Election Prediction Project

North Okanagan-Shuswap
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:38

Constituency Profile


Arnold, Mel

Delfing, Kyle

Derkaz, Cindy

Reinarz, Marc

Sandhu, Harwinder


Mel Arnold

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16173.61 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mel Arnold 2749039.30%
Cindy Derkaz 2094929.90%
Jacqui Gingras 1790725.60%
Chris George 36085.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 40.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.34% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

22/09/19 R.O.
Longtime conservative riding although Mel Arnold not a well known mp, more than likely stays conservative . its also likely the greens do better than 2015 in these types of ridings in BC .
19/09/19 A.S.
Sort of middling among BC Interior Con ridings--the ‘bad’ CPC performance last time was more of a generic BC thing, the Libs were strong likewise on generic BC ‘15 grounds but not strong enough, the NDP fell back to third in what was likewise (you guessed it) a generic BC pattern, and the once-overachieving Greens were generically sucked dry by all-of-the-above. Which, in a weird way, makes this the *only* non-Peace River BC Interior seat I can assign to the Cons with any reasonable confidence (perhaps because the 2015 CPC winning margin was nearly double that of its nearest competitor)
22/06/19 Mark in Mexico
In 2015, Greens took their votes elsewhere, but in the two elections prior, they performed strongly in this riding with two different candidates. Mel Arnold is well-positioned to win again as there is no clear leading challenger. I am more curious to know if, with Liberal and NDP fortunes looking iffy at best, the Greens can return to form in this riding, and perhaps even take second place in what seems to be a Green-friendly year. Polling on the *provincial* level indicates that there is a strong appetite for the BC Green Party in Interior BC, and if that could translate to the federal level, this seems like a reasonable place for that to happen.
11/03/19 Dr.Bear
Many of the BC Interior ridings showed a strong showing for the Liberals in 2015, this one is no exception. Still, a ten point lead by the CPC is, I think, too much for the Liberals to make up. Never the less, a total collapse of the NDP vote could see it happen. I don't see that happening yet. I say CPC hold...for now...
02/03/19 Sam
The Conservatives performed badly here last time but still won by a margin of around 10%. With a split opposition, a Conservative retention is very likely and Mel Arnold, a quieter but dedicated voice for the riding should reinforce that. The Liberals and NDP are not gaining enough traction in these parts of British Columbia to change that.

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