Election Prediction Project

Saint John-Rothesay
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:31:21

Constituency Profile


Barnett, Neville

Cormier, Armand

Jamieson, Stuart

Long, Wayne

McAllister, Ann

Salesse, Adam J. C.

Weston, Rodney


Wayne Long

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



391.02 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Wayne Long 2063448.80%
Rodney Weston ** 1291530.50%
AJ Griffin 741117.50%
Sharon Murphy 13213.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2880.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saint John
   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fundy Royal
   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
Going to be a close riding on Monday. I think that both of the main parties will be watching this 1. The seat actually was 1 of 2 to elect a PC in 1993 but that was because of candidate Elsie Wayne. While the CPC candidate is a former MLA and 2-term MP I think the Liberal incumbent's maverick attributes will get him a close win here.
15/10/19 R.O.
This riding has typically swung between the liberals and conservatives for some time. So it would seem to be a race between liberal incumbent Wayne Long and Rodney Weston a former cpc mp who won the riding in 2008 and 2011 elections. Its harder to predict how the smaller parties do here , greens will likely do better than past results and peoples party have never run a candidate before.
27/09/19 JSn
Another candidacy wholly rooted in Harper era Tar Sands promises. The project is dead but Higgs, Scheer, Bragdon, Williamson & Moore just lie it back into existence.
SW NB either falls for this or it doesn't. A renewed war with natives will change the politics of this region the way it did in Kent County. The status quo preserving vote here is Liberal, a Green vs Con proxy war fought by Irving vs natives, is a recipe for radical change in NB.
I predict all three Cons win or all three lose
16/09/19 Charles F-M
This riding is starting to get interesting. With long time fairly popular Liberal Stewart Jamison entering the race as an independent candidate, I think this will eat away at some of incumbent Wayne Long’s margin. Not enough however to lose the riding. The conservatives are running a very weak candidate that has a backbencher yes man record from the Harper years. The PPC are running a candidate when he ran provincially, wasn’t on the ballot for not filling out proper paperwork.
15/09/19 JSn
Collapse of NB NDP only helps Wayne Long, though more votes will shift Green than Liberal due to pro-pipeline Long.
The Elsie Wayne days are long gone, hate cultists screeching abuse at gays aren't coming back. The pipeline backers are an equally doomed crowd, but Long opportunistically panders to them. In a low literacy riding, that's what works, sadly.
11/09/19 A.S.
While there is a better-than-average ‘natural’ Tory blue inclination here, always remember that Elsie Wayne in 1993 was an exceptional case--demonstrated by how the seat flipped Liberal upon Elsie's retirement. And while we're looking at yet another NB rematch, remember that when it comes to the Liberals in 2019, urbanity is their friend; and this is pretty well an urban seat, which is why the only PC hold in NB in '93 isn't in the top CPC 3 in '19. And, I suppose, Saint John has a way with mavericks named ‘Wayne’, whether as given name or surname...
05/04/19 Craig
Naturally, the Saint John area tends to lean conservative, except in the core of the city. That said, the best polls are in surrounding ridings, while Wayne Long has definitely made himself known and he has gone against the party in the SNC-Lavalin scandal (plus he iss pro-pipeline). That should help insulate himself somewhat. As long as he is the Liberal candidate, he should be fine.
I'd add one potential wild card. What happens if he leaves the caucus and sits as an independent? If the scandal continues, I would consider that a reasonable possible. He might be able to take some Conservative votes with him and win as an independent, but are there enough natural Liberal votes to potentially create a vote split?
03/04/19 Charles Frees-Melvin
Saint John is a riding with a long history of voting for a person over party (ie Elsie Wayne). Wayne has a long entrenched history in the community and has a track record of choosing Saint John-Rothesay over party when it is the right thing to do. Saint John-Rothesay is very unlikely to change regardless of what happens nationally.
31/03/19 Sam
I somehow agree with the two previous posters despite them having wildly different projections. Wayne Long got a good victory last time and has been independently minded, that will sonner help him than hinder him. But New Brunswick is a province that should see some PC gains, these Liberal waves haven't held up before, and if the election were to be held now, I suspect this would be one of them. Things can change, but a PC gain should still be very possible in October.
31/03/19 Murphy
Currently calling this for the Conservatives. The Liberal vote in Atlantic Canada seems to be collapsing, and even a small blip on the radar hurts the Liberals in New Brunswick.
05/03/19 Neal
This riding, one of two that stayed Conservative in the 1993 deluge should return to the fold whether or not the candidate is a Conservative, or whether Liberal incumbent Wayne Long crosses the floor as some rumours have it.
26/02/19 Stevo
Wayne Long has established himself as a maverick MP. His profile has increased with the SNC-Lavalin scandal as he remains one of the few Liberal MPs to join the Opposition in calling for an investigation into the matter. He has also been a firm proponent of Energy East, the pipeline killed by the Liberal government. Should be enough to keep him safe from Conservative attacks that he isn't adequately fighting for his region's interests. I think he wins reelection in a close race.

Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster