|I really do not see this riding turning to the Bloc at all. Maybe the BQ vote is up compared to last time, but not enough to beat the CPC incumbent imo. The CPC vote is strong where it counts, and I expect those voters to go out en masse on election day, can't say the same about the BQ. CPC win.|
|As of Thursday night the BQ upward trend has not levelled off and the CPC continues to slide. Sylvie is most certainly NOT safe.|
|Looking at the totals Boucher won in 2015 I can't see her winning here on Monday. I think the Bloc surge will reach this riding as well.|
|Maybe the Bloc is up, but not enough to be a treat for the CPC. The CPC lost province-wide didn't really affect the vote here. CPC hold.|
|Granted, until the surge, which isn't entirely easy to pinpoint, this seat wasn't in play. But a lot of the Bloc gains are fuelled by declines in the CPC vote, and with this containing some traditionally strong Bloc areas in the north of the riding, away from Beauport, a Bloc win is certainly on the table. If I had to pick one, I would still stick with Boucher, who has not been a bad MP - but the Bloc are the main challengers here, and it was surprising how poorly they did last time. If they're surging though, they can rebuild what they had here more easily than elsewhere.|
|If the BQ has peaked and the CPC stop their bleeding, then Sylvia will be safe.|
This is exactly what is happening. There isn't any momentum for the Bloc in Central Québec, at all. CPC hold.
|Another seat where current CPC misfortunes in Quebec could result in a surprise turnover. Historically the BQ were strong in these parts and the BQ is seeing a resurgence. I'm going to be watching the polls over the next week. If the CPC continue to fall and the BQ continue to rise, then this seat is in play. If the BQ has peaked and the CPC stop their bleeding, then Sylvia will be safe.|
|This will be one to watch next Monday. Will the Liberal vote keep the BQ out or will the BQ vote simply be higher than the CPC's 30%ish support. |
A difficult riding because of its size and not really being a Quèbec City riding.
This election, to me, seems redolent of 2011 with the Orange wave/crush being replaced with the light blue wave/crush.
|The NDP votes may not all go to the CPC, but they aren't guaranteed to go Liberal either. Several riding polls have shown that the NDP collapse doesn't necessarily benefit the Liberals, especially outside of Montreal. My take is the NDP votes will be scattered between all parties. With the CPC being up in the polls, there isn't any danger that this riding along with Beauport-Limoilou change color.|
|The idea that this is shoe in for Sylvie is overblown. She won with 33% and is just as vulnerable as Alupa to a Liberal surge. There are a lot of NDP votes still to be redistributed and they are likely not going to the CPC.|
|Elsewhere in Canada, the pattern might be that of rural areas being more Conservative than the urban parts; here in 2015 it was the reverse--the Charlevoix region was overwhelmingly Liberal, but drawing in from Beaupre things got increasingly Conservative (and unsurprisingly, also drawing into pre-2011 Sylvie Boucher territory). Such is Greater Quebec--and momentum + incumbency favours Boucher. (Incidentally, this was the only case where a 2011 Orange Crusher finished *fourth* for the party in 2015--though a sort of natural overperformance for the Bloc helped it be so.)|
|Since Beauport was added to the seat in 2015 after redistribution this seat has become a good one for the Conservatives. Boucher is safe.|
|As with the other suburban Quebec City seats, the Conservatives won them by decent margins in 2015 and there is no way they are losing them while polling even better for this election.|
|The Conservatives have been doing well in the North of Quebec, and with a moderate incumbent like Sylvie Boucher, it's hard to see the Liberals or Bloc overtaking her; they are too far behind.|
|Easy gain for PCC in Quebec City area. Sylvie Boucher will easily have the support of the CAQ and Quebec 21 members. Same DNA.|