Election Prediction Project

North Vancouver
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2019-10-22 02:09:41

Constituency Profile


Bell, Justine

Jadavji, Azmairnin

Orr, George

Saxton, Andrew

Wilkinson, Jonathan


Jonathan Wilkinson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



335.16 km²

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jonathan Wilkinson 3645856.70%
Andrew Saxton ** 1730126.90%
Claire Martin 53508.30%
Carleen Thomas 50157.80%
Ismet Yetisen 1360.20%
Payam Azad 940.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3230.64%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   North Vancouver
   (93.22% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
   (6.78% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/10/19 Tony Ducey
The federal fisheries minister will hold this seat.
18/09/19 A.S.
North Van has always epitomized Lib-over-Lab dynamics in BC--federally especially, but even provincially, through Gordon Gibson's spot of red in 1975 and continued strategic ‘investment’ all the way to the 1991 BCLib breakthrough. So once Justinmania hit, it hit here in a landslide--and the landslide's such that the Saxton-Wilkinson rematch is presently looking rather anticlimactic. (Saxton only won two polls in '15, both in upper Capilano reaches.) Speaking of anticlimactic, there's also the matter of CBC weather reporter Claire Martin making a serious Green bid in '15--all that was good for was surpassing the NDP share, but way back in single digits. (Let that be a forewarning for the overly Green-bullish out there--maybe even in 2019.)
12/04/19 Laurence Putnam
It was just announced that former MP Andrew Saxton is seeking the Conservative nomination to re-take his old seat. Saxton is probably the strongest contender to mount a serious challenge to Wilkinson, but I fear that Wilkinson is too well ensconced here at the moment, and that there is enough NDP support from 2015, while shallow here, to shore up some of the votes he will lose. The Liberals will not repeat their above 50% number here, in fact it could turn out to be pretty close, however I think for this moment Wilkinson and the machine behind him are still ahead of the pack. If it were to appear that the Conservatives are headed into even minority territory this could certainly yet tip.
28/02/19 Sam
Although this riding has gone Conservative in the past such are the demographics that this riding should stay Liberal. We saw this play out last time when Jonathan Wilkinson, who is now cabinet minister for a file pertinent to the interests of this region, won by a significant margin. It's hard to see the Conservatives gaining enough ground to overturn the margin, as this is nowhere near one of their top targets in British Columbia.
23/02/19 M. Lunn
Looking at the size of the margin last time around and considering the politics of this riding I suspect this will stay Liberal. It may go Tory down the road but that is a few elections away. This is more your traditional fiscal conservative type and although there may some wariness in Trudeau's leftward trajectory, right wing populism is the anathema here. Also with growth in rentals, this is not as fiscally conservative as it was 20 years ago.

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