Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-27 23:07:00

Constituency Profile









   Hon Indira Naidoo-Harris

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):88065

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13964 43.09%
12171 37.56%
4672 14.42%
1161 3.58%
OTHERS 437 1.35%
Total Transposed 32406

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed32406

Federal Election Result (2015):

Lisa Raitt **
Azim Rizvee
Alex Anabusi
Mini Batra
Chris Jewell


27/05/2018 John
I'd like to know how much drugs the admin of this site does when Milton is TCTC
19/05/2018 KXS
Easy PC pick up despite Parm Gill's questionable ethics.
Liberal incumbent Indira Naidoo Harris is a strong MPP and newly appointed minister, but the Liberal numbers are too low in the 905 and provide wide to be competitive here.
It should be noted that the NDP did win this precursor riding of Halton North back in 1990. But demographics changed and this upper middle class suburban riding is not going to the NDP even if they win a majority.
15/05/2018 MF
The PCs should never have lost outer suburban Milton in the first place. Parm Gill made a wise decision to run in Milton rather than in Brampton.
08/05/2018 jeff316
Jeff316's post below makes no mention of any white trashness; instead, it simply feels that today's Milton has more in common with Mississauga than it does with Brampton, that's all.
22/04/2018 A.S.
Jeff316's post falls prey to the 'Doug Ford = white trash Trumpet bait' fallacy, without due consideration for where Ford Nation drew its inherent *municipal* strength from, i.e. from the sort of suburban multicultural multiethnicity that's increasingly colouring the exploding sprawl of places like Milton--and heck, it's something that's reflected *both* in the present Liberal officeholder *and* in her PC opponent. What's certain is that maybe even *more* so under Ford, the Tories are no longer tethered to the increasingly marginal heart of Old Milton--in terms of Halton Region, it's a post-Chudleigh party for a post-Chudleigh era...
05/04/2018 Milton_Terry
Speaking with many of my neighbors, I don't see how the PC's can't win Milton. The hatred for Kathleen Wynne is significant and unwavering.
With the Mayor and many Councillors being PC members, I am sure they will support Parm Gill.
27/03/2018 Stevo
'Miltonians' today primarily consist of lower-middle-class people priced out of the 416 or inner 905. They overpaid for McMansions out in this far-flung aesthetically-challenged area on the cusp of correcting big time while they look on as privileged Liberal voters downtown watch their glass boxes soar in value. The Ford Tories will win a crushing victory in Milton. No contest.
28/03/2018 PY
This would otherwise be a toss-up had the PC candidate not been Parm Gill, who couldn't keep himself out of trouble during the nomination race here and has had his share of controversy as an MP in the Harper government.
I believe the X-factor here might be those supporters of Halton councillor Mike Cluett (who ended up losing the PC nomination). Will they hold their noses and vote for Gill out of duty to the PC party? Will they seek retribution against Gill by voting strategically against him? Or will they simply stay at home in disgust? They, along with the undecideds, will make this race interesting.
It's not the Milton of yore, though. Liberal hold.
27/03/2018 Demarcoa
I just don't think the Liberals can consolidate enough votes to win here, but incumbency could save them. For now, I lean towards the PCs winning it.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford polls had brutal news for the Liberals in Halton: a net swing to the Tories of over 30 points, compared to the 2014 results.
One Liberal might find a magic formula to survive the wave, but at the moment, its far more likely that all 4 seats go to the PCs.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Anyone who thinks that Miltonians (?) are unreceptive to the Ford populism is just wrong. Easy pick-up.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Five years ago you'd nail Milton as a Doug Ford pick up but today's Miltonians have more in common with Wynne. Liberal hold.
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, I would say PCwould likely win this back with ease. With the PC in implosion mode, Lisa Raitt staying in Ottawa, and Naidoo-Harris getting a huge promotion to one of the most important provincial ministries, I think the Liberal is now back on top here.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
As an outerlying 905 riding, this should be an easy PC pick up unless they mess up badly. It even went Tory federally although to be fair it probably would have gone Liberal had Lisa Raitt not been the federal MP. At the same time Wynne is much less popular than Trudeau and Brown is not nearly as polarizing as Harper was.
10/12/2017 seasaw
This one will be a PC pick up. Ms Naidu-Harris took this riding the last time because her opponent and long time MPP, Ted Chudleigh, after Tim Hudak's announcement of cutting 100,000 jobs, took a three week vacation in the middle of the campaign and was absent. No such luck this time. Even if the Liberals win a landslide, Parm Gill will win this riding

Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster