Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:41:57

Constituency Profile


AlShawa, Nahed

Bertrand, Luc

Debellefeuille, Claude

Faubert, Marc

Gottman, Joan

Larivière, Cynthia

Savard, Alain


Anne Minh-Thu Quach

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2149.15 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anne Minh-Thu Quach ** 1872630.40%
Robert Sauvé 1795529.20%
Claude DeBellefeuille 1745228.40%
Albert De Martin 613210.00%
Nicola-Silverado Socrates 8671.40%
Sylvain Larocque 2190.40%
Patricia Domingos 1840.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (74.36% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (25.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/10/19 Tony Ducey
Former Bloc MP Claude Debellefuelle is the candidate here in 2019, I think she wins a seat in 2019.
12/10/19 Sam
Agree with what others have said. There is very much a Bloc presence here, which has held relatively strong despite the NDP victories. With the surge, I see this definitely going Bloc, even if that surge is somewhat lesser than expected. Add to that the weakness of the local Liberals and you've got a perfect storm.
11/10/19 J.F. Breton
Les sondages locaux se succèdent, tout comme les sondages nationaux, et tous montrent une remontée marquée du Bloc Québécois. Une contre-performance de Blanchet au dernier débat lui aurait compliqué la vie, ce qui n'a pas été le cas. Dans cette région plus nationaliste et francophone du 450, il est normal de placer la circonscription de Salaberry-Suroît dans la colonne des gains pour le Bloc.
09/10/19 Nick M
Expecting a Bloc Québécois wave. Leger has them at 29 points this morning. I expect the Bloc to run away with this rising.
27/08/19 A.S.
Not least on account of the incumbent being anything but pure laine, this was a truly bizarre NDP hold in 2015, along the same lines as Maria Mourani surviving the 2011 Bloc blowout--and compounding the bizarreness is how prior to DeBellefeuille winning a second term in 2008, the riding had not reelected an incumbent in 20 years! Maybe the "sequel" to that is if it winds up being the only Bloc seat beyond Chambly--and given how the Salaberry zone shares a certain "blue-collar Blocness" with Sorel-Tracy, it's plausible; though they'd have to fend off the Lib leanings/Anglo pockets along the US border and a possible sinking exurban-Liberal magnetism along the N Shore. So it's still an interesting race; just not 3-way bizarro like 2015's.
20/05/19 Marco Ricci
This is probably now a race between the Liberals & the BQ. Former BQ MP Claude DeBellefeuille, who held this riding between 2006-2011, and finished a strong 3rd in 2015, says she will run again:
11/04/19 Laurence Putnam
A perfect example of the kind of seat, which I believe the Liberals will find 12-20 of in Quebec, which will shore up minor losses in the Atlantic and West, to give them a chance to keep their majority, as long as they remain competitive in the 905 area in Ontario.
NPD would have lost this with or without their incumbent. Only other party in the running is the Bloc and I'm willing to bet that it will take an incredibly strong BQ campaign to snatch it away. Seems unlikely to me this time.
16/03/19 Sam
This is going to be a tossup between the Liberals and Bloc, and I suspect it would've been with Anne Quach in the race. A remains to be seen if one of the two challengers pull ahead.
23/02/19 Marco Ricci
NDP MP Anne Minh-Thu Quach announced this week that she will not be running again. This could give the Liberals the opportunity to win this seat since they came a very close 2nd here in 2015.

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