Election Prediction Project

Toronto-St. Paul's
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:19

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Carolyn

Climenhaga, Sarah

Kellen, John

Mukherjee, Alok

Truesdell, Jae


Carolyn Bennett

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



13.10 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Carolyn Bennett ** 3148155.30%
Marnie MacDougall 1537627.00%
Noah Richler 838614.70%
Kevin Farmer 17293.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2670.54%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. Paul's
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Jill Andrew 1884335.96%
Jess Spindler 1749833.39%
Andrew Kirsch 1378026.3%
Teresa Pun 16903.23%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 5211.18%

20/10/19 Tony Ducey
Liberal hold here. I thought Bennett would resign though.
15/10/19 jeff316
Aside from the old adage that signs don't vote, here is the general breakdown on signs. In the traditional Liberal areas, Bennett outnumbers both competitors 4:1. In more NDP-open areas, Bennett is 2:1 to Mukherjee. In more Conservative areas, Bennett is 1:1 with the Conservatives. Mukherjee will certainly improve on Noah Richler's showing, he may best William Mols, but he will not best Bennett. Look at the provincial election - the NDP won, but only in a squeaker in an election where the Liberals got trounced and there was no incumbent here.
15/10/19 Mark
The gap will not be as large as she has enjoyed previously, but this is still a safe call for the Liberals who have a ton of voters in this riding, which Carolyn Bennett has held for a long time and probably will continue to hold until she decides to call it a day. Barring a huge problem, this riding will stay red.
04/10/19 Andrew Drummond
For what it's worth, Alok's signs outnumber Bennett's 2 to 1 here. I know that signs aren't everything, but this riding has surprised before and might again?
03/10/19 MBM
I've lived in the riding for almost 20 years and while last year's provincial NDP win in St. Paul's was surprising (at least to me)it was the first time since I've lived here that this riding has gone through a close race. This one won't be close - Carolyn Bennett will hold this seat as long as she wants it. The bigger question is who picks up the Liberal banner for her when she decides to call it a day.
28/09/19 jeff316
Joe Mihevc aside, Alok Mukherjee is the right NDP candidate for this riding in the absolutely wrong election. Carolyn will make it look easy.
27/09/19 R.O.
Somehow the provincial ndp won this riding in 2018 , although its not at all a federal ndp target this year and even if it was it matter little. It likely stay liberal anyways , although was surprised Carolyn Bennett decided to run again.
04/08/20 A.S.
If 2018's provincial election demonstrated anything, it may be that for the federal Liberals henceforth, the NDP will pose a bigger threat in Toronto-St. Paul's than CPC. Which isn't the same as their actually finishing *ahead* of the Cons--it's more a promiscuous-progressive 'room for growth' argument--and speaking of promiscuous-progressive vote-parking, it's interesting that the Greens have something of a 'star candidate'. (Even if Climenhaga's 2018 mayoral bid got more debate-inclusion chattering-class buzz than actual votes--but still, if May-mentum led *her* to finishing second, that'd be saying something.)
22/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Even the provincial Liberals just barely lost the riding last year. Carolyn Bennett is a marquis name and while the NDP are probably energized from their provincial win,. they won't get much help from the national campaign who are going to be too busy trying to hold the seats they have to take on the uphill battle of taking on a long time Cabinet Minister in a riding that is just too wealthy enough to reliably return an NDP candidate.
09/06/19 Cory Martin
Even though this riding is held provincially by the Ontario NDP. It will remain Liberal.
10/05/19 Craig
Affluent and highly educated, St. Paul's is basically tailor-made for today's Liberal Party. It took a complete meltdown for the Liberals to cough up St. Paul's provincially (which was a complete shock and likely a fluke). Even with SNC-Lavalin (which isn't a big issue among the creative class), no poll shows the Liberals 20 points back in third place in Ontario.
In addition, Carolyn Bennett is very well-liked here and should easily win again. The Conservative ceiling here is in the high 20s, which is never high enough to win under any circumstances (in this era of right-populism, a decrease from 2015 is not inconceivable). While Jagmeet Singh might be an asset for the NDP here, they traditionally do very poorly among affluent voters. The result should be another easy Liberal win.
10/04/19 seasaw
This was once a bellwether riding, but now it is perhaps one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. The SNC-LAVELIN scandal may sway some votes to the opposition, however, it won't even be enough for the results of this riding to be a Liberal landslide
06/04/19 Legolas
The NDP got a really good vote split to win this seat provincially but I do not see it happening at the federal level, especially with Bennett running again. Easy LPC hold.
06/04/19 Sam
This is the one of the safest Liberal seats in the GTA and has seen several good results for them. With a prominent and dedicated, perhaps divisive (not that she would anger many of the voters here as opposed to elsewhere), MP like Carolyn Bennett, they'll hold this for sure.
04/04/19 Stevo
Ground zero for pinkie-in-the-air (to quote Doug Ford) champagne-sipping elites rendered even MORE elite by the housing bubble. Even though Carolyn Bennett has been a very poor cabinet minister, and even though the Liberals are in decline, it won't translate to much more than a slightly decreased share here.
05/03/19 MF
St. Paul's is about as safely Liberal as Westmount at this point. Filled with the 'too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP' types, Carolyn Bennett was able to survive the Iggy '11 debacle pretty comfortably. Unless they fall below 20% of the popular vote in Ontario, the Liberals are safe here.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Not withstanding the NDP upset provincially, this is a quintessential Liberal riding, too rich to vote NDP, too educated to vote Tory so Liberals would have to fall to single digits in seats in Ontario to be in any danger of losing this.

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