Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

London West

Prediction Changed
2018-01-29 20:14:00

Constituency Profile











    London West
   Peggy Sattler

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):119090

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

12373 23.67%
15634 29.91%
20999 40.17%
2149 4.11%
OTHERS 1119 2.14%
Total Transposed 52273

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    London West

Total Transposed52273

Federal Election Result (2015):

Kate Young
Ed Holder **
Matthew Rowlinson
Dimitri Lascaris
Jacques Y. Boudreau
Michael Lewis


06/06/2018 prognosticator15
Sattler is an academic establishment-linked spending 'justice warrior' with strong local connections, seen as their own by many Liberals, and unlike in LNC, Liberals will not cause NDP any damage, with Liberal campaign non-existent. It may be closer than some expect, but I do not see potential for Lawton upset win, not because of expected smear campaign that tried to limit him from the start, but because of his libertarian-leaning intellectualism. Until recently, he was able to present a rare worthwhile radio program in the midst of progressivist propaganda. Such scholarly types only advance if they have progressivist views, or else are easily destroyed politically. In the state of dictatorship of big left media and entrenched academic elites, the best right-leaning candidate is an alligator, and by all appearances Lawton is not - a more assertive former MP Ed Holder might have given NDP a better run for the money, but decided not to enter after Patrick Brown's demise. Of the two NDP-held ridings, a likelier PC win is in London-Fanshawe, which is now demographically similar, but with a stronger PC campaign - still unlikely, though.
19/05/2018 The Jackal
With the way the NDP is polling in SW Ontario I would say Peggy Satler is safe here.
5/16/2018 UsedToBeGreen
This is probably the safest NDP seat in the Southwest. Peggy Sattler is well regarded in the riding, and the PCs with Andrew Lawton have gone with a polarizing candidate the the Red Tory voting block in West London will be challenged to get behind. Expect this to be the largest margin of victory in the London area.
10/05/2018 C. H.
With the Andrew Lawton controversy and the NDP picking up steam province-wide (including at the expense of the PCs) and in SWO in particular, I'm re-evaluating my previous prediction to calling this one safely for Sattler.
07/05/2018 OgtheDim
Once the provincial media gets a hold of all the Rebel Media tapes of the PC parachuted in, this is not going to be pretty.
06/05/2018 A.S.
With Tanya Granic Allen gone, Andrew Lawton's assumed the '#1 Tory troll candidate' title--btw/ this and the Liberal implosion, how lucky can Peggy Sattler get? And being the most genteel of London ridings, London West isn't even a 'natural' NDP sort of seat except in 1990-type circumstances; by divine right, it should be Red Tory or 'Chris Bentley' Liberal. Instead, it looks more like a rerun of 2014 in the works--or given the straits the Libs are in, a rerun of the 2013 byelection that elected Sattler in the first place. Though I'll still allow for the PCs given overall provincial polling numbers--yes, even the Andrew Lawton PCs...
25/04/2018 Gone Fishing
Welcome the the most dysfunctional riding association in the PC camp! IF the Tories hold onto their suggested poll leads I think this is a swing riding, With all respect to Peggy Sattler she was a protest vote not winning because of an NDP bias in the area. I believe this riding is one of the wealthier in the city and possibly the province, used to be the case demographically and i doubt it has changed much.
While i am picking the PCs it is not because of the work on the ground, nor the candidate. I have been a member of this riding association for many years but have abandoned it over the way Patrick Brown played out in London West. The candidate who was needling for two years and replaced by appointed candidate Lawton was a saboteur when convenient on Brown but a boot licker before. He is representative of an association that during leadership sent constant unsolicited email that was worse than Kathleen Wynne
05/04/2018 C. H.
The PCs could definitely take this one if they continue to ride high, but considering Sattler's and Horwath's popularity in the area if Ford or his party trips up at all this should comfortably stay in the NDP fold.
29/03/2018 NostradamusJr
I'm predicting a win for incumbent Peggy Sattler. She is extremely well liked across the political spectrum and actually spends her time on issues people care about. Peggy is not your average -SJW- type of NDP member, nor is she a huge socialist-communist follower (My family has speaks to her regularly). She more closely fits her riding than let's say the NDP do.This is London
12/03/2018 MF
Agree with the NDP calls here. Peggy Sattler is a strong MPP and personally popular. She will basically own the 'progressive' vote. Doug Ford as PC leader has further diminished their chances in London West as well, as it's a fairly affluent and highly educated riding.
07/02/2018 R.O.
Former cpc mp Ed Holder has apparently withdrawn from the race for the pc nomination.
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, the PC would have a shot in winning this. With the PC in implosion mode, all anti-government votes will likely consolidate behind the NDP, which make this an easier seat to defend.
02/01/2018 ML
Leaning towards NDP. However, if former MP Ed Holder runs, this could be a very competitive race
18/12/2017 Dr. Bear
I think London West is going to be a safe NDP hold. The PCs are poised to nominate the former CPC MP Ed Holder. While he brings name recognition, it is far more likely that soft Liberal supporters will prefer to have the NDP incumbent hold her seat, rather than risk the PC getting an additional seat. Andrea Horwath and co are quite popular in urban SW Ontario, so I don't see this being in much danger, unless the Liberals suddenly look to form a strong majority. That said, when that very scenario happened in 2014, Peggy Sattler still got 40.4% of the vote (to PC 29.6% and Liberal 23.7%).
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Federally this has been pretty close to a strong bellwether for how Ontario will vote as since 2004 the results have almost been bang on with the Ontario numbers in federal elections. But provincially we have not seen that. Won't go Liberal due to their unpopularity in Southwestern Ontario, but could go either PC or NDP. NDP due to incumbent advantage and implosion of the Liberals, but PCs as this the most affluent of the three London ridings so with the PCs being more moderate they could certainly win here.

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster