Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:34:55

Constituency Profile


Beaudet, Simon-Pierre

Bédard, Alicia

Bujold, Antoine

Clarke, Alupa

Elhak, Dalila

Moreau, Claude

Vignola, Julie


Alupa Clarke

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33.44 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alupa Clarke 1546130.60%
Raymond Côté ** 1288125.50%
Antoine Bujold 1285425.40%
Doni Berberi 746714.80%
Dalila Elhak 12202.40%
Francis Bedard 4230.80%
Claude Moreau 1280.30%
Bladimir Laborit 1240.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2210.46%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

20/10/19 GillesB02
I wouldn't call this a Bloc pick up. A CPC hold is more likely since the left vote will be divided between the LPC and BQ, and I suspect the NDP vote will be higher than predicted. That will help the CPC to win just like in the last election. The CPC votes will most likely not move. The BQ vote is to exagerated in the region.
19/10/19 J.F. Breton
Si le Bloc peut remporter une circonscription dans la Capitale-Nationale, c'est Beauport-Limoilou, avant même Québec étant donné la présence d'un ministre libéral sortant. Le lutte a été serrée la dernière fois, ce sera de même cette fois-ci.
19/10/19 GillesB02
I still think this will stay conservative. The CPC vote is strong while the left-wing votes will split between LPC and BQ, and I am not convinced about CPC votes transferring to the BQ, it just won't happen. I expect a 2015 like result, with the CPC winning by 5% or so.
18/10/19 Tony Ducey
I think the Liberals come up the middle and win this. The Bloc surge will play a part in that, the CPC are the incumbents here so I expect the 3 main parties (Liberal, CPC and BQ) to all get 30% here.
18/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
One of the reasons that I think this will fall to the BQ rather than stay Conservative is that Gagnon in the Quebec riding will boost the results of the nobody in Limoilou-Beauport combined with a switch from soft nationalists to the BQ (from the NDP and Cons). Then again, Clarke and Bujold are just as much nobodys as Vignola.
It is going to be close. I saw a big Gagnon sign down on the ground at the corner of Hamel and Marie-de-l'Incarnation tonight. It might be a sign but I doubt it.
17/10/19 Kaldaces
Now that the Liberals are in danger, the CPC has a new challenger in the Bloc. Will it be enough to take this riding from the CPC? Unlikely. The CPC vote is strong where it counts, which means in the upper part of the riding. CPC hold.
16/10/19 R.O.
Alupa Clarke was first elected in 2015, although this riding had went cpc in 2006 and 2008 elections. Its typically always been a close race. The liberals , bloc and ndp have had some good results here , it went ndp in 2011 and was last a bloc riding in 2004. I say Alupa keeps it by a small margin although its one of those ridings that will likely be very close on election day.
14/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
One of the problems with arguing that in '15 or in '11 X happened is that every election is different. The CPC won seats in '15 with perfect splits (as did the Liberals). If the BQ is resurgent it is cutting into both the NDP and CPC vote as it sucks back soft sovereigntist voters.
Remember that in 2018 QS a sovereigntist party won two seats in the Québec City area by targeting them. Also, I donèt believe either Sylvie nor Alupa will crack 33% of the vote in this election nor will Duclos, so that is the magic number for the BQ to reach to take those three seats. After that, they will be targeting Ste-Foy and Charlesbourg. The CPC vote is very soft in Québec City.
13/10/19 Eddie E.
l would say both Beauport ridings still lean Con, but if the BQ keep up their momentum they could become ‘high hanging fruit’. For the BQ to win these seats they will have to be trending towards 35-40 seats, which lsn't entirely out of the question.
12/10/19 GillesB02
Now that the LPC are falling in QC, I think it is safe to assume that the CPC incumbent is pretty much guaranteed to win this seat. Remember that the CPC won 12 seats with 16% of the vote in '15. Their vote is concentrated in about 20 seats in the province. I really do not feel a BQ surge in the region. I even expect a CPC sweep in the region because of the divided vote between the LPC and the BQ.
11/10/19 QuebecCityOliver
I think the BQ will either win this or cause the LPC to win it. I was not impressed by Scheer tonight in the debate and I can almost feel my neighbours switching their vote from the CPC to the BQ.
I suspect that Beauport-Charlevoix is also at risk for the CPC.
01/10/19 J.F. Breton
Very close race in this riding, between Liberals and Conservatives. Mainstreet Poll:
- Conservatives (32%)
- Liberals (30%)
- Bloc (20%)
- NDP (6%)
- Greens (7%)
- PPC (3%)
Source: https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/elections-2019/sondage-mainstreet-chaude-lutte-dans-beauport-limoilou-65db07b3f57f4cb35618d687413f8b5f
24/09/19 QuebecCityOliver
Given that it is my riding, too I feel the desire to respond especially on this one (and Quebec because I live right next to that riding).
Technically, we have two MNAs, one for the Limoilou part and one for the Beauport part. The reality is that most people who live there do not go to Lévis that often so it is not a big issue in the riding. Gagnon running in Quebec seems to have boosted BQ support and we can expect some of that support to bleed into this riding. The question is are BQ-CPC supports a big block. I stand by my point the CPC support in this riding has never broken 40%, it won't this time either. And thus it is vulnerable to any other part that can get over 30% of the vote.
18/09/19 GillesB02
‘I think you know almost nothing about the issues in this riding. The third link is not a big issue and even if it were the local MNA is against it.’
I live in this riding. All MNAs except two are in favor of a new bridge, no matter what the QS MNA thinks of it. It won’t hurt the votes by any means, the people against the project weren’t going to vote CPC anyway. I doubt that the 2015 NDP votes will all go to the Liberals. Most will go back to the BQ and some to the Greens and LPC. The Cons are up from the last election and it should be enough for them to keep this. As for the PPC, most people predicted a split in the right-wing votes when Bernier decided to quit the CPC. One year later, not much changed. It was only noise, and Bernier being in the debate won’t change much either, and I doubt it will affect the results in this riding.
