|| Carleton-Mississippi Mills
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
|Trillium is running quite a vigorous campaign here for a minor party. Lots of Conservative minded voters aren't entirely sure about Ford, and the Conservative vote might split quite a bit. Not sure about this one yet.|
|The Conservative split, the distaste for Ford and the complete melting of the Liberal vote make this a NDP gain. It will be one of those one off's that's talked about for years.|
|Despite the urban redistricting, I suspect Fullerton will carry this with around 30-35%. Maclaren will likely hold 15% from the Lanark areas.|
It looks pretty thin for the NDP in Kanata North. It'll be close but I can't see Hansen picking up 30%+ unless the support for Maghnam drops below 15%
|I'm going to suggest, cautiously, that the NDP could possibly maybe pick up this seat. Lots of NDP signs out here in PC areas. Plus, MacLaren and his landowners out in the rural parts of the riding may split the vote just enough for the NDP -- not the Liberals -- to come up the middle. The OLP candidate is a good one, but the vote is collapsing including out here. I'm also involved on a municipal campaign right now and at so many doors we hear the same thing from long-time Liberal and Conservative voters: they won't vote PC because of Ford, Wynne has to go and they like Horwath enough to give her a chance. I think that quite undercurrent, in addition to a likely 15% vote share by MacLaren makes this a possible pick-up for the NDP. I'm not saying definitively it will happen, but right now, in this climate, anything is possible. Federally it's a Liberal riding -- and if those voters want a change, they're likely to head to the orange gate.|
|I think this race is going to be extremely close, and apparently so do the Liberals since they are targeting Fullerton's past tweets. I was actually glad Fullerton won, having met her and believed she was a good candidate, but have since found out she tweeted a literal Islamophobic comment|
|Even with MacLaren running, this riding is an easy PC hold in this political climate.|
The only interesting thing about this race is that with the Liberals at ~20% provincially vs the NDP's ~30%, the Liberals will likely finish in a well-deserved 4th here.
|I think that the chances of MacLaren resulting in a split on the right in a substantial way (which were already, in my opinion, low) have been reduced by Ford's leadership. And while a lot of posters are arguing that Ottawa is not a good fit for Ford, the polls are, at best, split on this. Two post-Ford election polls have been published showing results for Ottawa: one had the Liberals ahead, but the PCs had a major lead in the city in the other. And polls over the past few weeks have pretty consistently shown the PCs around 50% in Eastern Ontario. I strongly believe his seat will go PC.|
|What a strange race. The right vote could very well be divided, and Maclaren might find himself attracting all sorts of unlikely voters.|
It's difficult to imagine him winning though, rather just causing enough confusion within the riding to give the Liberals a real solid shot of winning this thing. I really think it's a Liberal-PC race with enough factors to make this a very interesting contest not easily predicted.
Local polls would be great for this region but I could not find any. Nevertheless, I think the left will mostly float around the Liberal candidate enough that they're going to rise to the top. It really depends on how much the Trillium party is an actual factor. It might be a lot. Jack could even win! Incumbency advantages do matter, after all. It reminds me a lot of Lisa Murkowski in the US 2010 election, and in this case, Jack is actually on the ballot.
|I guess it's a coin-flipper as to whether DoFo's leadership hinders the Tories (ie by robbing them of their Kanata-brainiac electoral base) or helps them (ie by repatriating the populists who might have followed MacLaren into Trillium). And it is worth noting how IIRC in one post-Ford party preference poll, 'other' fell 5 points to 2%--how much of that had been quietly occupied by Trillium, I don't know...|
|Based on all that has happened, this should be a RARE Liberal pickup. There are two things that could happen, and both of them would be beneficial for them:|
1) Jack Maclaren rejoins the PC's and make amends with Doug Ford. They are more in tune with each other ideologically, but they are out of tune with most of the riding after the redistribution. Maclaren's best areas (Mississippi Mills, rural Goulbourn) are gone, replaced by urban growth in Kanata. The highly educated nature means that Doug Ford is a liability compared to Elliott or Mulroney (as with almost all of Ottawa). For that reason, he'd be a bad candidate considering they are already being the 8-ball. They'd be too far behind in Kanata to have a chance to get over the hump in strongly conservative West Carleton, which only has about 1/5 of the population.
2) Jack Maclaren remains with, and runs with Trillium: That would give the PC's a better candidate for Kanata, but they'd still be swimming upstream against the current. Problem is, they wouldn't be able to use the much more conservative West Carleton to get over the top, as the rural vote will likely be split (or even favouring Maclaren). The PC's need to at least perform to a draw in Kanata, which will be very difficult with Doug Ford weighing down on them, if they can't rely on rural voters.
Either way, the Liberals get an unlikely pickup, even if they go down miserably province-wide.
|I'm changing my prediction to too close, not because Trillium could win, but because the Liberals might.|
Brown was always 'right-wing enough' but a new PC leader may not be, and if votes do start going Trillium from PC, they will enable the Liberals to win this riding.
|Probably one of only a handful Liberal pickup opportunities. While Jack MacLaren and the Trillium Party have something to say about that, redistribution also eats away the most conservative parts of the riding - under these boundaries, this seat may have very well gone Liberal in 2011 and 2014. |
Without MacLaren, it gives them a better chance to win more support in Kanata, but there is a caveat. While Jack MacLaren probably will not win (most likely will finish 3rd), his results will be critical. He should find strong support for his Trump-like views in West Carleton (but do they risk electing a Liberal in the process?), and it might be enough to deny the PC's a win. Meanwhile Kanata is more ?blue Liberal? where they don't necessarily support deficit budgets or socialism, but don't support social conservatism or cultural populism.
If the PC's can improve on the federal and 2014 numbers in Kanata enough to both leap over the Liberals AND offset any MacLaren votes in West Carleton, they should win the seat. Otherwise, the Liberals should get a rare pickup.
|I wouldn't predict this one for the PC's yet. Sure, they have a slight chance, but we're going to have to wait and see how their campaign is doing. McLaren maybe a John Ninziata type politician who can win regardless of who he's running for, if not, he'll probably take enough votes from the PC's to allow the Liberals to win. However, if the PC lead is 15+ points, then they will take this riding.|
|The Trillium Party is irrelevant and most Ontarians have never heard of it so Jack McLaren will probably only get around 5% or so. Yes this went Liberal federally, but asides from the 2015 federal election has generally been a reliably safe PC riding although the changing demographics are making this more competitive meaning in 2022 I could see the Liberals having a chance here. Also federally Harper really angered the civil service and provincially that is much less likely to be an issue.|
|The Trillium Party which most have never heard of will be lucky just to get 5% so if the PCs do lose this it will be due to a very bad showing provincially. Until recently this has been a very safe PC riding and while changing demographics make it somewhat more competitive, Liberals are not doing well in the polls and the PCs to date have largely stayed away from controversial ideas which have sunk them in the past thus why they should hold this. But certainly could go Liberal in future elections beyond 2018.|
|Neat logo. Too bad the trillium party does not have a hope of winning here. We've seen provincial politicians who are mavericks join already existing parties before; MB, and AB come to mind, BC being most recent with the DRBC party in 2005. In short, Trillium has no chance of winning, and the only question is if the party can draw enough PC support to allow the Liberals to win.|
So far, there's no sign of even that.
|Note the incumbent is actually Jack MacLaren of the Trillium Party. While he might steal votes from the PCs, I do not think it will be enough to win. Worse thing that can happy is a Liberal wins as a result but I suspect the PCs will hang on.|