Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

	CASE, TODD
	EVERAERT, BRIAN
	GREULICH, BRAD
	LI, ANTHONY
	MCNAUGHTON, MONTE
	RADAN, MIKE

Incumbent(s):

	Lambton-Kent-Middlesex    Monte McNaughton    (99.99% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Chatham-Kent-Essex    Rick Nicholls    (0.01% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			105919
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		9136	20.19%
		20514	45.33%
		11969	26.44%
		2072	4.58%
	OTHERS	1570	3.47%
	Total Transposed	45260
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
		9136
		20514
		11969
		2072
	Others	1570
	Total Transposed	45260
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Bev Shipley **
		28300	50.20%
		Ken Filson
		16592	29.40%
		Rex Isaac
		9598	17.00%
		Jim Johnston
		1873	3.30%

	05/06/2018	Rachel 207.61.196.85
This riding will undoubtebly stay PC. McNaughton is like a celebrity and Case has put up a good campaign but he just isn
	04/06/2018	Cal 66.85.12.145
I just want to be on record as saying I think this riding will fall into NDP hands. Mcnaughton has faced a tough campaign and Doug Ford is draging him down and he's up against a well know former Warden. Liberals have never forgiven him for what he did to Maria VanBommel (MPP 2003-2011) and they are lining up to get their pound of flesh.
	03/06/2018	Philip Shaw 23.233.126.220
Mayor Todd Case, a solid candidate for the NDP, which may be enough to swing this largely rural riding Orange. In the last election, the NDP candidate didn't even live into the riding and finished 2nd. The biggest issues as always is agriculture and farm issues, like ethanol, RMP and value added agricultural processing. Roads and Infrastructure and the wind turbines in Chatham Kent big issues too. Monte has a fight on his hands here.
	25/05/2018	KXS 174.112.172.78
With the new polls from EKOS and Forum, this is not a safe PC riding anymore.
	23/05/2018	Christopher L 184.151.37.73
The NDP should be able to put up a big result here - probably in the mid 30s at least, taking big chucks out of a collapsing Liberal vote (which might not break double figures). But provided Monte holds his vote in at least the mid-to-high 40s (which seems pretty likely unless the PC vote starts to collapse), the riding will remain in PCs hands.
	18/05/2018	bza 142.229.115.110
Likely a PC hold despite the NDP doing quite well in the polls in southwestern Ontario. I could see it being close. NDP might be able to get up to 40%, but won't be enough.
	06/05/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Hard to believe now that Monte had to overthrow a Lib incumbent in two tries before getting to where he sits now--hard to believe, too, that it was once considered a federal swing seat, as opposed to a solid Tory seat. The fact that Monte bet on the wrong horse (Caroline Mulroney?!?) means little. Look for the usual/typical result: Wallaceburg and the reserves go NDP, everything else is by and large wall o' Tory. NB: transposed from 1990, this might well have been the strongest Family Coalition seat in Ontario.
	22/03/2018	Call me Cal 66.85.12.152
How is it possible that a career politician, who has never held a real job, lives on his daddy's name and money, who has been running for Premier since he was a teen can be seen as a fit for a blue collar riding. Oh wait he's an extremist on social issues. Unfortunately, Monte likely wins maybe by less but let's not forget the NDP have at some point held every part of this riding and the Liberals will be lucky to get to 10% in this part of Ontario.
	19/03/2018	jeff316 69.165.157.213
The NDP thought they had a secret win here by running the Warwick reeve but really it was never in doubt.
	06/02/2018	Craig 24.213.108.184
This is likely the safest Conservative seat in Southwestern Ontario, but that can be more attributed to McNaughton (and Shipley) being very popular. A mostly blue collar, rural riding, it is economically populist and leans to the conservative side socially overall, which is a deadly combination province-wide (especially in the GTA) but works wonders here. McNaughton falls right in line with the local views but that could be why he didn't run for leadership - he'd win big in the southwest, but the growth is in the GTA and not here. For those reasons, it should be solidly PC, likely with around 60% of the vote. The NDP will likely finish a solid but distant second, far behind McNaughton. (That said, if the seat opens up, they might have a shot if the social conservatives are disillusioned in the future.) The Liberals should be irrelevant here with Wynne so heavily focused on urban policies - in fact, they might be lucky to crack 10%. The only problem - could he say something that hurts the party badly overall? Even if it helps him here.
	30/01/2018	ML 69.77.168.131
Fairly safe PC seat in a primarily rural riding. This riding likely stays blue in June.
	16/12/2017	24.114.66.148
Monte McNaughton will win re-election. He ran for the leadership of the PC Party and has a high profile and will likely be a cabinet minister. He really works hard in the riding. People in Southwestern Ontario don't like Wynne nor do they want the NDP. They will never forget Bob Rae.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This may have once been a Liberal stronghold, but this was back when the Liberals were more conservative and a rural populist party provincially which they are not anymore. Monte McNaughton may be too right wing in many parts of the provinces but not here. The main problem with him is if he says something stupid that costs the PCs votes in the 905 belt, but it won't hurt his chances here. Also this was one of only five ridings where the Tories federally got over 50% in Ontario.
	10/12/2017	True Pragmatist 24.114.49.54
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is a safe PC seat now. Monte McNaughton has a strong network across the riding and works really hard. He has built a coalition of Conservatives and disenfranchised liberals. He won big in 2011 and 2014. Bigger this time.
	10/12/2017	99.228.128.85
Monte McNaughton is very popular in his riding. This is also a very religious and social conservative riding, and votes PC in fairly large margins.