Election Prediction Project

Central Nova
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:44

Constituency Profile


Canyon, George

Fraser, Sean

Frazer, Chris

MacDonald, Betsy

Muir, Al

Randle, Barry

Slowik, Michael


Sean Fraser

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9307.83 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sean Fraser 2590958.50%
Fred DeLorey 1141825.80%
Ross Landry 453210.20%
David Hachey 18344.10%
Alexander J. MacKenzie 5701.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 570.15%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Central Nova
   (87.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (7.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (5.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/10/19 JSn
This is a battleground but calling it Con for this reason no one else seems to notice:
Peter MacKay's interest in running for the CPC leadership will ignite every Con left in Nova Scotia to run here to try to help the Cons win Central Nova. Why? Those that WANT MacKay back will want him to have a safe seat for a rookie country singer to step down from when he realizes being an MP isn't for him. Those that DON'T want MacKay back will want a CPC incumbent they hope to convince to stay on, so that MacKay just forgets about coming back.
Either way the Cons in the province are flooding into Central Nova for election day for their last best hope to get, or get rid of, Peter MacKay.
And I predict this will be the only Con seat in NS.
18/10/19 R.O.
Wanted to mention since I sent in original post both Trudeau and Scheer visited this riding when they were in Nova Scotia so a sign the parties are putting some serious effort into this riding in the final days. An indication they feel its close and candidates would benefit from some extra exposure .
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
CPC are running George Canyon here. Good get for them but not good enough. Sean Fraser wins the seat and becomes the first Liberal to win the riding twice in a row.
15/10/19 S.J.
Gonna give this narrowly to the Liberals. It's historically not a Liberal riding, they've only won in '93 and '15. However, there was a MacKay on the ballot for the tories for much of the last 50 years. There is no MacKay this time around, instead a country singer parachuted from Calgary. I don't think this will help the Conservatives any, rural Nova Scotia tends to vote for the candidate ahead of the party and I think Fraser will eke it out for the Liberals.
15/10/19 R.O.
I’m not sure what to make of George Canyon as the cpc candidate here , its also difficult to believe the liberals got 58% of the vote here in 2015. Which was even more votes than they got in the 93 election. although polls for atlantic Canada has consistently shown a closer race this year so the riding is likely much closer than it was in 2015. This riding had been conservative for a long time when Peter Mackay was the mp and most of the provincial seats are pc. So its definitely a more tory friendly part of Nova Scotia when compared to other ridings. although no party leaders have visited the riding yet which seems odd .
28/09/19 JSn
Going out on a limb to call this one Liberal. The 2015 results were a much wider margin than anyone could have anticipated. A last minute shift of candidates to a country & western singer who effectively failed to launch a truly viable music career despite the best possible start? No. Atlantic Canada generally responds far better to long proven career politicians and activists than to celebrities with no prior political record. I don't see a Canyon win.
The most likely seats for Cons in NS are Cumberland-Colchester and West Nova, but the odds vs incumbents in Central Nova and South Shore St. Margarets seem difficult to overcome.
10/09/19 A.S.
What surely helps CPC is that the provincial Pictou ridings went *very* heavily Tory-majority last time; it's a question of how and where that strength carries over federally--in a Trudeau vs Scheer era, the old Central Nova federal-blue pattern is looking a little hoary, and it *may* take more than a country singer to reverse 2015's paradigm shift. And thankfully, Sean Fraser's no Roseanne Skoke (the rogue-Liberal accident of 1993's Chretien landslide). What's *truly* extinct is the notion of the NDP posing a challenge here--the former provincial A-G barely broke into double digits in '15.
01/09/19 Marco Ricci
New polling from Narrative Research for Atlantic Canada and new polling today from Leger both show the Liberals regaining a double digit lead in the Atlantic region. Not as high as 2015, but an improvement from earlier this year. Liberals now have a good lead in Nova Scotia, although we'll have to wait until the election starts to have a clearer picture of how Central Nova will go.
21/08/20 Laurence Putnam
Change in plans - MacKay is out and singer George Canyon is in. I'm unconvinced that Canyon's celebrity in the the country music world will do much to bolster his chances any more than Tina Keeper's acting career bolstered hers, Tom King's radio stardom did anything for his, or any of so many other "star" candidates who got skunked on election nights over the years; but in a naturally Conservative riding with the Tories appearing to have strongly rebounded, particularly in Atlantic Canada where they are now drawing roughly even with the Liberals, this should be one of the first seats to go back to blue.
14/06/19 Craig
Advantage Conservatives right now. At first, I thought the Liberals would hold Central Nova as long as Peter Mackay was not the candidate. However, polls are showing a lead for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. Since this is probably the 2nd best Conservative seat in Nova Scotia, it has to be seen as a strong target for them as Trudeau's support collapses.
That said, things can change on a dime, and the LPC has strong incumbency while even Mackay never won overwhelmingly in what is largely a Red Tory riding where populism hasn't really taken hold. However, if the numbers are right - the CPC should take this back.
02/06/19 seasaw
The Tories are polling significantly higher than 2015, and by the looks of it they're going to win 4-5 Atlantic Canada seats. This will be one.
16/05/19 Laurence Putnam
I've hesitated on this and had I been put on the spot two months ago I would have said this stays Liberal. Now that Liberals are consistently polling at half the level of support they won the Atlantic with last time and with the Conservatives slowly, steadily climbing in Atlantic Canada, this naturally and historically Conservative riding is very much in play and will no doubt be a top target of Tory HQ. While not likely to yield Peter MacKay style numbers, a solid 40-45% win is looking increasingly likely if current trends continue.
19/03/19 Sam
As an initial projection, this is probably going to be a race with lots of varying outcomes. The Liberals have the benefit of incumbency and this is a province which has definitely created improving prospects for them. The high tide of 2015 however is out, and I would expect the Conservatives to have a very strong chance here. Cumberland-Colchester and West Nova are better for them, but on a very good night this and others can be added. Too early to call.
13/03/19 Murphy
Difficult to give a prediction on this riding as the Conservatives and NDP have not announced their candidates and no potential nominees have formally declared. This will be one to watch, especially depending on the Conservative nominee.
At the moment this seat is a toss up but I would give the edge to the Liberals. Although this seat appears to be as Conservative as Cumberland - Colchester next door, much of that was due to high profile MP Peter McKay. After winning 5 elections here, he still only topped over 50% once in the 2011 blue wave. It is interesting that he NEVER attained the 58% Sean Fraser received in 2015. With Sean Fraser as the current incumbent and Peter McKay now gone, the Liberals have the edge in this riding. A 32 point may be too far to overcome for the Conservatives.
05/03/19 Neal
2015 was an anomaly, and i think the Tories will be establishing a beach head in NS again, 2-3 seats, and Central nova will be one of them.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This area is somewhat conservative leaning, but considering it is more of a Red Tory area plus has an incumbent, I think the Liberals will hold this but by a narrower margin. Nonetheless wouldn't be surprised if Peter MacKay someday returns to politics and when that happens, I suspect this will return to its Tory roots.

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