Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:47:43

Constituency Profile


Borgers, Ceylan

Desilets, Luc

Hakizimana, Joseph

Lapointe, Linda

Mikhael, Maikel

Roker Jr, Hans


Linda Lapointe

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



115.26 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Linda Lapointe 1878732.40%
Laurin Liu ** 1711129.50%
Félix Pinel 1475525.40%
Érick Gauthier 609910.50%
Alec Ware 11362.00%
Luis Quinteros 1580.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (86.1% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (13.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 J.F. Breton
Selon le plus récent sondage Léger, les Libéraux et Bloquistes sont au coude-à-coude au Québec à 31%. À l’extérieur de Montréal, l’influence du Bloc se fait le plus sentir : le parti est largement en avance en Montérégie (39 %), dans Lanaudière/Laurentides (45 %) et dans le Centre-du-Québec (36 %). Il y a de très fortes chances que Rivière-Des-Milles-Iles bascule du côté du Bloc.
15/10/19 Physastr Master
This is clearly very vulnerable to a bloc surge, and 338 has it going that way. Not a guarantee, the numbers aren't resounding, but definitely shouldn't be a liberal call. This site has had a really bad time properly forecasting waves in the past, and with polling aggregates having the BQ at 32 of 78 seats and rising, you need to very careful to make sure that doesn't happen again.
12/10/19 Sam
Before the huge uptick for the Bloc I questioned whether this could go their way. It's still not their best bet, but it is worth looking at now. I'd say it only Leans Liberal slightly.
04/09/19 A.S.
Another of the Laval-bleed Liberal seats (and the Bloc are bidding with an interesting author-and-Expo-historian contender). Here, the Liberal key was the Montreal-commuter-orbitdom of Boisbriand and Rosemere, with a touch of suppressed-ancestrality in Deux-Montagnes for good measure; Saint-Eustache, the largest community, opted more for the Bloc. (And in the middle of it all: the NDP's Laurin Liu, one of the Orange Crush's "McGill Five". Which in today's electoral terms, might as well be ancient history.)
28/04/19 Sam
Could this go Bloc? Maybe, but probably not now. I would argue the Liberals winning by the margin they did here, and their chance to gain some of the NDP vote (if they take enough, it's theirs regardless of how much the Bloc takes.) The Bloc are gaining yes, and they should win in neighbouring Mirabel, but their path back to status doesn't involve here, and this is far further out of reach than their targets, most of which are NDP seats where they are second or close, not seven points behind the incumbent Liberals. The most worrying sign for the Liberals is that the CAQ have always done reasonably well here, but there's bound to be seem crossover. I suspect the Liberals will win again, with the Bloc holding up and the NDP collapsing.
30/03/19 chris of montreal
Le Québec est devenu le nouveau bastion des libéraux d'après les sondages. Gain du Bloc peu probable pour le moment.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
Laurentides / Lanaudière is a fertile ground for the Bloc Québécois, with possible gains in October. But it's too soon to predict a winner. Let's see the next polls and local strategies. TCTC.

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