Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:28:49

Constituency Profile


Archer, William

Armstrong, Scott

Blanch, Jason

Duchesne, Larry

Garvey, Stephen J

O'Blenis, Jody

Rushton, Matthew V.

Zann, Lenore


Bill Casey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7905.99 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bill Casey 2952763.70%
Scott Armstrong ** 1225726.50%
Wendy Robinson 26475.70%
Jason Matthew Blanch 16503.60%
Kenneth Jackson 1810.40%
Richard Trueman Plett 700.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3150.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 R.O.
All the political commentators agree its highly unlikely the liberals sweep the east coast like they did in 2015, political insiders such as the hill times have been speculating about this for some time. No one really thinks such an outcome is even remotely possible especially since 6 liberal incumbents aren’t even running for re-election including the long time mp for this riding Bill Casey. And all the polls show a much closer race this year, with the green party doing much better than ever before out east and ndp starting to gain some support back. The question is realistically what seats are the liberals not likely to win a second time ? I think seats like Cumberland Colchester are high on that list. Trudeau also visited the riding twice a sigh they felt there new candidate Lenore Zahn needed some extra help in what is a close race with former mp Scott Armstrong. even if the liberals have a good night out east on Oct 21 no one thinks there going to sweep all of NS this year.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
I know a riding poll took place in this riding that showed the Liberals ahead here but I think the Conservatives win a close 1 in this riding. The last non PC/CPC MP not named Bill Casey to win this seat was Diane Brushett in 1993 and she won then due to vote splitting on the right.
14/10/19 Stevo
Based on polling going into the final week of the campaign, the CPC is poised to win at least 6 seats in Atlantic Canada. 5 of those seats will be in New Brunswick. The remaining CPC Atlantic seat will be right here.
01/10/19 Marco Ricci
According to a preview from Mainstreet on Twitter today, Liberal Lenore Zann is ahead in Cumberland-Colchester, although they haven't released the full numbers yet:
25/09/19 R.O.
Historically conservative riding , no incumbent this year as Bill Casey retired . last time he retired Scott Armstrong got elected in the by election and was mp for a few years. he could be headed back to Ottawa if history repeats itself .
13/09/19 Cumberbatch
Although this is one of the two most right-wing ridings in Nova Scotia, the local CPC candidate Scott Armstrong is not that popular and really only held the riding previously since there was not much headwind against the Conservatives at that time. Also, Scheer does not particularly inspire Conservatives in the right wing of the party.
Add to that a decent PPC candidate and two far-right fringe candidates, and you have a peeling-off of about 4 points of the Conservative base.
I agree that a feminist-socialist Liberal candidate is not optimal in this kind of a riding, but I still give it to Zann by a whisker, since there is no credible NDP in the Maritimes.
10/09/19 A.S.
What Casey and Brison proved was that in 2015, Liberal coalitions could get *exceptionally* grand when you're an ex-Tory. Definitely agree that there's more of a ‘Conservative bedrockiness’ around here than elsewhere in NS, while Zann might be a mixed blessing for the Libs beyond her Truro nucleus. Or, look at it this way; if the Libs hold C-C, it won't be so much Zann winning it as Scheer blowing it. *Which is a possibility*.
07/09/19 The Jackal
While most of Nova Scotia will remain Liberal red this one will go blue. Bill Casey not running here will be a huge factor.
01/09/19 Marco Ricci
Leonore Zann has now won the Liberal nomination, but it's hard to know whether she will win the seat. New polling from Narrative Research for Atlantic Canada and new polling today from Leger both show the Liberals regaining a double digit lead in the Atlantic region. Not as high as 2015, but an improvement from earlier this year. Liberals now have a good lead in Nova Scotia, although we'll have to wait until the election starts to have a clearer picture of how Cumberland-Colchester will vote since this riding does have a Conservative history.
17/06/19 Sam
Have to disagree with those who are saying a Lenore Zann candidacy keeps this red - she may have a small base in Truro but she is no boost to declining Liberal fortunes in the Cumberland/Northern Colchester parts of the riding. The Liberal vote is very soft - a lot of people undoubtedly voted just for Casey, and it was still one of his worse performances. Couple that with the swing to the CPC as well, I don't think an NDP MLA is going to be enough. Not clear whether she'll win the nomination anyway.
I have to disagree. Whilst it's true this looked like Armstrong had it. The Liberals have Lenore Zann running for nomination. If she ends up getting nominated they have a real strong shot at keeping this seat.
10/06/19 Marco Ricci
Longtime NDP MLA Lenore Zann says she will seek the Liberal nomination in an effort to stop Cumberland-Colchester from going Conservative:
09/06/19 Craig
Changing my opinion here. Polls show that the Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada has not just dwindled, it has evaporated completely. While it is possible that may not translate into as many seats as we think (due to a few stronger ridings in New Brunswick), this is definitely the most Conservative-friendly riding in Nova Scotia.
In addition, Bill Casey won't be back and the LPC can't rely on Trudeau alone to carry this like in 2015. For that reason, while the margin shouldn't be huge, Scott Armstrong should be heading back to Parliament, likely in cabinet if the CPC forms government.
17/04/19 Craig
Of all the Nova Scotia seats, this would be the first to flip to the Conservatives. However, while New Brunswick has shown it is willing to enter the fray of right-populism and fall in line with current era conservative agendas, there is no indication yet that it has made it to Nova Scotia. I wouldn't guide provincial results - yet - as the Nova Scotia PC's are much more of the Red Tory type and many of them are closer to the federal Liberals. The Reform/Alliance always got creamed here too.
For that reason, I'd say Cumberland-Colchester is too close to call. Bill Casey isn't running again (if he was, he'd win easily) and Scott Armstrong is. But the nearly 40 point margin from 2015 really strikes me as suspicion. But is this too much of a Red Tory riding to jump on board?
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
It could well be the only riding the Conservatives win in Nova Scotia, one of maybe just 3-5 Conservative gains in all of Atlantic Canada, I suspect. But they should win it.
13/03/19 Murphy
Would agree with other commentators, Scott Armstrong will likely re-take his former position. Bill Casey is popular enough to carry this riding regardless of political party. The Liberal Party is not, especially with their latest dip in the polls. With Casey not running, this naturally Conservative riding will likely flip.
13/03/19 Sam
The Bill Casey factor is gone, so this is definitely the best shot for a Conservative gain in Nova Scotia and with Scott Armstrong already fighting for this seat back, the Liberals chances here have collapsed. The margin last time was big, but Bill Casey could win this under any banner, so expect a big swing to the Conservatives.
I do agree with the previous poster that Scott Armstrong has the edge here for the Conservatives taking back Cumberland - Colchester.It is arguably the most Conservative seat in NS. However I don't believe a reversal of current Liberal fortunes could save Casey considering that Casey is retiring this year and will not even be running in the election on Oct 21. I don't believe the Liberals have nominated their new candidate as of yet.
05/03/19 Neal
Despite Bill Casey's personal popularity, I expect Scott Armstrong to reclaim this traditionally Conservative riding. However a reversal of current Liberal fortunes could save Casey.
That said, Casey has not been prominent in the current Liberal government, so conservatives have the edge.
25/02/19 Dr.Bear
This is a traditional conservative riding and only went Liberal because of Bill Casey and the fresh air of the Justin Trudeau Librals. Casey isn

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