Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2017-12-14 21:34:00

Constituency Profile









    Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
   Randy Hillier

   (79.05% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Carleton-Mississippi Mills
   Jack MacLaren

   (12.59% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Kingston and the Islands
   Sophie Kiwala

   (8.36% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):98409

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

11815 27.98%
19816 46.92%
7678 18.18%
2903 6.87%
OTHERS 18 0.04%
Total Transposed 42229

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington

Total Transposed33395

     Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Total Transposed5561

     Kingston and the Islands

Total Transposed3273

Federal Election Result (2015):

Scott Reid **
Phil Archambault
John Fenik
Anita Payne
Mark Budd


5/28/2018 MK15
Mike, Jeff,
I live in this riding and am voting for Hart, but there's no way he's beating Hillier. Tory Blue runs deep in rural Lanark and Frontenac. Even Perth is pretty conservative. Smiths Falls isn't big enough to swing the riding. And look at the transposed Mississippi Mills vote from 2014... MacLaren had over 50% of the vote there.
26/05/2018 Disraeli1965
The riding redistribution did more damage to PC prospects in Kingston and the Islands than L-F-K. Tory strength in Kingston was always north of the 401.
It's a strong Tory riding - federally and provincially - where Scott Reid and Randy Hillier continually outperform their party's numbers.
Liberal / NDP strength is in small pockets throughout the riding, but the PC vote starts strong and does not tail off until you head south enough to see the 'Welcome to Kingston' sign.
Hart will do respectably, but this one is easily a PC hold.
25/05/2018 Jeff in Carleton Place
With new polls suggesting that Conservative support is collapsing into the NDP, this riding will be worth watching. Hart is a strong candidate. People like him. They don't like Doug Ford and they aren't voting Liberal.
25/05/2018 Mike
People in this riding are sick of Hillier and his antics. There's a good chance Hart will win especially judging by the sheer amount of NDP signs in people's lawns.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
Even if the NDP start surging in the east of Ontario, this riding will easily reelect Hillier. No contest here!
30/04/2018 MK15
Re: A.S., Randy came in first in L&A if you look at the votes transposed to the new riding, whereas the PC Candidate for Kingston ran 3rd, even north of the 401 (in what is now part of Randy's riding).
Looking back at it now though, you're right that the margins there are inconsequential to the Mississippi Mills votes he could be picking up now.
18/04/2018 A.S.
*Even* with the new boundaries?!? The new boundaries actually make things *better* for Randy Hillier, by taking out L&A and providing more Lanark County bang for the buck. Though don't count him out for taking his safety for granted--which I suppose he did in 2014, pushing him down to the low 40s; or in 2007, when he just squeaked in. In 2018, though, I suspect he can afford to do so, even if he (contrary to what many might have expected from him) didn't bet on the Ford horse...
12/03/2018 MK15
With Doug Ford officially the PC Leader, we can now look at riding predictions for the general election, beyond the fog of the PC Leadership fiasco.
I don't see how Hillier loses the LFK riding, even with the new boundaries. It went for Elliott instead of Ford in the leadership, but the ~400 PC members who voted are dwarfed by the larger electorate who are not in any frame of mind to vote for the Wynne Liberals.
Hillier with >50%.
29/01/2018 Teddy Boragina
Prediction: Trillium Party
On very specific circumstances!
Tomorrow (30th of January, 2018) a story will break that Randy Hillier bullied and harassed Goldie Ghamari. This has been all but confirmed by both parties on twitter.
This results in Hillier being kicked from the PC Party
He joins the Trillium party.
He could, and perhaps even would win the seat for them.
However, even then it would be a close race between Hillier and Pulker-Mok the Liberal candidate, but Hillier's win of this riding in 2007 came on his own personal popularity, and not from the base of PC support alone. Hillier can out poll his party here, he is very locally popular, and if, IF he joins with Trillium as a result of the events of tomorrow, he could win the riding.
(Even if he does not, I'd like this projection to still be posted, as, it makes clear my view that this is a Hillier riding, and not a PC riding, or a Liberal riding, or anything of the sort)
2017-12-26 Craig
Randy Hillier drives the urban establishment even within his own party insane, but he is the perfect candidate for this riding. Some may argue he belongs in the Trillium Party instead...but there is no evidence he is crossing the floor.
The Liberals have some support close to Highway 401, although even that part is much more conservative than Kingston proper. Their chances even in a good election for them is minimal though, and requires a split right with a weak NDP. Lanark and northern Frontenac would likely go for Hillier under any banner though, so he probably has the seat as long as he wants it.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Randy Hillier may drive the urban progressives crazy, but he is well liked here where many don't like the urban elitist. Liberals have some strength in Kingston and Frontenac County, but Lanark County where the majority of the population lives is solidly blue.

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster