Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:43:02

Constituency Profile


Balatsko, Stepan

Blais-Leduc, Chinook

Dandenault, Christine

Fortin, JP

Marchand, Simon

Marcoux, Christine

Martinez Ferrada, Soraya

Morais, Robert D.

Roy-Goyette, Catheryn


Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.55 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet ** 1603430.90%
Marwah Rizqy 1553429.90%
Simon Marchand 1438927.70%
Alexandre Dang 35556.80%
Anne-Marie Saint-Cerny 16543.20%
Nicolas Lemay 4110.80%
Marianne Breton Fontaine 1790.30%
Christine Dandenault 1480.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5471.16%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (86.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   La Pointe-de-l'Île
   (8.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/10/19 Sam
It's not long since this was Bloc bread and butter, and with the surge, they should easily win, that was likely even without the surge. Marchand should get to parliament this time.
18/10/19 Marco Ricci
From Mainstreet Research today:
‘A third poll shows that Simon Marchand for the Bloc Québécois will likely take the Quebec riding of Hochelaga.’
18/10/19 Manny Toba
Mainstreet poll out today says this one's likely going to the Bloc.
18/10/19 R.O.
This had been an ndp riding but mp decided not to run again and according to a new mainstreet poll the bloc lead here over the liberals .
Quito Maggi? @quito_maggi · 16h16 hours ago, And a new Quebec riding, Hochelaga, where the @BlocQuebecois have a sizeable lead over their nearest contender, the @liberal_party
17/10/19 Tony Ducey
An open seat that has been NDP since the orange crush election of 2011. I think in 2019 it returns to the fold of the BQ.
17/10/19 Physastr Master
I think I'm comfortable calling this for the Bloc. It was low-hanging fruit to begin with, the Liberals are slowly imploding, and while I think the NDP support will hold up respectably here unlike the rest of the province (QS territory and all), it certainly won't be enough to win.
14/10/19 J.F. Breton
Avec la nette remontée du Bloc dans les songages et la cristalisation de son vote, s'il y a un 2e comté qui doit passer au Bloc sur l'île de Montréal, ce sera Hochelaga.
11/10/19 Laurence Putnam
Forget my earlier submission: Trudeau has blown a major opportunity, the NPD have collapsed and - surprise! - the Bloc is back. For a party polling at 18% a month ago I believe this would have been out of reach - they're knocking on the door of 30% now. This domino will fall easily.
15/09/19 GritBusters
While I'm convinced that the NDP has become so weak in Québec that they will not hold this riding, I don't see a nationalist stronghold suddenly going red again.
Count on the Bloc.
13/09/19 South Islander
Compared to 2015, the LPC and CPC are up slightly in QC, NDP have collapsed, Greens are up, and Bloc are steady. Rizqy almost won this last time against an NDP incumbent not seeking reelection again, making this potentially the top target for a gain for the LPC in the entire province, if not the country. Things look safe for the party elsewhere on the Island so they can also focus their considerable Montreal resources here and in Laurier-Sainte Marie. I would be very surprised if they didn't pull it off. NDP is worried about holding Rosemont and probably realize that they have no chance of finishing ahead of the LPC again here. The Bloc will take a run at this, but they have very little money and might be more focused on the many rural NDP seats up for grabs. Greens have no ground game or resources here. Only signs of the Bloc gaining ground or of a ‘vague verte’ would lead me to reconsider, but I've seen no such signs yet.
02/09/19 A.S.
If they continue to have pretensions to governance, the NPD didn't nominate badly (and this is, for the most part, QS territory--but the Libs don't need to be in a majority government position to win this, and it's the kind of seat that's generally trending away from the Bloc; even if the Dippers skew the picture, the fact that the Bloc was *already* behind the Liberals in 2015 tells you something. (Though that's more because of the Nouveau-Rosemont polls to the N, which inflect more t/w a Anjou/St Leonard type of ‘diversity’.)
07/05/19 Daniel Beaudin
I guess you could tag this one as a bellwether riding. If the Bloc wins strong here, they will have a majority of seats in Quebec, if the liberals wins it, that will mean they will have won themselves a majority government (unlikely for now), PC is a no show. The first option is most likely. Bloc scored 18% for voting intentions in an Abacus Data Poll today. NDP wave surfer Wade-Boutin has been an MP since 2011 only because the Bloc had nothing to offer to the Hochelaga people. Confidence in Trudeau or Blanchet from the voters will be the door opener for the new MP. On that one, I'm going Bloc for sure.
26/03/19 Laurence Putnam
With the BQ making a modest comeback and the Liberals managing probably the most left wing government in Canadian history, it's all a matter of which party can scoop up most of the NPD support. On one hand this riding has done everything it could to avoid returning a Liberal, something it hasn't done since 1980. On the other, there are a lot of ridings in Quebec you could have said the same about that finally went red again in the last cycle. All in all my hunch is that the Liberals finally win this one back. But a strong BQ campaign could yet prevail.
13/03/19 Sam
What little chance the NDP had of holding this no longer exists, and so it's a fight between the Liberals and the Bloc. Many projections suggest a win for the Liberals but the Bloc have a major chance here and can win if they invest the resources.
10/03/19 seasaw
The Liberals lost a close one the last time and the Bloc wasn't too far behind, the NDP support is down substantially, the question now is where will the NDP support go? To the Bloc or to the Liberals?
23/02/19 Marco Ricci
With the retirement announcement this week by NDP MP Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet, this riding may be picked up by the Liberals in October. The Liberals finished a strong 2nd here in 2015, and with the NDP down in the Quebec polls, this may be one of the reasons why Boutin-Sweet is retiring.

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