Election Prediction Project

2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:53:27

Constituency Profile


Campbell, Stephen

Cull, Tom

Hammoud, Mohamed

Kosoian, Bela

Mathyssen, Lindsay

van Holst, Michael


Irene Mathyssen

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



115.07 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Irene Mathyssen ** 2068437.80%
Khalil Ramal 1721431.40%
Suzanna Dieleman 1489127.20%
Matthew Peloza 16042.90%
Ali Hamadi 3520.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5811.22%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (89.19% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   London North Centre
   (7.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Teresa J. Armstrong * 2527255.68%
Eric Weniger 1351929.78%
Lawvin Hadisi 37978.37%
Lisa Carriere 20504.52%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 10582.67%

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
The NDP candidate will keep the seat in the family and in NDP hands.
14/10/19 martin sarkissian
With NDP Irene Mathyssen in retirement, liberals will sweep.
13/10/19 Gone Fishing
In no way am I waving the blue flag here but I agree this a too close to call because the PPC candidate IS a popular councillor and the dipper has hermom’s legacy as the core of her campaign. Yes it’s London’s most left leaning riding but there have been a legion of uninspiring CPC candidates for years and the Lib’s best offerings have for several elections been well Hasbeans.
If the Libs had any momentum I think NDP legacy would be over here. Given their fortunes I think the question for Fanshawe may be a choice between a balance of power rookie and a possible caucus member in a CPC minority
13/10/19 Physastr Master
There's no way this flips with a wave building behind the NDP. Time to call it.
13/10/19 prognosticator15
This will be a close three-way race. NDP is certainly strong and concentrates on the riding for obvious reasons, but I wonder whether all left has become too extreme for a riding where most middle class despises identity politics. Libs have little incentive to abandon campaign here due to need to offset losses elsewhere in ON and also in Quebec as now seems increasingly likely, and Cons candidate Michael Van Holst has the advantage of being a popular councillor opposing municipal waste such as Bus Rapid Transit - and this sleeper municipal issue and the chance of the unpopular project not being funded by the feds if a local Cons voice is elected may benefit its candidates in London area, but here in particular, in light of Van Holst municipal politics - progressivist parties are on the wrong side of the issue, in particular as Scheer now put an emphasis on eliminating excessive infrastructure waste. Uncommitted vote may decide whether NDP machine remains dominant, Liberals gain (they were never far behind), or Cons gain the riding which arguably offers them the best chance in London in spite of not having as established voting base as in LNC and London West.
12/10/19 J.F. Breton
Dans cette circonscription qui vote traditionnellement pour la gauche, la très bonne performance de Singh dans les débats (en fait, la découverte pour plusieurs) m'incite à placer London-Fanshawe dans la colonne des victoires pour le NPD.
10/10/19 Mark R.
The NDP holds all three London city-only seats provincially and this will be a priority to hold. The resources being poured into this seat by the national campaign plus the three local MPP's campaigning hard - this will be an NDP win. Trudeaumania didn't work here and Doug Ford is at a 70% disapproval rate in Southwestern Ontario.
03/10/19 nysuloem
I wish that I still lived in this riding so I could vote for Lindsay Mathyssen. Her mother was a very well-respected MP for more than a decade, and I think Lindsay will build nicely on her mother's legacy. I do think the Conservatives will be a close second here, with Andrew Scheer so focused on pocketbook issues that really appeal to this riding.
27/09/19 ME
338 lists London Fanshawe as a toss up with slight lead for the NDP The ground game will deliver the riding to the NDP
28/08/19 Sam
Whilst it'll still be quite a close fight, I'm going to go against the grain and agree that the Liberals are the most likely option here.
27/08/19 London Voter
With the candidates now in place this would be a hard riding for the NDP to lose. Their office has been open for a month and looking at FB their candidate (daughter of the popular MP) she has been door knocking lots. Should be a NDP hold.
16/08/20 A.S.
Whatever the Mathyssen family's clout, by NDP standards it's all a recent phenomenon in Fanshawe--up until the provincial Rae landslide, the party didn't really have much of an electoral record in London, and certainly not to the degree of Hamilton or Windsor (or even smaller centres like Brantford or Cambridge). And Fanshawe's also predominantly postwar-suburban, which makes it (along with Hamilton Mountain) sort of *weird* among 2015 Ontario Dipper survivors. Plus, the populistic stream that makes it NDP also makes it 3-way viable; and it's very much possible that it could go on to be London's only *Conservative* seat this time around. (And the Libs may have had an "experienced" candidate in 2015--except that he was a McGuinty-sweep "accident" who never hit 40% provincially.
12/06/19 seasaw
The Liberals lost a close one the last time, but last time there was Trudeaumania II going on, this time though, Irene Mathyson isn't running, if her name was on the ballot, she would've won. NDP though has very poor poll numbers, the Liberals have dropped a bit but doing well enough. A weak NDP, is good news for the Liberals. Based on the poll numbers, I'm going with the Liberals on this one.
22/05/19 Stephen
I really wonder which of the Liberals or the Tories could credibly be expected to take this from the NDP. I agree that Singh is probably not a big help for the local candidate, but the NDP will have the best local organization, and I think having the incumbent’s child running is nearly as good as the incumbent in terms of getting the team out and working.
If the Liberal result in 2015 wasn’t enough to allow the Tories to come up the middle, nothing will be. You can see that they’ve got a ceiling here, and it’s probably not even a third of the vote. With an experienced Liberal candidate running under a very popular Liberal leader, the NDP still won by six points. This time around, I bet the margin will be wider.
01/04/19 Craig
While the NDP have never been super-safe here and Singh won't be an asset at all, it would take a lot for them to lose - a combination which is extremely unlikely in 2019. The Liberals certainly won't win here - they can't even do so in good elections anymore in London-Fanshawe and their attention towards the ‘creative class’ gets them nowhere here, reinforced by SNC-Lavalin.
As for the Conservatives, they've rarely topped the low 30s even in good times. They may rise some in the era of populism but it still would require a perfect 3-way split to turn into an upset win, which is looking extremely unlikely with the Liberals weakened. All things considered, Lindsay Mathyssen should follow her mother's footsteps to Parliament.
27/03/19 Sam
This isn't safe for the NDP at all. They're not out of the question, but could a split left allow the Conservatives to come up the middle? It's possible, although the NDP have recruited a reasonable candidate (Irene Mathyssen's daughter.) Either way, an NDP hold is very possible, but there are plenty of circumstances in which they lose it.
04/03/19 ME
The MP's daughter is running for the NDP and will hold the riding with the support of a well organized ground game
28/02/19 Dr.Bear
The NDP candidate, Lindsay Mathyssen, is that Irene's daughter? If there is a family connection there, that could help hold the seat for team orange. Never the less, family connections didn't necessarily help out the Blaikie kids in Winnipeg. With a bit of a slide from loss of an incumbent, I think London-Fanshawe is a three-way race with the edge to the NDP (provided Singh doesn't stink things up!). TCTC for now.

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