No need to reply every time someone predicts a CPC hold in one riding because you don’t agree with them.
18/09/19 QuebecCityOliver
GillesB02 - I think you know almost nothing about the issues in this riding. The third link is not a big issue and even if it were the local MNA is against it. Ironically, supporting that should weaken CPC support. It is not a big issue because the people here don't get stuck in a traffic jam on the current bridges that lasts from 7 a.m. to past 9 a.m. going north because we live on the North shore.
Can the Greens realistically take 20% of the vote. No. Thus the split between the NDP and LPC won't exist this time. Logically is you want an alternative to the CPC you have to vote Liberal. Also, we can now expect the PPC to get more votes which should hurt the CPC.
15/09/19 GillesB02
The Conservatives have the edge here. Especially more so since they made their position clear about a new bridge in the eastern portion, while the Liberals seem most likely against it. This is a pretty big issue in this riding and could likely decide the outcome during election day. Also a possible vote splitting on the left due to the rising support of the Green party. They might not win any seats, but they could eat into liberal supports, and the southern portion of this riding is the perfect electorate for the Greens. This won't be the Cons' best seat, but they should manage to keep this without problem.
13/09/19 QuebecCityOliver
The assumption that CAQ voters are CPC voters is seriously flawed. Also, Jean Lesage was held by a provincial Liberal up until the last election as was Montmorency in the 2014 election which includes most of the Beauport part of this riding. But either riding can be won by a non-CPC party because the CPC win with about 33% of the vote. All one party has to do (as the NDP showed in 2015) is get 38-40% of the non-CPC vote and you can sweep the CPC out of Quebec City proper.
CAQ get more support because they pick up ex-PQ voters that the CPC generally don't get.
07/09/19 A.S.
So, what's the matter with acknowledging that Limoilou is progressive? It may only be part of the riding, but it's a not insubstantial part, and some of its ‘tendency’ carries on into inner Beauport as well--it's only beyond the Felix-Leclerc that deep suburban Conservative really sets in. And also, some of this ‘reading’ of the riding is projecting too much of a provincial CAQ vs QS dynamic into the presumed CPC vs LPC dynamic--though I do agree that simply being there as an incumbent gives Clarke one up over the competition; but this does cast more of an ‘urban seat’ aura than anything else the Cons presently hold in Quebec, so while it may *seem* that the Libs are preoccupied with keeping the two they already locally hold, don't gloat too much or it'll be three.
30/07/20 GillesB02
I know that there's a QS incumbent in this riding, but it's federal equivalent creeps into suburbia Qcity which is ground zero for Conservatives and a no-go for anything that's not CPC/PPC. Note that QS won by some hundred votes, not exactly the triumph that many here seem to believe. Also, the CPC are up in the polls in the province while the Liberals seem to be back where they left in 2015. I'm convinced that the LPC are more worried about their 2 seats downtown than trying to win this riding. 23% for the CPC in the province may not seem that high, but that's enough to make Eastern Quebec a CPC-blue zone. Right now 338Canada shows this riding as CPC leaning with the LPC having some grounds, but in reality the Limoilou part won't be enough to overtake the CPC votes in the suburbia part. The conservatives may not win this as easily as a riding like Lévis, but I don't see this riding changing color anytime soon.
27/07/19 QuebecCityOliver
One of the reasons people say this is a progressive riding is that QS (Sol Zanetti) won the equivalent rising in 2018.
Also, mentioning that the CPC won in 2008 is like saying the Bloc won most seats in the province in 2006. Ancient history at this point.
Why the Liberals? Because I see a continuation of the NDP vote bleeding to the Liberals. They don't need a lot to take this seat from the CPC.
28/04/19 Sam
Not sure where the aforementioned idea that this is some progressive stronghold came from - Sylvie Boucher won here twice, holding on in 2008 while her fellow Quebec City colleague Luc Harvey lost to the Bloc. This is probably more vulnerable and more progressive than other Conservative ridings, granted, although it isn't solely QS (Jean-Lesage is about half the riding and that wasn't a big win for QS, the PLQ and CAQ did well enough here and a substantial proportion of them will go Conservative.) There's no question that the Liberals should come at least second place. But with the Conservatives doing good in Quebec, they'll hold up here, and should win this. The Liberals are supposed to be having a tough time holding the two they hold here (something I think they will succeed in doing) and I doubt they'll pour resources into winning this. Tough one, but I think most of the arguments for the Conservative call stand.
06/04/19 Legolas
This could be one of the few seats the Conservatives won in 2015 which they could lose in the province, although I still think they will gain seats in Quebec overall. Clarke did not win by much and the NDP vote has collapsed in the province, which will likely go to the Liberals and Bloc. Although the riding (especially in the Limoilou district) has a more trendy 'Zennial' population growing which could help the NDP a little bit and hold the vote a little better than the rest of the region, as seen by the QS winning Limoilou provincially.
25/02/19 Dr. Bear
This riding went Conservative in 2015 because of a vote split between the Liberals and NDP. While many other Quebec City ridings will safely go CPC, this one will side with whichever progressive party is most popular in Quebec. Prior to 2011, that was the BQ. In 2011 that was the NDP. Currently that appears to be the Liberals.

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