Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
|John Weston **
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
(94.79% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(5.21% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|This riding went liberal in 2015 but Pamela Goldsmith Jones decided to not run again which surprised many. In recent years its mostly been a conservative riding but has occasionally voted liberal . one also has to wonder how the greens will do here as there polling well in BC. That could have a significant impact on the final outcome.|
|Quick update from the ground: while the Liberals still have a notional advantage here, it feels to me like a tale of two campaigns: Gabrielle Loren is obviously organized, out there, I would say dominating the sign war and people I know in all parts of the riding have been contacted by her. The Liberal is a no-name and in the Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky portion of the riding is going to take heavy competition from the Greens on his left flank. Keep in mind how high in income this riding is; that and great organization would seem to be the Conservatives' advantage here. |
I would say it's neck and neck.
|The leaning Liberal element here is best understood through a UK-style Lib vs Lab dynamic as translated into BC terms--that is, it's akin to those UK seats where the Lib Dems, rather than Labour, is the prime left-of-Tory force. Or conversely, in 1991's provincial Socred shakeout, this was a distinct cornerstone of BC-Liberal-over-Socred support. West Van, of course, is an absolute NDP black hole; while it's more of a Lib-Green axis that rules in Whistler. Generally speaking, things have swung away from the Cons in recent times as BCers have warmed to the Lib option after years of post-PET doldrums; so even if a whole lot of that Lib vote hives off to Green, it might not be enough to wipe them out even in PG-J's absence...|
|Pam Goldsmith-Jones was definitely the Liberals' greatest asset here. Now she's retiring, and the Liberals scrambling to find a candidate when the Conservatives, from what I can tell, are already fighting pretty hard, this is in play now. Add to that the shift in resources here away from North Vancouver, and it becomes a lot better for the Conservatives. That being said, I stand with what I said earlier that the Liberals have an edge here - since 2004, this has always been more friendly to them than the rest of the province even when Conservatives have been elected, but nevertheless the Liberals are doing worse than we all expected in BC (and not just the North/Interior/Bible Belt parts,) so this could quite viably go blue on a good night for Conservatives.|
|Breaking news: incumbent Pamela Goldsmith-Jones will not be running for re-election. Given the effect this will have on the local dynamics, on top of plummeting Liberal numbers in BC as well as the rising Green split which is a not inconsiderable factor in this riding, I'd say the Liberals are looking at a much tougher race than I would have originally thought.|
Meanwhile, the Conservatives have nominated their candidate and she's already out there building bridges in the community. Liberals could still win this, but with each passing day their scenario only becomes more challenging in this riding.
|At this point, it's too early to call this riding. The Liberal victory was by a very wide margin the last time, but the Liberals seem to be on a downward slide in BC. If the slide continues, they won't be able to keep this riding, if not they will.|
|This is a rather unique riding. West Vancouver (2/3 of the riding) is basically the Oakville of the west coast - VERY affluent and business minded, swing area between the Liberals and Conservatives. Yes, Reform won back in the day, but populism has fallen flat in the last decade here. As right-populism takes hold, I'd give the Liberals the edge (even with SNC-Lavalin) among those voters. |
The Sunshine Coast and along the Sea to Sky (1/3 of the riding) has a Green tinge to it these days. That said, there is a big risk factor if they jump to the Greens - would the vote split help elect a Conservative? Although the NDP are irrelevant here (they'll likely finish 4th) so there is one less way to split. That said, I think the Liberals will hold, although by a narrower margin.
|The Liberals won by a big margin in 2015, and BC really trended away from the Conservatives. The non-West Van parts of the riding is strongly anti-Conservative (Bowen Island, Squamish and contrary to the claim below Whistler - the Conservatives were basically tied with the Greens), and they're competitive in West Van too, especially with former mayor Pamela Goldsmith-Jones being the MP.|
|I would respond to the previous poster by saying that I should have perhaps been clearer in phrasing. This century, Liberals have done well here, apart from 2011. Sure, Reform won this in the early 2000s, but Reform were doing better than the Conservatives are ever going to do now, and they were always below the average Reform/Conservative vote. The Liberals nominated a great candidate in Goldsmith-Jones last time, and barring the major collapse which isn't happening, the Conservatives can't win this.|
|I don't know where the previous poster gets the idea that this riding 'leans Liberal, it was held by PC Ron Huntington from 1974-1984, PC Mary Collins from 1984-1993, Reform MP Herb Grubel from 1993-1997, Reform/Alliance MP John Reynolds from 1997-2006, was then won by Liberal Blair Wilson in 2008 before returning to the Tories with John Weston from 2008-2015. |
Goldsmith-Jones is a well known name and certainly does stand a good chance of keeping the seat, but I do not agree with the characterization of this riding as 'leaning Liberal' given that they won all of 2 out of the last 13 contests.
|This riding has always leaned Liberal despite going Conservative during Liberal bad spots. When the Liberals are competitive, it can go Liberal by a large margin, which happened last time. Whilst the Liberal majority may take a hit for a variety of factors, they won more than double their nearest challenger last time so it is in only a Liberal collapse that they have a chance of losing.|