Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|David Wilks **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
(78.72% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
British Columbia Southern Interior
(21.28% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|The way the NDP is surging in BC, I would not be surprised if the NDP incumbent keeps this riding.|
|This had been a long time conservative riding, whats interesting is David Wilks the former cpc mp who lost in 2015 got pretty much the same number of votes in 2011 as he did in 2015. But lost because voter turnout surged on the left in the riding as ndp and liberal candidates suddenly did better than past elections. He didnt return and Rob Morrison is the new conservative candidate this year. Wayne Stetski has been the ndp mp since 2015 and not really high profile in Ottawa. There is potential for the greens here too, they hit 10% of the vote in 2008 but fell back to 6 % the last 2 elections. Although I think it will return to the cpc unless the ndp does better than expected in BC.|
|The Liberal candidate, Robyn Goldsbury, is one of the strongest candidates the Liberals have fielded in this riding for many elections. Morrison for the Cons is not well known in the area, being regarded by many Cons as a parachute candidate, defeating well known Wendy Booth in a controversial nomination race. The Peoples Party's Rick Stewart is campaigning aggressively. The Con support may well be siphoned off sufficiently on the left by Goldsbury, and on the right, by Stewart to insure a return of Stetski. The Green candidate is unlikely to be a significant factor in the riding.|
|Frankly, the Libs doing so well in Kootenay-Columbia in 2015 shouldn't be surprising; if anything, compared to how the party did elsewhere in BC, they *underachieved*--and the bigger surprise was Stetski, who carried a bit of a defeated-mayor lame-duck stigma, actually prevailing against the Mulcair-catastrophe grain. He should count his blessings that redistribution flung the granola ghetto of Nelson into the riding, which gives him the benefit of incumbency--had that .4% not made a difference in 2015, or were Kootenay-Columbia to presently be an open seat, the NDP could well be flung into third...or fourth? Even *with* Stetski, they could finish third behind the Greens if Jagmeet proves truly Audrey-esque...|
|This is riding will either go to the NDP or the Conservatives but it is too close to call until we can see the Liberal candidate. In 2015, this riding saw a +10% voter turnout but the Conservative incumbent Wilks lost 600 votes overall while the NDP got a 9,000 vote boost and the Liberals +11,000. Relative to that, to win the Conservative Morrison will need a poor showing for the Liberal candidate, while for NDP Stetski to win he will need another Liberal-Conservative split (which is entirely possible given the rightward shift of the Sheer Conservatives relative to the radical centrism of the Trudeau Liberals) while stemming the NDP to Green losses. Another high voter turnout will also likely favour the NDP.|
|In an election where the Tories are rebounding significantly (and certainly so in rural BC) and where one might reasonably expect the NDP to win about 20 seats nationally, you can't really visualize this being one of them. It's between the Tories and Dippers, and I do think the NDP will still do fairly well - but the Conservatives have it this time.|
||Mark in Mexico|
|This one was a little weird last time. The NDP shed vote share, but the Conservatives shed way more, and the Liberals got their biggest share ever (!9%!). So the NDP won despite a declining vote share.|
It was also the first time since 2006 that the Liberals beat the Greens, for whom this had previously been a strong riding.
Based on current polling numbers, I anticipate the CPC increasing their vote share from 37% back to the low-40s. Any chance of an NDP victory rests on the Liberals returning back to the wilderness (3.5% in 2011!) and the Greens *not* returning to form despite their current wave of success in the polls.
Similar to my prediction for the other Kootenay riding, I expect small-g green voters to back the NDP -- especially those who voted Liberal last time. I'm not quite so sure about the Greens. For whatever reason, I see more of a battle between principled voting and strategic voting taking shape here. (Maybe it's a Nelson thing?)
Of course, the bigger difference between this riding and next door is that the NDP have a seven-point margin to work with, whereas here there is no margin to give at all. The Liberal voters of 2015 basically hold the balance of power here, and I see them going in four directions -- blue, orange, green, and red, in that order.
Leans CPC for now.
|Forget anything I said about Stetski having a chance, if this keeps going he's toast. The Conservative gains in BC will be most notable in the Interior, and with a Green candidate running and playing spoiler that could just seal the deal. Now, there's no chance at all of a Green victory, but they were very strong in Nelson-Creston, and there are many towns here I can see them doing very well in. In the Columbia River part of the riding, there will be many of those rural worker types who have no choice but to vote for the Conservatives as no other party will protect their interests. Rob Morrison is a star candidate who could make his way into cabinet, and whilst Stetski isn't a bad incumbent, the NDP have done nothing to promote him, and I can see them giving up on him in favour of his next door neighbour and Natural Resources critic Mr Cannings, who has a far better chance, and is more valuable to the NDP with their limited resources.|
|This was a somewhat surprising pickup in 2015 for the NDP, but that should be a one-off. The BC NDP's urban/environmentalist agenda is not popular here, and while a traditional NDP would be favoured in this mostly working class riding, Singh doesn't strike that tone like, say, Nathan Cullen does. The BC Liberals also made gains here in 2017 against the flow of the province as a whole.|
For those reasons, this is probably the lowest hanging fruit for the Conservatives to take back in British Columbia. The CPC have a strong candidate and the Liberals aren't doing any better here either - there are closer ties to Alberta than to Vancouver in the Kootenay area and Trudeau is loathed on the pipeline issue. Hence this should flip back blue.
|Wayne Stetski had one of the lowest margins of victory last time and it should be close again. He is an attractive incumbent but the Conservatives also have a star candidate in Rob Morrison. It was a shock for the NDP to actually win this last time and this went for the BC Liberals provincially, so with the Conservatives gaining in rural areas, Wayne Stetski may be in a lot of trouble.|