Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Edmonton-Wetaskiwin
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:03:48
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Calliou, Travis

Doell, Neil

Drzymala, Emily

Garver, Noah

Lake, Mike

Wong, Richard


Incumbent:

Mike Lake

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

158749
110644

64260
57322

4842.44 km²
32.8/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mike Lake ** 4494965.80%
Jacqueline Biollo 1466021.50%
Fritz K. Bitz 66459.70%
Joy-Ann Hut 15952.30%
Brayden Whitlock 4950.70%


2011 Results (redistributed)

3119675.57%
589214.27%
23645.73%
16884.09%
Other 1420.34%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Edmonton-Leduc
   (39.71% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Wetaskiwin
   (30.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
   (28.13% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Vegreville-Wainwright
   (1.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


15/09/19 A.S.
99.225.32.21
Given how the riding's population jumped over 40% in 2011-16, the commission probably used farsighted logic in putting the ‘Edmonton’ before the ‘Wetaskiwin’--though next redraw, we might see something more like ‘Edmonton-Leduc’ at most. For those same population-growth reasons, I also wouldn't be too quick to call this as a 70-plusser; the Redmontonian bleed from Mill Woods (together with PPC eating at the edge) might even lead to a drop in share over '15. But dropping under *60%* would be a shocker, for sure.
19/05/19 Sam
86.139.26.229
For the sake of consistency the commission should've referred to this as Wetaskiwin-Edmonton, as that's more reflective of the riding's large exurban/rural element - and its resulting Conservative strength.
10/04/19 Laurence Putnam
50.68.187.24
As Miles Lunn rightly points out, this isn't even really Edmonton. Would be surprised to see the Tories under 70% here.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
174.7.100.252
This only includes a tiny portion of Edmonton and is mostly rural so with the Tories likely to do well in Edmonton while run up the margins in rural areas, easy Tory hold.



Navigate to Canada 2019 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2019 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2019 - Email Webmaster