Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Kitchener Centre

Prediction Changed
2018-05-25 10:27:00

Constituency Profile










    Kitchener Centre
   Daiene Vernile

   (84.90% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Catherine Fife

   (15.10% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):102433

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16078 40.45%
10018 25.20%
10648 26.79%
2493 6.27%
OTHERS 510 1.28%
Total Transposed 39748

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Kitchener Centre

Total Transposed33105


Total Transposed6643

Federal Election Result (2015):

Raj Saini
Stephen Woodworth **
Susan Cadell
Nicholas Wendler
Slavko Miladinovic
Julian Ichim


05/06/2018 seasaw
This is a bellwether riding and as of today, two days before the vote, pundits are predicting a PC majority. I know it
21/05/2018 MF
The NDP is surging in urban SW Ontario (54% in K-W, London and Windsor according to Abacus) and headed to completely displacing the Liberals. This should easily go NDP.
20/05/2018 The Jackal
With the numbers being what they are in SW Ontario look for the NDP to pick up seats such as this.
19/05/2018 Bza
Could see this one going NDP with the overall trends in southwestern Ontario.
15/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Yes Seasaw. The NDP. Seriously. My previous prediction was not made off of one poll but a trend I have noticed for a very long time and a trend that continues. I only cited one poll for brevity's sake. The trend I see is urban SW Ontario swinging to the NDP and away from the Liberals. How would you explain wins (and subsequent retention) in ridings like Waterloo, London West and Niagara Falls, if their support was concentrated and limited to Windsor and Hamilton? And the polls (yes, plural) agree with me, suggesting the NDP are sitting around 35% (by conservative estimates) and all the way up to 48% in the most recent poll (I find this last value very dubious). So Kitchener going orange is not some pie in the sky fantasy, but looking more and more likely.
Pollara says the NDP is at 30% and this riding is close to Waterloo where the NDP will win not to mention some Fife's former riding is now within KC
29/04/2018 seasaw
@Dr Bear, NDP? Seriously? The good doctor made a prediction based on one poll, other polls released since then paint a totally different picture. Since longtime MPP, Jim Breithaupt retired over 33 years ago, this riding's become bellwether. Also, Dr Bear should bear in mind ( pardon the pun ) that NDP support is concentrated in places like Windsor and London and not here
2018-04-1 A.S.
Keep in mind that the notional NDP figure for 2014 is outsize because KC inherited Catherine Fife's best polls from K-W--but Fife notwithstanding, I agree that electorally speaking, Waterloo Region presently operates (or at least lately operated) more like the westernmost prong of the Lib-centric GTA than like 'Southwestern Ontario'; and Vernile's a perfect emblem of that, and her being in cabinet is an emblem of how the Libs are investing in its staying that way. Actually, don't altogether dismiss that Fife-spiked 2014 NDP figure; the threat really could come from both directions here--including, of course, your usual 'split opposition electing a Tory' scenario. (Or split opposition electing *whomever*--split unfavourability being, of course, in the eye of the beholder.)
08/04/2018 Innocent bystander
Kyle: Mainstreet Polling splits Ontario west of the GTA into Southwestern and South Central Ontario. They haven't posted the exact breakdown between the two yet, but say they will soon.
I think it would be reasonable to assume that South Central includes at least Hamilton-Niagara, Brant, Cambridge, Kitchener-Waterloo and Wellington.
The Tories are still over 50%, but the NDP are only 2 points ahead of the Liberals, instead of 11 as they are in the Southwest.
07/04/2018 Kyle H
Many should consider that Kitchener is not exactly 'Southwestern Ontario.'
It may be in terms of pollster crosstabs, and those numbers do look pretty poor for the Liberals, but in terms of demographics, income levels, even prospects for the future, the region is pretty different from places like Essex and London. We've seen that in recent electoral results as well, in 2014 the Liberals performed far better than they did in the real SW, even making gains that offset what they lost in Windsor and London the previous year.
So to say 'this riding is lost because SW polls suck for Libs' isn't really a keen observation. For sure it's not looking good, but Vernile is an incumbent, a strong candidate, and city itself is pretty Liberal friendly. I wouldn't count Daiene out at all.
03/04/2018 Stephen B
Incumbency is an advantage here. Daiene Vernile has strong name recognition (she was a TV anchor before winning the riding four years ago), whereas the Tory candidate is weak. Daiene defeated the previous Tory MP in 2014, getting a better vote share than the Liberals provincewide. The Liberals don't own this riding by any means, but without strong candidates for the Tories and NDP, they have a big advantage here and are likely to hold it.
02/04/2018 Dr. Bear
I completely agree that no liberal will survive in SW Ontario. However, polls suggest that PC support has not changed since last election, while the NDP has gone up significantly. Seeing that their support is centered in the urban ridings, I'd predict an NDP gain before a PC one.
27/03/2018 Innocent bystander
Saying that people aren't 'fans' of the Liberals is an understatement: A solid majority wants change at Queen's Park, Kathleen Wynne is the most unpopular Premier in the country, and the Liberals are third in the regional polling. Liberal incumbency is not an advantage.
Most disaffected Liberals seem to have broken to the PCs, but it's too soon to count out the NDP, given the close results between the two last election.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
No Liberals will survive in Southwestern Ontario.
06/02/2018 Demarcoa
Liberal hold. Incumbency advantage.
Here's what I'm thinking, especially for this region. The people living here probably aren't *fans* of the Liberal party, but when it comes time to voting many are still going to back their representative. It's like in America. Everyone hates Congress, but likes their local congressional representatives. They know them and have a local attachment to them. And that's probably more than enough to secure a Liberal hold, given the breakdown and history of the region. Unless Liberal voter turnout is catastrophically low (it would have to be lower than 2014 levels).
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Likely the furthest south in Ontario the Liberals have a realistic chance at, but with a large educated population the Liberals should be competitive although the PCs have been historically strong here so too close to call. Leans Liberal all things equal, but PCs are ahead in most polls so would probably be a nail biter if an election were held today.

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