Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Prediction Changed
2018-05-27 01:23:00

Constituency Profile










   Ted McMeekin

   (66.22% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton Centre
   Andrea Horwath

   (22.28% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton Mountain
   Monique Taylor

   (11.50% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):109535

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20760 43.21%
12383 25.78%
11941 24.86%
2368 4.93%
OTHERS 588 1.22%
Total Transposed 48040

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed33546

     Hamilton Centre

Total Transposed9460

     Hamilton Mountain

Total Transposed5033

Federal Election Result (2015):

Filomena Tassi
Vincent Samuel
Alex Johnstone
Peter Ormond


31/05/2018 MF
Making a definitive call for the NDP. Mainstreet Research conducted a poll and the NDP has a double digit lead. The small-'l' liberal vote has moved behind the NDP and this riding is a bit fit for Ford-style conservatism. McMeekin is at just 15% in the Mainstreet poll.
29/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Outrunning the 'generic Liberal baseline here' means breaking into the double digits. Add McMeekin to the list, headed by Jim Bradley, of Liberals who ignored the writing on the wall.
23/05/2018 Christopher L
Another riding that's shaping up to be a real three-way race. McMeekin's number will be seriously cut - he'll lose votes to the NDP in Dundas and Westdale, and to the PCs in Ancaster, but I think the Liberal base will hold just enough, especially in Dundas, for Ted to squeak back to Queen's Park (where he might be the only Liberal left west of the GTA)...
23/05/2018 MJC
McMeekin's high personal popularity means that he will outrun the generic Liberal baseline here. My guess is that he loses, but does well enough to spoil the NDP's shot and elect the flawed PC candidate.
20/05/2018 Dork in East York
This a very interesting three-way race. I can't help but give McMeekin the tiniest of the edge, but boy, McMeekin has never run with such low Liberal polling numbers. Can Ted's local popularity carry him across the finish line? It will be close.
The Horwath wave will flip this riding ....as the liberals implode
20/05/2018 dave
Ted McMeekin is popular but he wont win, his popularity will likely result in a clean left split with NDP, allowing Ben Levitt to win. He is running a strong campaign, if signs are to be believed.
20/05/2018 MF
Another Liberal prediction withdrawn. There is a pretty solid NDP base here (25% in the last provincial) and with the NDP pulling ahead a lot of the riding's 'liberally minded' are likely to switch to the NDP. Plus Hamilton is Andrea Horwath's hometown and it may be for her what Edmonton is for Rachel Notley (though admittedly Hamilton is much less important in Ontario politics than Edmonton is in Alberta politics). The PCs could slip through I suppose, but there's a pretty low PC vote from last time and the riding isn't 'Fordian' at all. Hard to say McMeekin making it with the Liberals stuck in third. Marking this TCTC.
15/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Retracting my liberal prediction and I'm saying TCTC three-way race. The liberals are stinking up the place and while I think McMeekin will hold on to a lot of previous support, I think bleeding to the NDP will make this competitive.
08/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Further details from the Maclean's poll.
NDP 58
PC 27
Lib 9
So, not Liberal.
29/04/2018 A.S.
Confusing prospect, and I still wouldn't rule out the Horwathlandia NDP here--the parts which were in NDP ridings weren't the strongest, but they *were* in NDP ridings; while Westdale was in and even electorally fueled NDP turf pre-2004; and given a favourable riding draw (which it's seldom had), much if not most of Dundas is also capable of falling into NDP formation. Which leaves Ancaster. And the key there would be a split btw/ the loathed yet McMeekin-incumbent Liberals, and the toxically nomination-tarred Tories--or more viscerally, the Escarpment-clinging affluence which may find the Ford Tories too ungenteel, vs the Redeemer UC element which'd be absolutely inclined t/w DoFo/GranicAllen. Let us keep in mind that even with the add-ons, this seat gives us very solid Lib numbers for 2014; and that even with Dundas & Westdale, the previous federal entity kept David Sweet solidly aloft for the fed Cons. So, three ways we'd be looking at here.
The train wreak of the PC nomination continues with it being canceled due to the weather...This will be a Liberal hold in the midst of a blue wave
07/04/2018 OntarioEye
If Levitt wins for the PC's here this is a loss. Man is a dirty candidate, and though Brown got the result he 'wanted' here last time, a failure to change the candidate will be a loss. This one is TCTC right now, but we will know better after the PC Nomination meeting
First of all waaaay to premature of a projection.
The Liberals are still polling behind the NDP even after Ford won leadership of the PCs.
Ancaster is very tory leaning part of the riding and Fords populism actually sells her.
If the PCs are headed for a majority, this seat will be apart of that.
26/03/2018 Dr.Bear
