Election Prediction Project

South Shore-St. Margarets
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:15

Constituency Profile


Foster, Steven

Hepburn, Jessika

Jordan, Bernadette

Matthews, Jason

McMahon, Shawn

Monk, Robert

Perkins, Rick

Schulthies, Kevin

Trappenberg, Thomas


Bernadette Jordan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8474.95 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernadette Jordan 3004556.90%
Richard Clark 1190522.60%
Alex Godbold 888316.80%
Richard Biggar 15342.90%
Trevor Bruhm 2570.50%
Ryan Barry 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Shore-St. Margaret's
   (88.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Halifax West
   (11.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Murphy
Think this goes Liberal in a squeaker, solely based on the fact that Jordan is an incumbent minister, likely within 3 percentage points.
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Historically this is more of a Conservative riding but I think Jordan's cabinet spot will lead her to a win here.
16/10/19 CDH
The most recent poster says Perkins signs outnumber Jordan in Bridgewater. I was there today and saw pretty even numbers. And on the coastline there are no Perkins signs except a few on the road. No one wants them on their property. The radical decrease is in NDP presence, there are as many Green as NDP signs.
Few POC but those voters are closeted. The odds still strongly favour Jordan given the splits.
15/10/19 John MacDonald
If the number of signs is indicative of interest in a candidate, one should note that those of Conservative Rick Perkins significantly outnumber those of Liberal B. Jordan in the Bridgewater area. On Route 10 to the Valley, the spread is at least 10 to 1. What one can surely infer from this advantage is that Rick Perkins has a superior organization that should also be instrumental in getting out his vote. Couple this with the very able and broadly experienced Perkins effectively personalizing his campaign by knocking on thousands of doors in the last year, I believe that he will pull an upset.
03/10/19 Murphy
I agree with the last two posters who said this seems like a tight race. There appears to be substantial support swelling for the Conservative candidate and I would be surprised if this was an easy win for Bernadette Jordan. TCTC at the moment
26/09/19 Gumpfor
I wouldn't be so quick to call this for the Liberals. Yes, I understand the Liberal here is a cabinet minster and the Minster of Rural development but there is 2 major issues that she never addressed as minster. First of all, high speed internet to the rural areas of the riding has not been fixed and this effects the seasonal workers in the riding and the rural part. Secondly, the main industry is lobster fishing. The wharfs and sea wall and raw sewage issues have not been addressed by the minster who is on this riding! A little bit of money came but the big coffers in the riding just sucked up the money and no upgrades to the area has occurred! Also, remember the Liberals have only won twice here in the last 60 years! I would feel safe to call this riding to the Conservatives or at least to this point to close to call not Liberal.
14/09/19 R.O.
Bernadette Jordan is perhaps a high profile liberal mp but this has been a long time pc/conservative riding , its rarely votes liberal . there was as a mainstreet poll that said its tied which no one seems to have posted.
Liberals, Tories deadlocked in N.S. riding held by cabinet minister
By Marco Vigliotti. Published on Sep 5, 2019 4:40pm https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/05/liberals-tories-deadlocked-in-n-s-riding-held-by-cabinet-minister/
10/09/19 A.S.
It had been Nova Scotia's archetypal ‘split left elects Conservatives’ riding ever since Alexa-mania broke in 1997; though Gerald Keddy's Maritime moderation never made it seem like such a tragic big deal--but Justinmania fixed that upon Keddy's retirement (and deep-sixing what some were seeing as low-hanging NDP fruit in the process: the last days of Alexa's fumes). With cabinet status and presumed further NDP attrition on her behalf, Jordan could well be poised to have the best non-Halifax NS Liberal result this cycle--that is, factoring in the PC MLAs running in Cape Breton, or post-Brison attrition in Kings-Hants, and perhaps factoring out St. Margarets as part of Halifax...
28/07/19 seasaw
This was more of a Gerald Keddy riding than a Conservative riding. Though the Conservatives did hold the riding for a long time even before Keddy. With the NDP polling at their 1993 level in the region, I believe most of their support will go to the Liberals. It's going to be a lot closer than the last time, but Liberal hold nonetheless.
02/07/19 MG
Bernadette Jordan is a personable sitting Cabinet Minister. She is unlikely to lose this to Perkins who has no media profile in the region.
Gerald Keddy won split votes by narrow margins, but was perceived by many of his constituents as actually respecting them. For instance, taking the time to explain why he did not oppose equal civil marriage, in an essay in his newsletter.
Conservative politics since both federally & provincially has become so reactionary & angry it has few followers in a region that depends on tourism & whose large employers - like Michelin - are directly involved in green infrastructure projects like energizeBridgewater.ca. The local newspaper editorials & letters read more Green than Con. And this region is terrified of major sea level rise, hurricanes & glacial tsunamis.
Cannabis & support for rural broadband are the issues on which Liberals delivered, with the notable exception of unlimited wireless plans, the only area of actual federal jurisdiction.
Native & electoral issues where the Liberals dropped the ball, are of interest mostly to hardcore NDP & Green voters. The NDP have yet to choose a candidate. The Greens nominated their provincial leader, Thomas Trappenberg, who is a paper candidate essentially. Neither should do as well as Alex Godbold did in 2015.
15/05/19 Craig
I'd definitely give the Liberals the upper hand here still. Sure, they have dropped significantly in the polls in Atlantic Canada, but we have to remember a couple things. Gerald Keddy never won by very much, and he was a very Red Tory who would probably fit better in today's Liberals. It's likely the Conservative ceiling is in the low to mid-30s as a result. The NDP have had solid support here too but it collapsed in 2015.
For those reasons, Bernadette Jordan should feel at least fairly confident about her chances of a second term. Once the campaign begins, likely issues of immigration and the environment will likely swing this seat into the red column more solidly too. Her biggest danger might be if the Greens can rise or the NDP can break out once again, since it would take a strong vote split to give the CPC any chance.
01/05/19 Sam
As with a few other ridings, I recognise the state of play has changed since the beginning of the year, and I'll now put it in play.
30/03/19 Murphy
I'm placing this as TCTC for now, but it is trending favourably towards the Conservatives, along with Atlantic Canada as a whole. Recent polls indicate the Conservatives lead the Liberals in the region, which should help them in bellwether ridings such as this one. Although, this riding is more Liberal-friendly since 2011 than in the past, it is likely a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives, but if the Liberals continue to bleed support, they could be in for a tight race.
South Shore-St. Margarets is a unique riding in Nova Scotia. It is the first on the list of rural ridings in NS where in the past the Conservatives have benefited from the Liberal-NDP vote split. The previous Conservative MP who held the seat from 1997-2015 only averaged 38% over his 6 elections. Now that the left has been consolidating around the Liberals in NS, Cabinet Minister Bernadette Jordan should have no problem retaining her seat.
02/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives have increased opportunities in Nova Scotia but this isn't one of them. It was a surprise that they won this riding in the last few elections, and now that the centre/centre-left vote has consolidated around the incumbent Liberal MP, who is a Cabinet Minister, it makes the chances of a Conservative gain very low.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Gerald Keddy from 1997 to 2011 never won this by very much and he benefitted from a much stronger NDP to split the left wing vote. So while I could see the Tories rebounding to the mid to upper 30s if things go in their favour, they likely won't have the splits they did in the past.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster