see the OLP holding this even without Liz Sandals. PCs have a ceiling of around 30% so they need a very strong split on the left to have any shot here. They won this last in 1999 when it was Guelph-Wellington so the loss of the rural parts where they usually run up the margins makes it a lot tougher to win.
11/12/2017 seasaw
@teddy b, it didn't take long at all for a usual ludicrous Green prediction to pop up. Also, what has Green success in BC, NB and PEI have to do with this riding? Last election the Green did pull all their resources, sent a couple hundred paid employees to help with their campaign and they still finished behind the PC's who spent little money and only 6 people working on their campaign. So the Greens can dream all they want, this riding is going to be a fight between Liberals and Conservatives, NDP, Green, they'll be lucky to get enough votes to get their deposits back
10/12/2017 teddy boragina
Call me crazy, but based on the math alone, the Greens would win this riding on current polling levels. Elections in NB, PE, and BC have shown the party that success depends on focusing like madmen on the riding the leader runs in. The party wins on the math alone, add the fact they will be throwing every dollar on this seat, and you have a near lock.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
The retirement of Liz Sandals, a June election that will put most students back in their home ridings to vote, and generally horrendous poll numbers in Southwestern Ontario all work against the Liberals holding on.
In the Liberals' favour is the almost even split between the Tories and NDP last time around; a repeat performance gives them a chance in a 3-way race.
10/12/2017 seasaw
Here we go, I'm the first to comment. A lot of people call this riding a Liberal stronghold. Sure, they have won the last 4, however let's get a closer look at their wins. After her narrow victory in 2003, Liz Sandals has won 3 elections without difficulty, but her PC opponents, Senechal, Schirk and McDonald, not only lacked profile, they were also short on cash, organization and manpower. In the last election, I've been told that McDonald ran the campaign with 1/2 dozen people. Sandals is retiring and none of the three major parties have a candidate. Greens believe that they can win here but they're a long shot. It should also be noted that this riding has elected candidates from the winning party in each of the last 9 elections.

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