Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:17:44

Constituency Profile


Chapman, Matthew

Malone, Greg

McDonald, Kenneth

Movelle, Lea Mary


Ken McDonald

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



6457.79 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ken McDonald 2352855.90%
Scott Andrews ** 750117.80%
Jeannie Baldwin 607514.40%
Lorraine E. Barnett 467011.10%
Krista Byrne-Puumala 2280.50%
Jennifer McCreath 840.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2000.56%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (73.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. John's East
   (26.97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Rural Newfoundland riding, I think the Liberals hold on here.
07/09/19 A.S.
The Avalon Peninsula *at large* is the traditional base for Tory support in Newfoundland, except that the urban core of that mostly fled federally for Lib/NDP once the right united--what kept Avalon going was Fabian Manning supertargeting and, perhaps, non-urbanity relative to the St. John's ridings. It'd even seem that CPC's given up on bowing to ancestral Toryism, given how they blocked (pre-provincial-leadership) Ches Crosbie from the nomination--instead, the highest-profile opponent would seem to be comic Greg Malone for the Greens, nearly two decades after he nearly won St. John's West for the NDP in a byelection. Under the circumstance, maybe *he* can use the Crosbie family endorsement.
30/05/19 Laurence Putnam
I'm not even so sure about a supposedly good Conservative base in this riding; I would argue that it was much more of a Fabian Manning riding than a Tory one. For this and all the other reasons cited here, I would say there is no question that this is riding returns a Liberal in October.
24/02/19 Sam
This was generally the best seat for the Conservatives in Newfoundland - it was the only one they won in 2011 on the current boundaries. Yet in 2015, Ken MacDonald won easily, and given the by-election result in the neighbouring seat, may not win a majority of votes again, but he is the incumbent and clear favourite to hold on against what has now become more divided opposition.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
If the Conservatives were to win a seat in Newfoundland this would probably be their best chance, but the bad memories of the Harper era (who is loathed in Newfoundland) probably means they still have to wait another election or two before they have a real shot here.

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