Election Prediction Project

Scarborough-Rouge Park
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 01:56:40

Constituency Profile


Anandasangaree, Gary

Hamilton, Jessica

Kwok, Kingsley

Sally, Dilano

Singh, Bobby

Theodoru, Mark


Gary Anandasangaree

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



53.31 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gary Anandasangaree 2991360.20%
Leslyn Lewis 1358727.40%
KM Shanthikumar 514510.40%
Calvin Winter 10102.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1120.27%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Pickering-Scarborough East
   (45.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Scarborough-Rouge River
   (40.5% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (13.9% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

2018 Provincial Results - 2018 Prediction

Vijay Thanigasalam 1622438.61%
Felicia Samuel 1526136.32%
Sumi Shan 878520.91%
Priyan De Silva 10142.41%

2014 Provincial Results (redistributed)

Other 4881.29%

05/08/20 A.S.
Redistribution resulted in 5 out of 6 Scarborough ridings showing transposed 3-way 2011 figures going into 2015...and this was the biggest wild card, being a new riding and all. And Justinmania turned it into a rubber-stamp landslide. Keep in mind, too, that this was the riding where 2015's former Con candidate had to be replaced as a result of 'Peegate'. I suspect status quo will hold here.
25/07/19 Laurence Putnam
Don't be fooled by the provincial result; it's far more telling that the Tories best result they could hope to achieve in a majority government year is 38%; and only at that because the Liberals totally collapsed. Those aren't the dynamics federally here, where closer to 30% has been more typical of the average Conservative result. This will be an uninspired but easy Liberal hold.
19/05/19 Sam
This will stay Liberal, the margin was huge last time. A bit like Waterloo, Miss-Malton and Surrey-Newton, it's one of those diverse ridings that tend to go another way in Liberal collapses. I suspect they'll take a hit, but this is a riding they're counting on and that no other party will target.
24/02/19 M. Lunn
Was a tight PC-NDP race provincially but that was with a Liberal meltdown. Much of the PC and NDP support here is quite soft and I suspect most of it will go Liberal federally. Even in 2011 this would have gone Liberal with the present boundaries. So if Trudeau had an approval rating of 20% maybe it would be up for grabs, but despite his drop in approval ratings, it is a long ways away from Wynne like approval ratings which is what the Liberals need to lose this.

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