Anyone who thinks this is typical Ford turf has never set foot in Dundas or Westdale. These two districts are the antithesis of 'Ford turf': affluent and progressive. Ford is going to have broader appeal in Hamilton Mountain and Stoney Creek than here. If the Liberals do lose this riding in June (while I'm not calling that, I would not be surprised at all if I am wrong) it's because of Wynne's abysmal approval ratings, not the locals cheering Doug Ford's name.
23/03/2018 Craig
This is the one riding in Hamilton that favours the Liberals. Ancaster and Dundas are the most upscale parts of that city and the most educated, hence they would naturally be Red Tory/Liberal but will strongly reject Rob Ford's populism, defaulting to the Liberals. Hamilton West is left-leaning, but McMaster won't be in session in June so they can't rely on them.
Without Flamborough, the PC's are not going to win like David Sweet did federally for nearly a decade. Also, without the McMaster base and without a strong protest or working class base, this is not going NDP. As a result, McMeekin should be remain the only Liberal from Hamilton.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
This is the typical Ford turf. Anyone who thinks that there is a safe Liberal seat in the region is whistling past the graveyard.
22/03/2018 MF
This is the small-'l' liberal middle class seat of Hamilton. Doug Ford is not a good fit for Westdale, Dundas etc. I can actually seem him resonating more in working class Hamilton Mountain over this one (even though the NDP is most likely to keep this). The nomination controversy may be inside baseball but it likely demoralizes the local PC activists. The 'progressive' and anti-Ford vote is likely to coalesce around McMeekin.
20/03/2018 Stevo
The redistricting of Flamborough out of this riding turned what was once a jumbled perpetual 3-way race into more of a typical Liberal-leaning seat on the edge of the GTA's orbit. Meaning that it will go Liberal under most circumstances but is liable to flip, either to PC if it wins a majority, or NDP if it has an unusually strong campaign. The election being in June, the NDP cannot count on a boost from McMaster. Too early to call it here.
21/03/2018 PY
According to CHCH and the CBC micro-bureau in Hamilton, local police likely won't be able to complete their investigation into the PC nomination before the election. This will cast a pall on their campaign and will be difficult for the average constituent in HWAD to willingly ignore.
As for Sandy Shaw, she'll need to do more than simply capitalize on the anti-Wynne sentiment that's made its way throughout the province for a while or rely on the backing of her next door neighbour...goodness knows it didn't exactly work out between Shaw's more famous namesake and a singer of some renown himself whose surname doesn't quite rhyme with 'horsey.'
Nope...short of a performance more along the lines of the apocalyptic federal Liberal campaign seven years ago, Ted McMeekin should take this.
Now, cue that swampy bass line...
19/03/2018 jeff316
If this were anyone but McMeekin this would be an NDP riding already! But his personal popularity and general classiness will hold on.
16/03/2018 Dr.Bear
While I agree that the nomination meetings are 'insider baseball' and the average person doesn't think about it, if the nomination is messy, this can result in the party faithful not pulling their weight for the candidate. THAT can really mess up the ground game and swing the race one way or another. That said, it seems the PC party has decided to overturn the nomination in this riding. That can't be good for mending fences and moving forward for the party.
It appears that the police are investigating the nomination meeting for wrongdoings. If that's so, it really reflects poorly on the party in this riding. This can never be a good sign. Undecided voters may be asking themselves, 'Do I risk electing someone who is under police investigation before even getting elected, or do I stick with the tried and true (and maybe tired) incumbent?'
12/03/2018 Stephen B
Not only will this be a Liberal hold, it will be a strong one, whether they lose government or not. McMeekin is well-known and -liked here, and the Tory candidate is green. The average voters won't know or care about the Tories' nomination issues, but it doesn't bode well for their ground game and getting volunteers out, which would be critical here.
14/02/2018 RD
Ontario Tories urged to clear the air over Hamilton nomination: https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/02/13/ontario-tories-urged-to-clear-the-air-over-hamilton-nomination-race.html
09/02/2018 RD
The NDP candidate in this riding is Sandy Shaw. Source: https://www.thespec.com/news-story/7689789-sandy-shaw-named-ndp-candidate-for-2018-provincial-election/
Ms. Shaw ran a credible campaign for an open city council seat within the boundaries of this riding in the last municipal election, finishing second to the elected councilor Aidan Johnson. With transposition, the NDP took a close third within these boundaries in the last provincial election, receiving just 442 less votes than the PCs, albeit amost 9000 votes behind the Liberals.
