Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Richmond Hill

Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:57:00

Constituency Profile








    Richmond Hill
   Hon Reza Moridi

   (95.91% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Gila Martow

   (4.09% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):108658

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17305 48.16%
12842 35.74%
4055 11.28%
1166 3.25%
OTHERS 567 1.58%
Total Transposed 35936

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Richmond Hill

Total Transposed34500


Total Transposed1436

Federal Election Result (2015):

Majid Jowhari
Michael Parsa
Adam DeVita
Gwendolyn Veenema


25/05/2018 Demarcoa
PCs are likely to win this seat. The liberals don't have much of an advantage here and are getting kind of... desperate.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
I don't see why Richmond Hill is TCTC and Newmarket-Aurora is not. Both have similar vote distributions in 2014 and I would expect the same in 2018. I doubt the presence of Christine Elliott will get people in NWMKT-Aurora will get people out in droves, relative to Richmond Hill. I say both go PC by equal margins.
23/05/2018 BryanB
If signs on private lawns are any indication of support, the Liberal candidate is well in the lead, at least in my area of Richmond Hill (Ward 2 municipally). The NDP has signs on the public boulevards, but I haven't seen any on private property yet. Still, I don't think this makes a Liberal win here inevitable by any means. Too close to call.
21/05/2018 MF
While Moridi may be respected, it's very difficult to see him surviving in this climate. The federal Conservatives got over 40% here during Trudeau's red wave and the NDP have no chance in Richmond Hill. York Region's 'new money' demographic is very Ford-compatible. So Moridi may do well 'considering the circumstances' but that's not going to be enough.
01/05/2018 BryanB
Daisy Wai, the Progressive Conservative candidate, is already campaigning hard, with phone calls and printed flyers arriving at the house before the end of April. Her policies seem vague and even contradictory, but there is bound to be a lot of support for her in the vote. The NDP has never been much of a factor in Richmond Hill, and the Liberal incumbent remains fairly popular, but I think Richmond Hill will be a toss-up this time.
22/04/2018 A.S.
Even if Moridi's well-regarded within caucus, it's hard to see him as invulnerable, particularly given the federal Conservative overperformance that few would have foreseen. Maybe the most critical thing is what started to bear itself out provincially in 2014 and then federally in 2015: the east-of-Bayview affluent Chinese demos which once would have been solid Chretien/Martin Liberal have been trending in a Tory blue direction--and the Tories have an ethnically compatible candidate. Of course, with the Persian diaspora centred upon Yonge, Moridi's no slouch in the 'ethnic compatibility' department, either...
23/02/2018 Globe
This riding is dominated by a very active Persian community. Moridi has been a three-time MPP and two-time cabinet minister and well respected in this riding. The previous federal election is not a good measure; Both candidates were Persian and the Conservative candidate was a well-known activist, and still lost. This riding will remain Liberal unless they completely collapse.
02/02/2018 Dr.Bear
And....they shot themselves in the foot...
Well, truth be told, the few polls that have come out after the whole Brown debacle have shown that voters have not really been swayed much. Almost as if there is a wait and see sentiment. Now depending on who the PC's pick as a leader, that will largely determine who will win this seat. My opinion is that if one of the two lady candidates come out ahead, this will turn blue.
17/12/2017 M. Lunn
Will probably go whichever way the province as a whole votes, but considering the Liberals only won this by 3% last federal election and most polls show the PCs in front, this looks ripe for a PC pickup unless they shoot themselves in the foot.

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