Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-05 16:30:00

Constituency Profile









   Lisa M. Thompson

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):104842

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14647 30.86%
18512 39.01%
10843 22.85%
1651 3.48%
OTHERS 1804 3.80%
Total Transposed 47457

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed47457

Federal Election Result (2015):

Ben Lobb **
Allan Thompson
Gerard Creces
Jutta Splettstoesser


05/06/2018 M.C.
I disagree. The last Mainstreet poll had PC support at 47.5% and NDP at 31.5 in Huron-Bruce with Don Matheson sitting a distant 14.8. That's a lot of ground for Johnstone and/or Matheson to make back at this point (if the poll's accurate). Thompson has absolutely trounced the other candidates at the debates(especially ag-related). I don't think the election results will mirror the polls- the margin will be a lot thinner than that, but I'm still predicting a PC win.
I think this riding could very well go NDP. There's enough concern here about the PC party leadership, and the fact that many economists are showing that the PCs will run the highest deficit. What a mistake to not cost their platform. And there is a strong dislike of the Liberal leader based almost solely on the hydro debacle. In Huron, poverty is visibly on the rise and people are concerned about it. Bruce is more diverse (and therefore left-leaning) than even the last census shows. I'm predicting an NDP win, even though the margin will be razor-thin.
Lisa Thompson is not going to lose her seat with her party up 6-7 points from last time. She wins by double digits; not sure why this is TCTC so late.
Unless everyone who doesn't want a Ford-led government votes NDP, the left vote will be split and our incumbent will be re-elected. Wynne's recent suggestion that people vote Liberal to keep save the province from both ends of the spectrum seems odd considering how close the Libs and NDP are on policy. Check out CBC's vote compass to see this. If people realize this and get behind the NDP candidate, the outcome might be different. Frankly, I think we're lucky in H-B that all of our candidates are capable, well-liked and accessible.
02/06/2018 PM
Should be a PC hold here. Liberals will lose a lot of votes but while the NDP benefits the most, so too will the Greens & PC's. That alone will keep this riding blue. NDP will finish 2nd. Close but not close enough.
PC> 43%, NDP>32%, LIB>15%, GRN>7% OTH>3%
01/06/2018 Rail Splitter
Finally saw a current public poll for Huron Bruce from this week. Main street research shows Lisa Thompson PC 47.5, NDP 31 and Liberals 14. These numbers are backed up by a likely more accurate straw poll at the coffee shop. Drive around and you will see very few if any NDP and Liberal lawn signs east of Hwy 21 with PC signs everywhere on private property. There are even PC signs now standing on the lawns of some life long liberal supporters. Sounds like Thompson has led the way at the debates and absolutely dominated at the agricultural debates. I was at the local debate at Port and thought Don Matheson had a good showing but It was pointed out that you can't claim the win when you are jeered by your hometown crowd. It was also mentioned that Matheson and Johnstone read everything were as Thompson has such a good working knowledge of the issues that she can just stand up and accurately speak to them. So our coffee shop poll has a PC win with the NDP a respectable second and the Liberals a distant third.
29/05/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberal collapse appears to be splitting about 50-50 between the NDP and PCs: An easy hold.
5/28/2018 prognosticator15
I do not buy a prediction of complete Liberal collapse and project the Liberals will retain about half of their seats as opposed to only several as some polls suggest. However, this is a rather strange riding to call for Liberals. I would say in rural and small town PC-held areas the Liberals are less likely to score a win, and they now clearly concentrate on winnable and competitive areas like central Toronto and Ottawa (mostly against NDP), Peel region (mostly against the PC) and selected pockets of srtength in University and public sector-dependent ridings (for ex., Guelph). In Huron-Bruce, demographics and a strong PC candidate with level of support sufficient not to be too dependent on the party leader (surely, a minister in case of PC win) suggest a clear PC lead. While NDP may not be too popular in nuclear inductry, nor is it a Liberal stronghold, hardly a stronghold for any party. In fact, where energy issues come into play, Liberals are the least popular due to 'green energy' and cost of living in rural Ontario, and NDP is also unpopular. The likeliest scenario here is PC win irrespective of the degree of left vote split - and it is hard to imagine any debates changing this dynamic (even a-if Matheson really 'won' as suggested below).
27/05/2018 Rural Watcher
Strange, this riding goes too close to call and all of the sudden, the campaigns start posting for their candidate. I think TCTC is the right call for right now in this riding. But, the fact that it's a three-way race suggests to me that it favours Thompson and the PC's, assuming a split in the left materializes. That said, Matheson is popular in the vote-rich north part of the riding, where the NDP has always struggled to break through because of their anti-nuclear reputation. Thompson will obviously carry lots of support with the redneck social conservatives in the riding and Johnstone will be carrying the NDP momentum. All three are in it, but I think Thompson will ultimately be re-elected because the left will split.
