Election Prediction Project

Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-14 14:17:48

Constituency Profile


Ruby, Jamie

Simms, Scott

Small, Clifford


Scott Simms

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39395.65 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Scott Simms ** 1651448.30%
Alex Bracci 1208135.30%
Noel Joe 422412.40%
Byron White 13634.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Scott Simms ** 2652374.80%
Kevin George O'Brien 647918.30%
Claudette Menchenton 21756.10%
Elizabeth Perry 2710.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 740.26%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
   (72.93% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
   (17.77% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Random-Burin-St. George's
   (9.3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

07/09/21 Terry K
Even with Liberal support collapsing by 10 points in the riding since the start of the election, they still have a sizeable lead over the Conservatives. This historically red riding should be a hold.
03/09/21 LD
Scott Simms has been around for a long time, and by all means appears to be well liked in his riding. A bit of a lackluster result in 2019, however I don’t think he’s in trouble here. Should be an easy hold.
19/08/21 A.S.
Not quite the same scale of '19 Con power surge as in BBT--though some were expecting more simply riffing off '15 figures (when the still-minimal CPC figure had a boost from an MLA bearing the standard. And the story's the same here: if the surge wasn't enough to topple the Libs in '19, the pressure's likely to have subsided by now.
13/06/21 J.F. Breton
L'Atlantique demeure un terreau fertile pour les Libéraux. Le centre de l'île est assuré de demeurer libéral.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Liberal hold. Scott Simms is a popular guy, and the Tories are not running nearly strong enough candidates to make this sort of seat competitive without a Blue Wave.

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