Dwellings occupied by usual residents:
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
|Gudie Hutchings **
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
2011 Results (redistributed)
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
(65.86% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
(34.14% of voters in current riding)
Reference - Pundits’ Guide
|Ordinarily Long Range Mountains would be an easy Liberal hold. This year there seems to be very little ground game from Gudie Hutchings in Corner Brook. She has a few signs out, sure, but overall there are more municipal and Qalipu band council candidate signs visible than any from the federal election. Driving around Sunnyslope today, I saw only Carol Anstey signs. The NDP's Kaila Mintz already seems to have an energetic campaign and she has quite a few more signs around than I would have expected. With the Liberal vote share falling 30 points from 2015 to 2019, we could easily see a three-way race here. I think Hutchings still has the edge, but it could be close, and turnout (likely to be quite depressed) will be key.|
|This riding is about as safe as it gets for the Liberals. I expect to see a record high in N.D.P support to protest Trudeau, but it won't come close to being enough to flip.|
|Of course it's entirely possible that O'Toole's visit here was a token visit to Newfoundland, and that Corner Brook got it as it was s larger population centre than Bonavista. Nevertheless, if the Tories were gaining seats in Newfoundland I'd expect this would be the last seat west of the Avalon to go their way, on recent historical precedent at least.|
|For the first time in my life I think this one is too close to call. Long Range Mountains has been a Liberal stronghold since 1980, and it has often been stated that even if the Liberals ran a sack of flour as their candidate here, they’d win in a landslide. I no longer think that is the case. |
I was born and raise in this riding, and I have seen several demographic and ideological changes over the years. While I would still consider Corner Brook to be a largely capital L ‘Liberal’ town, even here it cannot be denied the swath of blue signs that have taken over the area - there is very little red. Further out in the riding, this is more so the case. Something is changing in the air for certain.
In 2019, the Conservatives ran a parachute candidate in this riding, who, to my knowledge, did not physically visit the riding during the campaign. Yet, the Conservative share of the vote increased by 16%.
Conversely, Gudie Hutchings went from a share of 74% of the vote to 47% - a significant shift for this riding.
Now, with a very popular, local, and well established Conservative candidate in Carol Anstey the Conservatives have even more to gain. Despite Gudie Hutchings notoriety, experience, skills, and work ethic as an MP and business leader, she is certainly in trouble here. There is talk around town, and as a largely rural riding, this word-of-mouth is not to be underestimated. This is no longer a Liberal safe riding - the Liberals have their work cut out for them here.
|Erin O’Toole stopped by Corner Brook last week to visit with Conservative candidate Carl Anstey in what was certainly a bit of a head-scratching campaign decision. Unless their internal numbers are telling them something we’re not seeing I can’t quite figure this one out. Word on the street is that there are a lot of blue lawn signs in parts of the district, but Western Newfoundland has never had a pocket of strong Conservative support in the same way that exists in Central or Eastern Newfoundland. This will certainly be a Liberal hold, and if it somehow flips blue then it’s likely a sign that O’Toole is well on his way to a majority government.|
|Though even here, the Libs were denied a majority in '19--and if the Cons had nothing but a parachute to offer, the NDP served as vote-collector backup (and if it weren't for Jagmeet's Atlantic Canadian sickliness, they could have finished 2nd--20% already being impressive for these parts). I'd anticipate more status quo now.|
|Likely liberal hold although we should take note of the fact cpc and ndp actually did much better here in 2019 than expected and grew there vote in what would seem to be a naturally liberal riding.|
|Bastion libéral qui donne de grosses majorités. Peu de danger pour le candidat en place.|
|Easy Liberal hold.|
|Even at the Liberal Party's absolute nadir of 2011, Central/Western NL was still electing Liberals with enormous majorities. It seems highly unlikely that this will change any time soon. In 2019, the local Conservatives couldn't find a candidate, and the NDP in NL beyond the St. John's area is barely noticeable.|