Still the Liberals popularity has clearly declined since 2014 and their candidate is a little long in the tooth. McMeekin has been in office since 2000 but he stepped down from cabinet in 2016 and it was not entirely clear, until recently, that he would even run again. Moreover, before being elected MPP he had been Mayor of Flamborough, which is no longer in the riding, so while he could obviously still rely on the general Liberal support base here, he no longer has the same personal support base to fall back upon. Given the Liberals' issues, recent candidate troubles for the PCs, and potential spillover effect of having the NDP leader running next door, I think this riding definitely has potential as an NDP pickup
04/02/2018 Max N
I wouldn't read too much into the internal PC quarrels for this riding. It's inside baseball that the average voter isn't following. This riding will come down to provincial and regional trends. I give McMeekin a slight edge given that the rural and more conservative rural areas of Hamilton are no longer in his riding.
30/01/2018 Dr.Bear
@Seesaw: I do not disagree with you and I think you make a good point (re: past performance vs future performance). As I mentioned, I was making a rather bold prediction on what I foresee happening, and would not be surprised if I turned out to be very wrong. Really I think we are both on the same page.
As for your comment about the PC party staying out of trouble...oopsy-daisy! So much for that.
But an additional point: I was recently listening to Eric Grenier's Pollcast about the millenial vote and how significant it is. With McMaster University being in this riding, there are many such voters here. Wynne's policies seem to be of someone courting this vote, as was Brown's (ie: a move away from the angry old man image that Conservatives sometimes portrait). With Brown gone, I wonder how his successor will fare in that department. Of the names put forward, I don't see them doing well here.
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, PC would likely have picked up this seat with ease despite the nomination controversy. With the PC in implosion mode and Ben Levitt's close association to the Brown team, I bet McMeekin might just luck out.
21/01/2018 seasaw
@Dr Bear, You referred to Liberal numbers improving as the campaign goes on. I kinda agree with that as well, the reason we think that way is because it has happened in the three previous elections and there's a very good chance that it's going to happen again. What we're not considering here, is the old disclaimer ' past performance doesn't necessarily guarantee future performance ', if the Tories manage to stay out of trouble in the first two weeks of the campaign, then the focus will be shifted to Liberal baggage, and it'll be very difficult for the Liberals to overcome. That coupled with the fact that we have a premier and government with historic low approval, will make it extra hard for the Liberals. As far as this riding goes, McMeekin is popular and he might win even if the Liberals get spanked elsewhere, but if the Liberals fall too low, he will lose this riding
20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
While I think a TCTC prediction is the correct one right now, I'm going to make a bold prediction and say the Liberals will hold this riding for a number of reasons:
First, redistribution has removed the most conservative portions of the riding. This makes holding the riding easier for them. Second, Ted McMeekin is well liked and established, giving his team the edge just from experience. The PC candidate, Ben Levitt, is only 25 years old and does not have the experience or name recognition in the community. Couple that with a nasty nomination battle that has lead to legal issues, and we have an incohesive PC team. The NDP are quite weak in this part of Hamilton and won't be a major factor. Third, while the PC would take this riding under current polling numbers, it is highly unlikely that these numbers will stay. I am expecting Wynne to put up a formative fight once the campaign starts in earnest, and poll numbers will go up for the Liberals. Bottom line: an uncomfortably close win for McMeekin.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This riding has faced major controversies on the PC side so could very well cost them this one. Ted McMeekin is also personally popular so still has a good chance even if his party loses. The NDP is too weak in Ancaster and to a lesser extent Dundas so at best they will play a spoiler role since if they do well they could create the necessary vote splits for the PCs to win this, while if they do poorly the Liberals should hold this.
11/12/2017 Benji
The PC have a strong candidate with a great team and with the liberals struggling in the polls I feel that it's going blue.
I disagree that if the Liberals collapse, this will go NDP. This is a suburban riding. Ancaster is very Tory and with a vote split on the left in Hamilton, the PCs win this.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Too close to call.
Riding Ted McMeekin's incumbency is the Liberal's only chance here - and it will be close - if he follows up his resignation from Cabinet with a retirement from Queen's Park, this seat probably leans NDP.

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