26/05/2018 Bean Counter
This is TCTC. I don't know how you can count the liberal candidate Matheson out. The libs have owned the north. This will be no different. PC's and NDP's are working harder than ever in Saugeen Shores, because they know he owns it. Don't count him out in Walkerton or Kincardine either. There are no polls to show what's happening and he scored a victory at the debate in Saugeen Shores. Should be an interesting 12 days to come.
26/05/2018 Resident
I see a ground swell of support for the Liberal candidate Don Matheson. After a couple of debates and consistent work throughout the riding he could surprise the incumbent Lisa Thompson. Jan Johnstone is an also ran multiple times in this riding and has never gained votes from across the whole riding. I think it will be close with votes going to the Liberals from the NDP and PC both. There will be change in Huron-Bruce this time around.
23/05/2018 M.C.
Personally think this is one of the safer PC seats. Incumbent Lisa Thompson is very well-liked in the riding and importantly has strong connections in both Huron and Bruce counties. Both Liberal and NDP candidates are primarily Bruce-based. She
25/05/2018 Robert S
I feel this is TCTC riding Jan Johnstone has a lot of support in the Kincardine area I firmly believe it depends on how many liberal votes switch to the NDP
5/24/2018 Chris Peabody
Lisa Thompson is a very hard worker. Her constituency work is outstanding. This will assure Lisa a victory in Huron-Bruce.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
While TCTC is a reasonable call at the moment, I think ultimately the riding will stay PC. The NDP will siphon off liberal support, but not enough to overcome the PCs. A popular PC incumbent will help keep PC numbers robust. If we start talking about an NDP majority, then this becomes very interesting.
23/05/2018 FormerResident
Back in 2011, with the NDP surging, there were similar claims from NDP supporters that this riding would flip their way. Except when the votes were counted the collapse in the Liberal support didn
23/05/2018 Christopher L
This is by no means a rock-solid PC seat - it's got a deep Liberal history and the Tories rarely win big majorities. But I don't see them losing it this time - the Liberals are down too much provincially, and Wynne is particularly unpopular in the rural southwest. The NDP could put up a good showing, but unless they take the vast majority of the 2014 Liberal vote, they won't be able to catch up. The PCs should get at least 40-45% of the vote, and that will be enough to win.
23/05/2018 SteveJames
This riding has always been small c conservative and certainly has become Progressive Conservative/CPC in recent years with the changing dynamic of Liberal and New Democrat parties at both levels of Government.
It is almost a surefire win for the PC incumbent Lisa Thompson, not only due to the composition of the riding and its conservative tendencies but based on her as a candidate. When people refer to Liberals winning the riding in the past they were well known, on the ground, agriculturally minded people. Thompson has that, well liked and known throughout the riding, close to her community and very visible. Beyond that, the PC Team under Ford seemingly resonates even more with the hardworking everyday person in Huron-Bruce. His rally drew one of his largest crowds. I've had many stalwart liberals say to me that 1) the PC's will take the riding no problem, and 2) looking at Lisa as a candidate and respected individual they are more inclined to support her.
20/05/2018 Brian Wightman
This riding seems unlikely to vote away from 2 term incumbent Lisa Thompson for the PC. Thompson has a good rural background and is a fairly well liked representative. She has an increasing profile within the PC party being selected as the caucus chair during the most recent leadership race. She connects well with rural voters and small business people.
Unless Huron Bruce voters completely abandon Liberal candidate Matheson, this should be a PC hold.
20/05/2018 MF
It's true that the NDP narrowly won Huron with 34% of the vote in 1990, but the dynamics today are very different. The PCs were a very distant third in that election and a lot of right-wing votes went to smaller parties. The Family Coalition Party got about 10% of the vote in Huron in that election. So even if the NDP gets a 1990-type vote share in the province, the likelihood of winning this seat is less than it was then.
17/05/2018 bza
I would move this one into the too close to call category until the final week. With the NDP surging in southwestern Ontario, this is one that the NDP could win if they continued to climb up in the polls. It was one of the surprise wins in the 1990 Ontario election.
Most likely will be a PC hold, but there is potential for an upset.
This may be the shock on election night..
Jan Johnstone is the NDP candidate and the Liberal vote is collapsing and will move to the NDP
13/04/2018 Rural Watcher
If you look at past results in this riding, conservative support seems to be about 40%, plus or minus 5% on either side, which has been enough to win recently.
