Election Prediction Project

West Nova
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:29:22

Constituency Profile


Cook, Gloria Jane

d'Entremont, Chris

Deveau, Jason

Dubois, Matthew

Green, Judy N


Colin Fraser

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8885.44 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Colin Fraser 2877563.00%
Arnold LeBlanc 1191626.10%
Greg Foster 30846.80%
Clark Walton 19044.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   West Nova
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Yeah, a Liberal prediction here is fool hardy. The Liberals could sweep every other seat in the province but they have this 1 in the bag IMO. D'entremont's a minister if Scheer becomes Prime Minister.
16/10/19 Murphy
Still calling this for the Conservatives. The popularity of the local Conservative candidate seems to outweigh the unpopularity of Scheer. Also, Trudeau is very unpopular in the area, which definitely hurts the Liberal candidate. Also, the increasing popularity of the NDP nationwide will likely cause a few percentage point loss from Liberal voters moving left. This riding will likely be an outlier, despite any swing in the polls, Chris d'Entremont is likely heading for victory.
15/10/19 R.O.
Prediction seems to be based on 2015 result and polls showing the liberals ahead in atlantic Canada although by smaller margins than last election. But I think Chris D’entremont can still pull this one off. First off there is no liberal incumbent and new liberal candidate Jason Deveau is not high profile. When compared to the cpc candidate who is a long serving member of the Nova Scotia legislature. The riding has a history of swinging between liberal and cpc and past results don’t mean much in terms of future results here. if we look back in 93 it went strongly liberal only to fall to the pc party in 97 election, same for 2011 when it went cpc by a large margin only to go liberal in 2015 by an even bigger margin. The Peoples party candidate for this riding , Chad Hudson dropped out before the deadline so there is no Peoples candidate on the ballot which likely helps the cpc here. also none of the political commentators are predicting a liberal sweep out east like 2015 everyone agrees it won’t happen again. Especially difficult in Nova Scotia where there is 5 ridings without an incumbent this year.
30/09/19 JSn
This shifts a bit more Con with the PPC candidate withdrawing over violence in Ontario, racism and a general failure of Bernier to respect science or civility, just letting nutcases write platform.
However the general taint on the PPC will not help Conservatives much, it just means that in this riding, the worst elements back d'Entremont. That won't help him just as it didn't help PPC.
28/09/19 JR12
I think Chris has the advantage here. Seems to have more signs throughout the riding and is well-known. Plus his experience in provincial cabinet may translate to voters hoping he won't be another backbencher should the Tories form government.
It won't be a 37 point blowout like 2015, but, Scheer is not offering anything good for West Nova, while the provincial & federal programs to support agriculture & the high tech economy (broadband) have been well received. A unified Liberal representation has some advantages, and while d'Entremont will make this closer, he can't offer traction on what this region knows it needs
11/09/19 R.O.
Christopher D’entremont has a good chance here , cpc did poorly in 2015 but has won the riding in the past as it’s a riding that swings between liberals and conservatives.
09/09/19 A.S.
Since Scheer on his own isn't necessarily the sort to sway deep Maritimers, the CPC strategy in NS seems to be to *heavily* piggyback off the notion of the provincial PCs as government-in-waiting (hey, it worked for the NDP in BC and Sask in 1988)--thus, 3 MLAs as contenders, among whom d'Entremont's got the easiest path available, particularly as the Acadian element lends a bit of a ‘New Brunswick’ two-solitudes dynamic to West Nova. But whomever's the winner, Colin Fraser's decision to retire is almost deja vu for the days when the seat saw a continuous string of one-term-at-a-time incumbencies from its creation in 1968 to 2000 (then Robert Thibeault served 3 straight terms for the Libs, followed by Greg Kerr's 2 for the Cons)
13/03/19 Sam
This is going to be hotly contested. Due to the strength of the Liberals last time, they should not be ruled out, but the Conservatives have a huge chance in taking this with Chris d'Entremont and the lack of incumbency. They are properly competing in the Atlantics so this is up for grabs.
Of the 11 seats in NS there are only 5 that are generally winnable for the Conservatives. West Nova is one of them but it is arguably the most vulnerable for them. Over the last 8 elections, the Conservatives have only averaged 34% here. Even though the Liberals don't have an incumbent running, they should have no problem winning West Nova when there was a 37% point spread in 2015.
08/03/19 Murphy
Still very early, but I anticipate this riding going Conservative, in main part due to the strength of their likely nominee and long-time provincial MLA, Chris d'Entremont. Several potential challengers in the Liberal nomination process, none of which have as much star power as d'Entremont. The only well-known Liberal challenger, Yarmouth mayor, Pam Mood, seems unpopular in the Yarmouth area due to cutbacks in fire dispatch service and the arts centre fiasco.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
This maybe an open seat, but generally tends to be more favourable to the Liberals than other mainland Rural Nova Scotia ridings. Stephen McNeil comes from this area and it went solidly Liberal provincially despite being a much closer race so if the Tories start getting competitive in Atlantic Canada I may change my prediction, but for now Liberal hold.

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