Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:10
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Copley, Kevin

Edmonds, Anthony

Hogg, Sybil

Samson, Darrell

Stickland, Matt


Incumbent:

Darrell Samson

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

86498
85583

34355
33205

644.93 km²
134.1/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Darrell Samson 2316148.00%
Peter Stoffer ** 1661334.40%
Robert Thomas Strickland 718614.90%
Mike Montgomery 13412.80%


2011 Results (redistributed)

1177130.19%
2117454.30%
440911.31%
16364.20%
Other 30.01%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (99.65% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (0.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


17/10/19 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
This was probably more a Peter Stoffer riding than anything else. He's not on the ballot this time. Given the Liberal brand strength out this way Samson should hold on for the Liberals.
13/10/19 Physastr Master
72.182.105.136
It may be that this was a Peter Stoffer riding rather than an NDP one, but with the NDP polling in the low-to-high-20s in the Atlantic provinces, ridings like this are in play
25/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Let's remember that subsequent #MeToo accusations would have hampered a Stoffer re-bid--and on top of that is the provincial NDP losing Sackville-Cobequid to the Tories in a byelection, a seat the party had held since *1984*. Because of all this, things look more likely set to return to a pre-90s Maritime Lib vs PC technical norm; and it'd be more McNeil than Justin backlash that'd threaten Samson--but it's also a more squarely "suburban Halifax" riding than that which first elected Stoffer, which works to the Libs' generic favour these days.
28/06/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
Agree 100% this was a Peter Stoffer riding...not an NDP riding. Of course, there are no longer any NDP seats in Atlantic Canada anyway, and with the possible exception of Jack Harris I would imagine it will stay that way.
11/03/19 COAST TO COAST TO COAST
99.226.134.34
The Liberals won handily over the NDP in 2015. This was against popular MP Peter Stoffer. Now that the Liberals have the incumbent and Stoffer is apparently not running, this should stay with the Liberals this year.
25/02/19 Sam
86.168.58.172
Given the traditional strength of the NDP in the Halifax area, it might be assumed that they have a good shot here, but with the NDP losing its Atlantic Canada base, and the retirement of Peter Stoffer, the 48% Darrell Samson received last time is likely to hold up better than other ridings in the region and translate into a Liberal win, but this is far from certain at this stage. I would still however call it as a Liberal riding this October.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This was more a Peter Stoffer riding than NDP one, so with him not running again, should stay Liberal. Tories are very weak even in the rural parts of the HRM, Cumberland-Colchester is the only Nova Scotia riding I could realistically see them gaining.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster