Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:47:04

Constituency Profile


Aliev, Vassif

Beaulieu, Claire-Emmanuelle

Brunelle, Suzanne

El-Helou, Rima

Koutrakis, Annie

R'Guiba, Faiza


Eva Nassif

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



34.11 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Eva Nassif 2508246.20%
France Duhamel 1139121.00%
Barek Kaddouri 906816.70%
Anthony Mavros 726213.40%
José Núñez Melo ** 12802.40%
Brian Jenkins 2600.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2390.51%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (77.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Laval-Les Îles
   (12.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.91% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/10/19 Tony Ducey
There was some controversy over the Liberal candidate here. I know this area has been held by other parties recently but I think the Liberals will hold on here in 2019.
03/10/19 R.O.
Well typically a safe liberal riding in the Laval area of Montreal. one has to wonder if the controversy surrounding former liberal mp Eva Nassif will have any impact here. she’s been in the news and was questions around why she wasn’t allowed to run for the liberals. also articles online which indicate there is feuding among the riding association and new candidate had little access to any funds. however none of the opposition parties are especially strong here although the ndp and bloc have held the seat before.
15/09/19 Marco Ricci
Like A.S. said below, Laval Central used to be a BQ seat for many years -- they even managed to narrowly hold it in 2000, which was PM Jean Chretien's best election in Quebec. So it was surprising how much the Liberals won it by in 2015 (they held this area udner Governor General Jeanne Sauvé under Pierre Trudeau). But the Layton Wave in 2011 appears to have softened the area up for the Libs in 2015.
Annie Koutrakis was chosen as the new Liberal candidate this week because the Libs say Eva Nassif had not signed up enough members to comply with the rules, so who knows.
02/09/19 A.S.
Laval's the absolute epitome of suburban moderation, QC style--it can go routinely with federal waves-of-the-moment, Mulroney Tory, Bloc, Orange Crush (and indeed, Nicole Demers, who represented most of present-day Vimy, was one of the more visible BQers); but what's more telling is how its *broad* provincial comfort zone (i.e. not just the Anglo enclaves) remains with the PLQ, even vs the ADQ in 2007 and (mostly) the CAQ in 2018. So, Nassif or no Nassif, I can't see it switching unless the Bloc returns to 90s-and-noughts levels of support--like it or not, the federal Liberal brand hasn't been so broadly ‘valid’ in the province since Trudeau père was leader, and a riding like Vimy is certainly not the sort to buck such a trend.
25/08/20 seasaw
Eva Nassif was just dumped as the Liberal candidate by the party brass. The Liberal riding association isn't very pleased. A situation as such would've caused chaos in many riding's which might've put the riding in jeopardy for them. But this isn't like other ridings and whomever the Liberals choose will get in.
25/04/19 Laurence Putnam
Sam has correctly sufficed it to say that this is essentially a Liberal riding by default - this time.
01/03/19 Sam
This is another riding which hasn't always gone Liberal but will do again because of split opposition. Although Eva Nassif is hardly an important MP, the other factors will offset that; Laval still went PLQ provincially which is a good indicator, and the nearest party is the NDP who are 20 points behind and not gaining. Again, the Bloc and Conservatives have no real chance here, leaving the Liberals as the only party with a real chance.

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