Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-05-31 00:54:00

Constituency Profile








   Hon Kevin Daniel Flynn

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):119649

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

24717 49.40%
18921 37.81%
3994 7.98%
1887 3.77%
OTHERS 518 1.04%
Total Transposed 50037

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed50037

Federal Election Result (2015):

John Oliver
Terence Young **
Che Marville
David Doel


31/05/2018 MF
Reversing my Liberal call here. It's true Oakville is not very 'Fordian' but the Liberals are just too far behind in the 905 region for them to hang on. It may be one of their 'better' 905 results - but that's not saying much!
29/05/2018 The Hedonist
Another classic bellweather riding, upper middle class, lots of families, detached homes. These Oakville voters swing between Liberal and PC depending on who will win the election, and with the Liberals polling down, the NDP stealing their support... gives way for an easy PC pickup on election night.
29/05/2018 The Jackal
For what it's worth LISPOP has call this for the Conservatives.
5/28/2018 Kevin TO
The NDP are irrelevant in this riding. It will come down to PC and Liberal but I think the PC wave is just too much, even for Flynn.
5/24/2018 Kevin
Interesting reading the Liberal hopeful fiction on this page. With the Liberals tanking in Province-wide polls, they have fallen behind in Oakville too. With that said, this is still a PC-Liberal race; the NDP will come in third despite their rise. There are just too many high-income polls in this riding for a socialist breakthrough.
The millionaire neighbourhoods such as Eastlake and Old Oakville make up less than a quarter of the polls. They are not the make-up of the riding that others suggest. Nonetheless, historical data shows that these areas are dark blue, voting Conservative in every federal and provincial election other than in 2004 when the Tories only won about 6 polls in the riding (but those were mostly all in wealthy southeast Oakville). So there is no evidence to suggest they won't vote for Ford this time.
It comes down to how the other areas in town vote. Since the PC's and NDP are up, and the Liberals down in the 905, Stephen Crawford is going to Queen's Park this time.
23/05/2018 R D
I would be voting for NDP or Green but I also understand Kevin is not too far from those and it would be awful to give a hand to Doug Ford from Oakville. Therefore Liberal is the colour of my vote. Speak up Oakville residents.
22/04/2018 A.S.
The sleeper fact about Oakville is that it's not the uniform affluent ghetto many make it out to be--and that's been the key to Flynn's success--though it's affluent-ghetto enough to give the NDP a history of basement shares (and to excuse ex-NDPer Flynn's party choice); if this were Britain, it'd be a classic pre-Clegg-implosion Tory-Lib Dem marginal out of what once might have been a solid Tory seat. Of course, a lot of the worst-case-scenario indicators are showing that the Wynne Libs might be headed for their own Clegg implosion--we'll see whether in his own seat, Flynn will be more like Clegg in '15 or Clegg in '18...
21/04/2018 ottawa99
Way too early (in my opinion) to call this for the Liberals. This is one of the most PC friendly seats in the GTA, with the party having consistently outperformed their province-wide numbers here in recent provincial and federal elections. The local demographics not being ideal for Ford may change this. Nonetheless, with the party fairly consistently polling in the 40-50% range province-wide and low 40s to mid 50s in the 905, this should at the very least be TCTC.
21/04/2018 seasaw
I read these posters' reference to the well educated riding, it's not like Wynne is kicking butt in that demographic, her approval is still bellow 20% amongst the well educated. Others say that Ford's not an Oakville type of PC, is Wynne an Oakville type Liberal? Answer, not at all. This is a bellwether riding and we need to call it TCTC for now
09/04/2018 Stevo
Oakville has lots of privileged, rich progressives sipping champagne with their pinkies in the air. Which makes Ford Nation a poor fit, to say the least. But if this turns into a Harris-esque 905 wave, not even ritzy Oakville will swithstand the blue tide. Too early to make a firm prediction here.
05/04/2018 C. H.
Flynn's popularity might keep this one in the Liberal fold, but with Wynne's present unpopularity any generic Liberal would easily lose here and so this should probably be regarded as TCTC at the moment.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The post-Ford polls had brutal news for the Liberals in Halton: a net swing to the Tories of over 30 points, compared to the 2014 results.