Greens/others are a non-factor, but will take about 5%, so that leaves 55% to Liberal/NDP split. How they split it determines where the riding goes.
Matheson is a stronger candidate than Schenk was in 2014, who was woefully unprepared for debates and was a ghost in the northern part of the riding. Jan Johnstone is running again, so I don't think NDP support will collapse like it did federally. Unless, there's a drastic collapse by the PCs in the provincial campaign (and let's face it, Doug Ford is probably the guy to do that) I think Thompson should hang on, but this is a riding to watch.
The challenge here will be for Matheson to siphon away enough votes from Johnstone to pull up to Thompson's 40%.
2018-04-1 A.S.
Huron-Bruce did stick it out federally with Paul Steckle; but one must remember that Steckle was anything but a Justin Trudeau/Kathleen Wynne type of Liberal, so it shouldn't be surprising that not only did it shift blue upon Steckle's retirement, it stayed blue in 2015. And if the margin in 2015 was unimpressive, how many winning Tory margins that year in Ontario *were*? Ditto provincially in 2014--speaking of which, it's interesting how that year, the Libs were the dominant opposition in Bruce, while the NDP were more favoured in Huron (and nearly won Goderich). Come to think of it, given EPP's history of bold NDP claims for Huron-Bruce, should we still be allowing for a 'Notley surprise' effect here? It's Southwestern Ontario, after all...
20/03/2018 Stevo
Not sure why everyone is proclaiming this to be such a safe Conservative seat. Sure they will obviously win under present conditions. But this is the rare rural Southern Ontario seat that continued to vote federal Liberal with Paul Steckle post-Reform/PC merger, right up until the 2008 election. The fed Tory 2015 and prov Tory 2014 margins were unimpressive. In a competitive election this would be a slightly-blue-leaning swing seat.
19/03/2018 MF
The number of university graduates really isn't that high in Huron-Bruce (15.4%, vs. 14.5% in neighboring Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - not a dramatic difference). Plus I suspect a lot of people who work in nuclear power plants are pretty right-wing.
Not much to see here really - another safe Conservative seat in rural SW Ontario.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Gotta feel for Don Matheson, putting his hat in the ring vs a Brown-led PCs seemed like a worthwhile punt. Versus a Ford-led PCs is just a nomination to get crushed. The question is will Liberal voters scramble to the NDP and make this a three-way race? Unlikely, really both Liberal and NDP votes willd drop.
09/01/2018 Craig
It is true that this is far from the safest of Conservative seats in Ontario, and they rarely get much above 50%. The bad memories of Walkerton don't really play out here as much as in the GTA though. The fact that there is a reasonable sized population of more educated voters does give the Liberals some life, but that is more than offset by their general rural hatred, especially over wind turbines. Hence the PC's should win easily.
08/01/2018 Rural Watcher
It's really early, but I think this riding will be closer than many think.
Liberals putting Don Matheson out there. Very popular in his area in the north of the riding and well known everywhere else from other activities. Still lots of time for him to get his face out there in Huron County.
Lisa Thompson has been a good MPP, probably in line for a cabinet position if she's re-elected and the P.C.'s form government.
That said, her popular support went down last election and I'm not sure I see it going up substantially, if at all. And if the P.C.'s blow the campaign provincially like they are prone to doing, it may make them vulnerable here. The Bruce Power factor makes this riding a lot less blue than other rural ridings.
I think the Liberals have been smart to steal some NDP policy, and if they can siphon off some of that 20% the NDP got last time around, it puts them right in line to steal the seat.
NDP haven't nominated anyone yet and if they run out a dead horse like they did federally last time, it will hurt them big time. Only way to make the NDP a vote stealer here is if they convince Jan Johnstone or Grant Robertson to run again. There's always going to be a glass ceiling for NDP support in this riding, given the party's criticism of nuclear power over the years. It was Bob Rae's government that got the ball rolling on the Bruce A shutdown, and it will never be forgiven in this Bruce Power riding.
Right now? Too close to call, leaning P.C.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
If the Liberals weren't so hated in rural Ontario this could be competitive. Huron County is fairly conservative but Bruce county with many people employed in Bruce Power (thus university educated) tends to be more favourable to the Liberals as well as in Walkerton there are still very bad memories of the last PC government for obvious reasons. Still with how unpopular Wynne is in rural Ontario, this should be an easy PC hold.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
Barring any unusual local circumstances, any rural riding held by the Tories now will be held by the Tories after the election.

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster