|Amy Fee has outworked all of her competitors combined. She will take this in a close race. |
Fitz will have to go back to his old gig as an oil wrestling promoter.
||Kitchener Guy |
|Solid PC pickup in this new riding, after today's endorsement by left leaning Waterloo Record, and clearly winning the sign war. NDP have never been a factor in either conservative Hespeler or liberal South Kitchener, and are hurt by NDP candidate's controversial promotion of Kitchener women's mud wrestling contests. Liberals would have been a factor without overall campaign collapse.|
|TooCloseToCall has this riding as the one with the largest increase in advance polling turnout, when compared to last election. Interesting to see what effect that has.|
|I am confident in an NDP prediction here. Several polls in the last few days have shown the NDP edging out the PC province wide, and getting close to 50% in SW Ontario. That coupled with name recognition for the candidate and lack of any incumbent, leads me to think this will go orange.|
|There are parts of town where the PCs have more lawn signs, and parts of town where the NDP has more lawn signs. |
The sense I get from just talking to people is that Liberals are abandoning the party in droves. The race is who can scoop up the most here, the PCs or the NDP.
Based on two factors:
- Fitz is actually more well known than I first realized
- there is no Ford nation in this area, if anything there is an unusually strong anti-Ford sense going around
I think the NDP will get a much higher portion of Liberal votes and sneak a win.
|Definitely would change this to TCTC. With the NDP going up in the polls, this riding is turning into a 3 way race, possibly even a two-way race between the NDP and PCs.|
|Now I'm adamant that this should be TCTC. The NDP ARE benefiting from a liberal collapse and PC support is actually in a slight decline. With the polls all showing the NDP solid and growing in SW Ontario, ridings with only a 9 point gap are going to be competitive. There are lots of dissatisfied Liberal voters thinking orange.|
|While there is a generic 'Tory Hespeler vs Liberal Kitchener' factor that played out in the federal election, I'd really think more in terms of Pioneer Park, Chicopee, and the growing outer reaches of Doon as the latent heart of Tory support--or maybe non-NDP support, if we're looking in terms of the NDP being realistically competitive here, which is something I wouldn't take *not* seriously, even if it leaves me with a whiff of deja vu from past futile claims. (But hey: a notional 23% cobbled together from ridings that were, in terms of 2014, uncongenial. I can understand the optimism.)|
|With the new riding carving out Hespeler, Doon, and the Alpine and Vanier communities, a lot of people are calling this riding a blank canvas. |
Some key things to note here, Michael Harris publically announced he isn't running for Kitchener-Conestoga anymore, so it shouldn't be as much of a shock for voters that there will be no incumbent for their (new) riding.
On the flip side, Vanderpool has a very interesting back story, and is the only known figure in this race due to his boxing career, so the obvious media attention should help him here. I think he'll have a significant leg up given the younger population and Conestoga students in this area.
|I am reiterating my earlier TCTC prediction and I'm beginning to think that the NDP may have a better chance winning that I've previously thought. The poll numbers suggest that the PCs are leading but flat from last election, while the NDP are benefiting from Liberal collapse. My back of the envelope calculations put this seat neck to neck between the NDP and PC.|
|Hespeler is the more Conservative-leaning part of this new riding. South Kitchener has a more typically Liberal suburban/urban profile.|
BUT, the Tory candidate is a Catholic school board trustee for Kitchener, whereas the Liberal candidate lives in Cambridge. There is some animosity among residents of Hespeler about being lumped in with Kitchener, and some would out of principle not vote vote a Kitchener resident. The rivalry is still very real.
That's enough to turn this, but the Liberals would have won this last go 'round. I think they will take it this year.
|Fitz is about as much of a star candidate as he will prove campaigner. The NDP vote will evaporate both ways. The PCs might just squeak this one back but it could go either way.|
|Given how close the last provincial election was, I predict that the PC party will win this seat.|
|What I missed: Who the NDP candidate is, a star candidate (former boxer)|
With the Liberals and Tories busy making themselves scandalous, the NDP is primed to sneak into seats across the province, especially seats like this, with a locally popular star carrying their banner.
|Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, PC would likely have picked up this new seat with ease. With the PC in implosion mode, anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP, which makes this a very interesting three way fight.|
|While TCTC is the appropriate call at this point in time; and while I would probably call it for the PCs were I compelled to make a decision; I feel that the NDP can not be discounted in this riding. The NDP have a repository of 23% of the vote and have been able to win similar urban ridings in SW Ontario. If Horwath keeps on being the alternative of choice to the Liberals in the south, this could be picked up by team orange.|
|@Teddy Borogina, I agree with the TCTC, but not Liberal. What you're doing is taking the federal results to predict the provincial results. If you look back to the last 80 years, in 63 of those years federal and provincial governments were ran by different parties. Also, in 2015, Tories were led by Stephen Harper, who was trying to win his 4th election in a row, something that McKenzie King and Pierre Trudeau couldn't do, not only that but there was also Trudeamania 2 going on. Doubt that there's going to be a Wynnemania, but we'll see. This is a new riding and we can't accurately predict till later|
|The transposition tells the story. In the new riding, the Liberals would have taken 36.5% of the vote to 32.1% for the Tories; This riding should be TCTC, or, Liberal|
|Hespeler is quite conservative while Kitchener South is more a bellwether so unless the PCs do something really stupid, I suspect this will be a low hanging fruit for them.|