Everaert, Brian
	Gladu, Marilyn
	Kilner, Adam
	Laird, Thomas
	Lemieux, Carmen
	Smith, Peter Robert
Incumbent:
	Marilyn Gladu

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			105337 106293 47953 45594 1477.68 km² 71.3/km²
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Marilyn Gladu	22565	38.80%
	Jason Wayne McMichael	18102	31.10%
	Dave McPhail	15853	27.30%
	Peter Smith	1605	2.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		26112	52.58%
		14856	29.91%
		6931	13.96%
		1252	2.52%
Other		514	1.03%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Sarnia-Lambton    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction
	Bob Bailey *	26811	52.75%
	Kathy Alexander	18995	37.37%
	Neil Wereley	2246	4.42%
	Kevin Shaw	1856	3.65%
2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)
		8152	17.86%
		18722	41.01%
		16327	35.77%
		2109	4.62%
Other		340	0.74%

	21/10/19	Tony Ducey 24.137.73.188
Surprised that the NDP have placed 2nd here the past few elections. I still think the CPC win tomorrow night but the NDP will be their toughest competition.
	17/10/19	Observer 72.39.155.140
A rising NDP with a great campaign a dreadful Liberal campaign and the PPC eating Gladu’s lunch this will be one of a few surprises on election night.
	16/10/19	Barlingwood 176.93.197.26
I was debating with myself to put the NDP symbol there to get attention Or not but I see this as tctc now and could be one of the big surprises on election night. With the NDP fortunes rising and the possibility of liberal vote crashing to them as the obvious challenger to the Tories here this could be one of the big shocker surprise NDP victories of the night. You heard it here first!
	09/10/19	R.O. 24.146.17.200
Marilyn Gladu is somewhat of a rookie mp first elected in 2015 but increased her presence in Ottawa since then. Strong ndp presence in the riding but hasn’t ever been an ndp riding federally and mostly been conservative in recent years , provincially and federally.
	17/09/19	Dr. Bear 157.52.15.81
I really am curious to see where that 2015 NDP vote goes this time. If the Liberals play their cards right, this could be interesting and a surprise outcome. I don't think they will and a CPC hold is most likely. I'm just not ready to make that definitive call just yet.
	18/08/20	A.S. 99.225.32.21
I can't say 2015's low-ish winning share for Gladu was a surprise; against the broader 2015 tableau, what was more of a surprise was the NDP actually hanging on to a strong 2nd place. And unfortunately, many of those S Sarnia working-class NDP stronghold polls wound up swinging quite hard in a provincial Ford direction in '18. Notwithstanding the evangelical base, there's something that's never rung completely true about how deeply and enduringly Con support has entrenched itself in Sarnia since the mid-noughts--then again, one can make that counter-argument re how Sarnia came to be so NDP-targeted over that same time frame. And perhaps taking advantage of the perceived Jagmeet slump, it seems like the Libs seem to have *some* kind of early-nominating act together for a change (provincially, it was their only sub-5% riding in 2018!). Perhaps, too, that 'Ford populism' element could wind up defaulting to PPC populism, at least extrapolating from how the Trillium Party conducted some of its most 'visible' campaigns hereabouts in 2018 (and a neighbouring Trillium candidate is now PPC's local standard-bearer)
	26/07/19	seasaw 99.225.244.232
Let's not jump to quick conclusions, yes the CPC did manage to hold on to the riding in 2015, a bad election for them and a Red wave going through the country. But this was a bellwether riding from 1968-2011. The Liberals did finish third the last time, but the last time NDP did well by their standards. This year NDP is near record low and if the Liberals pick up 40% of their votes, coupled with PPC taking support away from CPC, this will be a Liberal win. TCTC for now.
	25/07/19	Laurence Putnam 96.53.49.70
It may look vulnerable to other parties, but ought to be fairly solid. It's natural leaning is Conservative and in a rebounding year as the NDP struggles; it's hard to imagine the Liberals shooing up past 40% here if they placed third last time. Sarnia-Lambton mayl never vote decisively for one candidate over the other, but provincially and federally since the right was united this has remained fairly consistently Conservative.
	27/02/19	Craig 24.213.108.184
Should be safe for the Conservatives. The NDP will likely not do nearly as well with Singh as leader here (rightly or wrongly) plus they have probably hit a ceiling as we saw last year provincially. As for the Liberals, they should be irrelevant especially with the SNC-Lavalin saga bringing back memories of their past governments (federal and provincial). This used to be a bellwether, but as we have seen the world over, blue-collar seats have made a rightward turn, and if immigration becomes an issue, that would likely resonate for the Conservatives here too.
	26/02/19	Sam 86.28.79.130
This industrial riding had a surprising low vote share for the Conservatives last time round; it was one of their lowest winning vote shares nationwide. Despite this, they took a majority of the votes provincially and now have a prominent incumbent. Even though they were closer than elsewhere no other major party will have this on their top-tier targets as it's simply less viable. It leans Conservative for now.