One Liberal might find a magic formula to survive the wave, but at the moment, its far more likely that all 4 seats go to the PCs.
26/03/2018 Dr.Bear
While I am compelled to call this for the Liberals, I'm going to err on the side of caution and say TCTC. The Liberal incumbent seems to have personal appeal, despite the party. Also this riding is very affluent and reasonably progressive; Ford's populist rhetoric will fall flat. Never the less, this riding does have a Conservative past, and the Liberals are just really stinking up the place right now. Once the campaign begins, things could change. But now...I just am not sure.
23/03/2018 Craig
Despite their poor province-wide numbers, Oakville should remain Liberal. This very affluent riding is also very well educated, and that is a terrible demographic for Doug Ford. It's also a good demographic for Kathleen Wynne, and Flynn is reasonably popular. The fact that the stock market continues to do well helps Wynne with her economic message too, even if that is not seen as a strength elsewhere.
Populism does not fly anywhere in places like this (these kind of places swung hard to Clinton and strongly rejected Brexit), hence it should remain red. Had Elliott or Mulroney won the leadership of the PC's, then I would consider this a likely pickup (even if that closed other doors), but Ford Nation shouldn't find a home here on the QEW.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Flynn is in because Ford is just not Oakville's kind of PC. If he survives a Liberal rout let's just hope he doesn't run for leader - that would be awfully embarassing.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
12/03/2018 MF
Predicting a Liberal victory in Oakville. Kevin Flynn is personally popular in the riding. The NDP vote is minimal (and Flynn himself is a former NDPer), so the Liberals basically own the progressive vote. Plus Doug Ford is too uncouth for the upscale, establishment types that Oakville is full of and will underperform compared to a generic PC leader.
08/02/2018 M. Lunn
Way too early to be calling this for the Liberals. If you look at the polls not much has changed since Brown resigned as this is a bellwether if not lean Tory so unless the Tories are destined to lose they should win this. Until the new leader is in place it is too early to call.
Given the likely swing against the government a 6000 vote plurality is unlikely to be enough of a cushion for this incumbent. Also I think as Flynn is Labour Minister responsible for the War on Business; donations will be pouring into the PC campaign from across the Province. I don't see transit being the issue it was last election.
29/01/2018 JC
Before the Patrick Brown meltdown, PC would likely have picked up this seat. With the PC in implosion mode, Flynn will likely prevail as this is the strongest Liberal seats in Halton and NDP is not a factor here.
18/01/2018 B.S.
For '905' ridings not won by the PC's in 2014, under the new boundaries, Oakville got amongst the highest 'percentage' of Tory votes. Only behind Markham-Unionville and Oak Ridges, but higher than the other Halton ridings that had incumbents. Unlike all other ridings, there was no PC vote collapse between the last two elections either, suggesting that there could even be growth for them here. This will no doubt be a target seat for Patrick Brown.
21/12/2017 Random Voter
Has Kevin Flynn even declared he's running again or not? Regardless, Oakville is up for grabs. While respected yes, his vote percentage has never increased (highest is 49% I believe), which suggests he doesn't have Gary Carr-level popularity here that could maybe withstand a change in tide. The only direction he can go is down, dragged by Kathleen Wynne's sagging poll numbers. Since Oakville won't vote for a unpalatable Leader, I'd favour the PC's this go around. But it's early, so things can always change before June 7th.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
Of the four Halton ridings, this is the only one I think the Liberals have a shot at holding although it will be an uphill battle. Kevin Flynn is a popular MPP, but local candidates count for less in the 905 belt while the Liberals are deeply unpopular provincially and the PCs have by and large avoided doing anything stupid to land them in trouble. So favours PCs now, but if things tighten Liberals still might have a shot.

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